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Ryan Moulton

@moultano.bsky.social

Algorithmist https://moultano.wordpress.com/

7,651 Followers  |  1,222 Following  |  10,891 Posts  |  Joined: 11.04.2023
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Posts by Ryan Moulton (@moultano.bsky.social)

I picked it up randomly off Twitter.

05.03.2026 23:41 — šŸ‘ 0    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

There is an old programming adage that says you should never write the most clever code that you can, because you have to be even more clever to debug it. I wonder if there is any llm corollary.

05.03.2026 22:47 — šŸ‘ 21    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 5    šŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Singularity Music Songs about future shock, obsolescence, and the end of the world.

This singularity playlist is actually bringing me a bit of peace because it makes me feel like everything I'm feeling about this isn't unique in time or space. music.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

05.03.2026 22:10 — šŸ‘ 4    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

The conical labor twizzler.

05.03.2026 22:09 — šŸ‘ 3    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

The best way to elicit music from your feed is to ask them to help you build a playlist on a topic.

05.03.2026 21:57 — šŸ‘ 4    šŸ” 1    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

goes kinda hard.

05.03.2026 20:52 — šŸ‘ 17    šŸ” 2    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

I love that song man, cheese can't stop me.

05.03.2026 21:37 — šŸ‘ 2    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0
I’m With Her - Ancient Light (Official Music Video)
YouTube video by ImWithHerVEVO I’m With Her - Ancient Light (Official Music Video)

Favorite recent song in a weird time signature. This one's in 7. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xIh...

05.03.2026 21:28 — šŸ‘ 3    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

Man, if farming labor share ends up nonmonotonic that would be an interesting trajectory for humanity.

05.03.2026 21:24 — šŸ‘ 28    šŸ” 3    šŸ’¬ 8    šŸ“Œ 0
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San Jose and surroundings:
1. Trillions of dollars worth of companies.
2. Land use and infrastructure that look like the derelict suburbs of detroit.

05.03.2026 20:56 — šŸ‘ 32    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 6    šŸ“Œ 0

The pace of AI triggers my, "Chill out and wait 'til this all settles down," instinct, which is probably maladaptive in a world where nothing settles down anymore.

05.03.2026 20:52 — šŸ‘ 57    šŸ” 2    šŸ’¬ 7    šŸ“Œ 1

Chopping wood and carrying water.

05.03.2026 20:21 — šŸ‘ 8    šŸ” 1    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

It's very annoying to have a habit of scratching your head when you are thinking when you have a head injury*.

*minor.

05.03.2026 20:20 — šŸ‘ 5    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

Was that the main cause of this? I assumed it was the same as inflation generally.

05.03.2026 20:13 — šŸ‘ 0    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

I don't know. I guess I'm curious even about steady state 2% inflation. Who does that tax? (if anyone?)

05.03.2026 20:10 — šŸ‘ 0    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

Good luck with your superhero transformation. I hope the powers you get are ones you like.

05.03.2026 20:08 — šŸ‘ 3    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

This is an increasingly relevant economic fact that I don't actually know. If you tax the public solely through inflation, what does the tax incidence look like?

05.03.2026 19:59 — šŸ‘ 7    šŸ” 2    šŸ’¬ 3    šŸ“Œ 0

This seems like a lot, but even mideast war is apparently no match for overzealous fiscal stimulus.

05.03.2026 19:48 — šŸ‘ 4    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

If you can bop to music in that time signature, the number isn't really prime yet. For most people, 5 is the first prime. If you're into jazz, it's 7. If you're Indian or into prog rock, it's 11.

05.03.2026 19:40 — šŸ‘ 14    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

7 is the least prime number that feels prime.

05.03.2026 19:38 — šŸ‘ 11    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 3    šŸ“Œ 0

Every platform has to have one.

05.03.2026 19:32 — šŸ‘ 7    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

Thinking back on the golden age sci fi that straight-lines-on-graphs predicted we'd be on mars 30 years ago, and wondering if there are any lessons from that for the present. Were they just not paying attention to known constraints in their exuberance?

05.03.2026 19:00 — šŸ‘ 19    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 6    šŸ“Œ 0
My hypothesis is that AI will lead to less dramatic layoffs (e.g., the Block memo) and more a slower drip: companies will continue to fire at similar rates, but will hire at much slower rates. 

Those who are left will be expected to use AI tools--to figure it out--in order to pick up the slack from those who were let go. This will naturally lead to AI models being adopted effectively throughout organizations.

But the labor market implications for the economy are in some ways more dire than the dramatic scenario: exactly the type of slow drip of increasing unemployment and lower labor force participation that policy has the hardest time dealing with (policy is much better when there is a clear demarcated disaster).

My hypothesis is that AI will lead to less dramatic layoffs (e.g., the Block memo) and more a slower drip: companies will continue to fire at similar rates, but will hire at much slower rates. Those who are left will be expected to use AI tools--to figure it out--in order to pick up the slack from those who were let go. This will naturally lead to AI models being adopted effectively throughout organizations. But the labor market implications for the economy are in some ways more dire than the dramatic scenario: exactly the type of slow drip of increasing unemployment and lower labor force participation that policy has the hardest time dealing with (policy is much better when there is a clear demarcated disaster).

In a model where employees retain value only for their institutional/tacit knowledge, and not for their fungible skills, I think this hiring/firing behavior is what you expect. New employees become substitutable before existing employees.

05.03.2026 18:58 — šŸ‘ 7    šŸ” 3    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

Too principled, no principles, for a site to survive you need a medium amount of principles.

05.03.2026 18:33 — šŸ‘ 2    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

This is why I think unicode shouldn't have added codepoints for emojis directly. There should be \start emoji \end emoji codepoints with text in between that the client is free to interpret. Otherwise the cultural ascent of lesswrong will lead to a "bowels of Christ" emoji preserved for eternity.

05.03.2026 17:33 — šŸ‘ 3    šŸ” 1    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

yeah, that's why I said it's unlikely to happen.

05.03.2026 17:24 — šŸ‘ 6    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 0    šŸ“Œ 0

lot's of people coming for why's head because he talked about using AI.

05.03.2026 17:20 — šŸ‘ 12    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 2    šŸ“Œ 0

I don't think this will happen, but a truly poetic way for bluesky to die would be for people to get its devs fired one by one until the site implodes.

05.03.2026 17:13 — šŸ‘ 36    šŸ” 3    šŸ’¬ 3    šŸ“Œ 2

Ah, the Oliver Cromwell quote was not familiar enough to me for "I beseech you" to trigger it.

05.03.2026 14:39 — šŸ‘ 2    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0

I don't get "I beseech you" picturing a digestive system?

05.03.2026 14:33 — šŸ‘ 3    šŸ” 0    šŸ’¬ 1    šŸ“Œ 0