Artur Rehi

Yet the pace of assistance and production aligns with peacetime needs, failing to meet the urgent demands of a nation fighting for its freedom.
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for Ukraine to win, it must at least receive what has been promised. The majority of U.S. aid funds remain within the United States, going toward payments for contracts with domestic manufacturers.
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continues to declare itself Ukraine’s strongest ally, its delays lead to significant losses among Ukrainians. Ukraine depends on international aid, and without the support of its allies, it would not have been able to hold back Russia’s advance for so long. However,
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program, only $13 million were committed to contracts. Approximately $10 billion remains unused, and its allocation will be handled by the new administration. For comparison, $4.6 billion in replacement funds were obligated during the same period. While the United States
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The outgoing Biden administration will be remembered in history as an example of failed U.S. security assistance policy. Enormous sums allocated by the United States for aid to Ukraine have remained uncontracted. Of the many billions of dollars provided through the USAI
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Due to the fall of the ruble, this fund, like the Russian budget, is depreciating. Beyond its success in information warfare, Russia has little positive news to report.
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will likely emerge about the shrinking of the Russian National Wealth Fund, which has been used to plug budget gaps and prop up the ruble. A central bank meeting in February is widely expected to result in another key interest rate hike.
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in Donetsk. Signs of resource shortages are becoming evident on Russia’s side, and it’s possible Ukraine has been waiting for this moment. Meanwhile, the Russian economy continues its decline. The country is currently in holiday mode, but by late January, more details
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rise daily, and conditions in occupied territories can only be compared to hell. Hybrid attacks on other countries will not cease until Russia is decisively defeated. Ukraine launched a new offensive in the Kursk region following a noticeable slowdown in Russia’s advances
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to remember the immense cost borne by Ukraine. Although Ukraine does not disclose its own losses, estimates suggest that at least 100 Ukrainian soldiers die on the front lines each day. These figures remain imprecise due to limited available data. Civilian casualties also
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Ukraine has been able to match Russia's spending in the information war. The swift victory of Ukraine - and most importantly, Russia’s total defeat - is in the best interest of the entire democratic world. Despite Russian military casualties exceeding 800,000, it is crucial
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electricity prices. Russia creates crises that its propaganda machine then exploits to the fullest. Economically, Russia is losing. However, its propaganda apparatus continues to be highly effective, leveraging vast financial resources and the internet. Neither the West nor
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populists, who place the blame on Ukraine and its supporters. This trend is widespread across Europe, though the specifics vary by country. In Germany and the UK, it’s migrants; in Poland, farmers; for Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, it’s gas; and for Estonia, it’s
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Russia’s biggest loss so far is Austria, but the far-right Freedom Party, now in power, may attempt to restore transit routes by other means. The core issue for these countries remains their dependence on Russia. However, the crises Russia engineers are weaponized by
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to influence public opinion across Europe. Propagandists are on the ground, producing videos showing freezing, impoverished residents left without gas. Although Hungary and Slovakia secured gas supplies through the TurkStream pipeline, costs have risen significantly.
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Ukraine in a negative light now serves their interests much better. The same tactics are employed by other allies of Putin and Moldova's neighbors - Hungary and Slovakia. The Kremlin uses these situations as part of a massive information campaign against Ukraine, aiming
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Russia exploits the energy crisis in Transnistria to escalate tensions in the region and shift blame onto Ukraine. Moldova offered assistance with fuel and gas supplies, but the government of the unrecognized republic refused the help. Playing the victim and portraying
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Although the government of the unrecognized republic is currently rejecting assistance from Moldova, how long can its people endure?
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Ukraine’s closure of transit routes delivered the final blow to Gazprom, though it continues to flounder like a headless chicken. Transnistria has found itself isolated, and it will soon be increasingly difficult for Russia to maintain control over the region.
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pressure. Russia has already lost this war. It lost the moment it invaded Ukraine. Western nations are starting to realize this, but it has taken too long—and this delay has cost Ukrainian lives. By this point, Russia has completely lost access to the European gas market.
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sector. The Russian labor market is also in crisis, with the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded—an ominous sign. Russia’s economy is far worse off than commonly believed. Remember, Germany lost World War I not on the battlefield but because its economy collapsed under
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interest rates was likely politically driven. Interest rates are the main tool for curbing inflation, which is now reaches 0.5% per week, though the reality is likely worse. A rate hike is inevitable, which will further strain an already fragile business and industrial
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partners who will defend Estonia regardless of NATO’s collective decisions. If Russia attempts to attack Estonia, it will face severe consequences. Russia is overwhelmed with other problems. For instance, Central Bank Governor Nabiullina’s December decision not to raise
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coming days, Estonia will receive HIMARS systems and 155mm K9 self-propelled artillery ordered two years ago. Estonia's army, although small, is mobile, well-armed, and NATO-trained. NATO F-35 fighter jets are also stationed there. This is in addition to Finland and other
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Lake Peipus. Any advance would be limited to one direct route from Pskov or across the Narva River. The "Friendship Bridge" in Narva would be destroyed if Russian forces began amassing near Ivangorod. River crossings have historically been a weak point for Russia. In the
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to provoke while simultaneously launching an information attack to intimidate the West. While an attack on the Baltic states cannot be entirely ruled out, Russia lacks the resources for such an operation. Estonia, though small, poses significant challenges due to
10/18

prompting Russia to launch attacks on underwater pipelines and cables using shadow fleet vessels. Some now speculate that World War III will begin in Narva, but this is not true. These messages are being spread alongside cable sabotage—typical hybrid tactics used by Russia
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first country in history to use naval drones to successfully destroy enemy aviation. Russia has already acknowledged the loss of the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Russia has increased activity in the Baltic Sea. Estonia has decided to disconnect from the Russian power grid,
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forces for a renewed assault—something Ukraine is determined to prevent. Controlling the Kursk region would give Ukraine a significantly stronger stance in any future talks. It is worth noting that Ukraine emerged victorious in the battle for the Black Sea, becoming the
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offensive in the Kursk region shifts the initiative into Ukraine’s hands. The offensive in the Kursk region strengthens Ukraine’s position in potential negotiations if they take place after Trump’s return to the White House. Russia aims to freeze the conflict and rebuild its
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