Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

There is something close to a de facto Labour/LibDem pact among centre-left voters.

The signal for those minded to support is "re-elect your non-populist MP if you've got one"

The challenge is persuading the Green-curious to be part of it. + Wales/Scotland dynamics may well shift after 2026

Two offers next Tory lesder could make could be something like
* give Farage a free run at 100-120 constituencies (where he is second + 30 more of his choice) if he does not contest 120 Conservative-held sears

* offer Farage deputy leadership if he quits Reform & brings just a dozen with him

"Unite the right" will be the dominant theme of the right-of-centre media in 2027 & 2028. It is very difficult to come up with mutually acceptable terms, given contrasting perceptions of who is the dominant parry

27% are seriously considering Reform and 28% the Conservatives (6/10 probability) though 46% of both parties supporters are seriously considering both at 6+ out of 10, despite the %maths

7) Defections?

Defections either way are part of Rivalry/Competition (eg Lee Anderson). Reform ultimately unlikely to overtake without a significant breakaway transfer

Defection of just the 5 Reform MPs (or Farage + any 2) could be a cloak and dagger Cons attempt to absorb Farage & kill Reform

bsky.app/profile/sund...

I think the main 6 models are
1. Rivalry on right (fierce/full-on)
2. Constrained competition [de facto geographic focus]
3. Some unilateral withdrawals but no formal deal
4. Withdrawal deal (assymetric/partial)
5. A more balanced withdrawal deal
6. Full 650 electoral alliance

Farage usually denies he is considering this. Why would he say this now? Is it to change the subject (from allegations and testimonies of his bullying and racism at school)? He must expect/want it to be revealed that he said it

www.11v11.com/teams/everto...

The first league meeting between the clubs was in 2015!

"Everton have never won a league game here at Bournemouth. Could all that be about to change?" - the Sky commentators suggesting this is a giantkilling!

The King grants the Mayor of London permission to use the GLC’s historic coat of arms The King has commanded that the Greater London Authority (GLA) shall be allowed to use the coat of arms that once belonged to its predecessor, the GLC.

The King has commanded that the Greater London Authority (GLA) shall be allowed to use the coat of arms that once belonged to its predecessor, the GLC.

www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/the...

The Home Office has started taking action on cases of Syrian refugees with pending settlement applications. People are being sent letters saying they have 21 days to provide evidence as to why they should not be returned to Syria. Panic is spreading.

Home Office recommences processing of Syrian settlement applications - Free Movement It appears that the Home Office has started writing out to Syrian refugees who have pending settlement protection (SET(P)) applications. I know this is

Did this very quickly, explains what is in the letter, about asking for extensions of time and some hopefully helpful points to consider when responding: freemovement.org.uk/home-office-...

What a profoundly nasty person

(also we seem to move ever closer to a reproduction of Orwell's description of Winston Smith's trip to the cinema, as the audience cheered images of people killed in the water "then there was a wonderful shot of a child’s arm going up up up right up into the air")

You can read the report, ‘The State of Us: Community strength and cohesion in the UK’, here:
www.britishfuture.org/publication/...

MRS Awards 2025 | Market Research Society | Market Research Society The Market Research Society (MRS) is the world's leading authority for the research, insight, marketing science and data analytics sectors.

The judges said:
“The State of Us report, produced following the riots in the UK last year, serves as the most detailed confirmation yet of the struggles communities face nationwide.”
www.mrs.org.uk/awards/mrs-a...

We’re delighted that our @jakepuddle.bsky.social &
@heather-rolfe.bsky.social, together with @jillyrutter.bsky.social of Belong, won the MRS Presidents Medal last night at the Market Research Society & Research Live Awards 2025, for the ‘The State of Us’ report.
www.mrs.org.uk/awards/mrs-a...

What's especially good about this (rad zine critiquers (sic) look away now) is that you won't find a more zestful, knowledgeable, enthusiast for Stoppard in particular, and theatre in general (and I mean in-depth history & minutiae) than the ever-youthful Michael Billington (86 💪).

Tom Stoppard: A Life by Hermione Lee - 1. Childhood - BBC Sounds Hermione Lee's vivid biography of one of theatre's leading playwrights.

Radio 4 is rebroadcasting its abridgement of Hermione Lee's biography of Tom Stoppard: this is the first childhood section

"His baby words would have been in his natal language, which he would soon forget"
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Great culture can save lives. Literally.

Amazing letter in today’s @thetimes.com about Tom Stoppard

Investigation report
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

It is an honourable resignation for an accidental breach. Hughes emerges well from that. There is a reasonable case for this resignation - done in the interests of the OBR - since it appears the flaw in the system now unwittingly giving early access to important info until revealed by the recipient

The user who got the report early started trying the URL (similar format to previous years at 5am) and got it on its 33rd attempt at 1135am when unwittingly made accessible early. Sonething similar happened in March, but it seems that has been discovered today.

OBR chair resigns after review into how budget was leaked early on its website
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

There was maybe a 45 minute window where you could get coverage of what was actually in the budget and it was, crucially, the period when it was leaked by the OBR but before it was announced.

White paper was trying to bear down (scrap nhs/care bespoke visa) to get under 250k. Some concern events might keep it at 400k. Didn't anticipate pace of dip

Yet chose not make dramatic changes (eg poststudy visa at 18 months, rather than 12 or conditional) because of uni finances & fiscal impact.

It is plausible the numbers will fall further: there are new restrictions after these falls (though not on scale of Dec 2023). It is plausible they tick up again (emigration 2025-26 will be higher than 2028-29 because immigration peaked 2022-23). No rationale for this govt to say 200k is too high

If the Chancellor had told the OBR what the Home Secretary says here is a firm commitment of the government, she would need > £7.5 billion of tax rises or spending cuts to afford to lift the two child limit. The fiscal forecast is based on not cutting immigration further & it drifting up to > 300k

Its possible to maintain fiscal position while somewhat reducing numbers (via greater selectivity) but Labour government's language about net 205k being too high has not been thought through - just repeating language of net 600k, net 400k, net 340k as it dropped lower, quicker than they anticipated