@jbuddavis.bsky.social
Environmental & Geophysics Consulting | CFB Analytics ๐ 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
๐Regional Bias in CFB Recruit Rankings
โซ๏ธNE most underrated region
โซ๏ธSouth & West appropriately ranked
โซ๏ธRural + Minor Metro consistently underrated
โซ๏ธBIG adjustment for value:
โซ๏ธ#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value
โซ๏ธ#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star
bsky.app/profile/jbud...
24.02.2025 18:32 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
The map view of this is interesting. Generally appears that Southern Urban Areas are Overrated. Conversely, Urban Areas up North are Underrated.
24.02.2025 17:16 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 2
๐Over/Under-Rated Metro Area HS Recruits
โซ๏ธMiami somehow underrated recruiting territory
โซ๏ธLA & SF: not THAT different
โซ๏ธPhilly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US
โซ๏ธBirmingham = Saban Effect?
โซ๏ธNon South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)
Iโll do a post on it soon, but itโs HS football recruiting related
22.02.2025 22:36 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
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22.02.2025 20:38 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0
๐Predictiveness of Official Visits pt 2
Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who:
โซ๏ธTake 4 OVs
โซ๏ธCommit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!)
โซ๏ธVisited many high-FPI teams
๐Official Visit Data Analytics
โซ๏ธRecruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE)
โซ๏ธOV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods
โซ๏ธ4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data
โซ๏ธOV Quality metrics are flat
โซ๏ธTLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks
right now performance is roughly equal to just using the expert consensus rank in terms of average draft value.
i think we can bump that up in v0.2 based on a couple data pipelines i'm working on
Working on developing my own HS recruit rankings using ML methods
Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right
This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going
Working on a ML model to predict future draft value for HS recruits
Itโs a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential
But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!)
Feature engineering is gonna be key here
๐UF 2023 Roster Vizualization
DEF
โซ๏ธSerious DL weight
โซ๏ธGreat size on FR K. James & Collins
โซ๏ธPut Weston @ EDGE /s
โซ๏ธT. Mitchell is a dude
OFF
โซ๏ธLove the OL WT & HT distribution
โซ๏ธHansen is gonna murder a DB
โซ๏ธSavaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types
โซ๏ธNice blend of WR sizes
cap
09.07.2023 04:53 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0https://www.theonion.com/man-says-fuck-it-eats-lunch-at-10-58-a-m-1819574888
07.07.2023 16:42 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0
Insights from SIS college-level "Defenders in the Box" data:
โซ๏ธResults are intuitive
โซ๏ธ4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run
โซ๏ธ7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass
โซ๏ธ6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)
How I Make Opponent Adjusted CFB Stats using Ridge Regression
https://t.co/G7rF11Wgsc
The first part of my data dive into the CFB transfer portal is up at @cfbnumbers.bsky.social
Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition
https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url
This is probably expected, but I've never seen it visualized:
there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.
Gonna move some of my most useful Twitter posts over here
07.07.2023 01:18 โ ๐ 5 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
๐What Factors Predict CFB Recruiting Success
โซ๏ธPart 1: Talent Availability
โซ๏ธRoughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location
โซ๏ธ200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players
โซ๏ธNo surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success
โซ๏ธDeviations discussed in Part 2
My home for the next two weeksโฆ still less toxic than a 247 board
16.06.2023 21:22 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0did some back of the envelope math on the rad exposure of 138 flights & 55,593 miles
probably a +50-75 mrem exposure
roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy
https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/
I've got 2 you're missing from the USS SCORPION Nuclear Torpedo arsenal
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/09/f66/NT-19-1.pdf
Billy Napier's Roster Makeover
- Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%)
-Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years
-Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50
