Andrew Norton

Legislation for demand driven funding for Indigenous medical students introduced today. But it probably isn't a good idea. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/10/09/d...

The last university over-enrolment crackdown – some possible lessons As announced last year, the government plans to crack down on so-called ‘over-enrolments’ – enrolling additional students on a student-contribution only basis once all a universit…

With its policy on so-called over-enrolments the government risks reducing higher education opportunities in 2026. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/09/25/t...

2024 graduate employment outcomes and early 2025 trends The 2024 Graduate Outcomes Survey finally came out this week. As recently as 2021 the GOS came out in the year it covered, not September the following year. The government’s inability/refusal…

Graduate employment outcomes worsened in 2024 comapred to 2023. But ABS data suggests a partial recovery in 2025. My analysis of this week's graduate jobs data. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/09/19/2...

The future of voluntary HELP repayments In recent years voluntary HELP repayments increased significantly, peaking at $2.9 billion in 2022-23, before dropping back to $992 million in 2024-25 (according to data released last week). This p…

Voluntary HELP repayments are unlikely to reach recent peaks again. My explainer. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/09/16/t...

Why is demand for mature-age undergraduate education shrinking? I have an article in The Conversation this morning on why demand for undergraduate higher education has been weak in recent years. I looked at school leavers in this July 2025 post. This post expan…

Mature age demand for undergraduate education is well down. My new blog post looks at why. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/29/w...

Australian uni enrolments have declined. But is Job-ready Graduates to blame? Something major has happened to student demand in recent years. But how much of this is due to the fees students are paying?

Demographics and a strong labour market have held uni enrolments down. My latest for The Conversation. theconversation.com/australian-u...

University under-enrolment in the COVID and after years Recently the Department of Education published 2021-2022 data on payments under the Higher Education Continuity Guarantee, a 2021-23 Coalition program to compensate universities for under-enrolment…

Over 2020-2022 the government paid $550 million for student places that were never delivered. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/25/u...

Has funding for Commonwealth supported students been cut? With universities back job shedding, academics and their unions are looking for someone to blame. University leaders and consultants are being attacked for poor decisions. The government also gets …

Funding for Commonwealth supported university students increases in most years - but less quickly than increases in costs. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/22/h...

Gender-based violence legislation, Part 3: Reporting and penalties for higher education providers The first post in this series outlined the meaning of gender-based violence and processes that apply to all higher education staff and students. The second post looked at processes when a complaint…

Gender-based violence legislation - reporting requirements and penalties. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/18/g...

Gender-based violence legislation: Part 2, Processes for victims and perpetrators My first post on the higher education gender-based violence bill and its draft code looked at how gender-based violence is defined and the broad obligations placed on higher education providers and…

Processes for disclosers of gender-based violence and accused respondents under the proposed new uni legal code. As drafted, it has omissions and deficiencies. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/15/g...

Gender-based violence legislation: Part 1, Definitions and requirements for all higher education providers, staff and students Legislation on ‘gender-based violence’ in higher education is back in Parliament. Its principal purpose is to provide a legal foundation for a National Higher Education Code to Prevent …

Complex new laws will require unis to be more proactive against 'gender-based violence'. The first part of my explainer. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/14/g...

University funding systems and what graduates see as important in a job For a side-project I’ve recently engaged with the subject of whether higher education funding systems shape the educational and career choices of students and graduates. On one theory, where …

What Australian graduates see as important in a job. Australia compared to eight other countries. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/11/u...

Graduate income fluctuations and HELP repayment Last week I raised concerns about the new HELP repayment system increasing the number of HELP debtors who face very long repayment times or lifetimes of student debt. The calculations in that post …

For female graduates full-time work rates peak in their late 20s, but longitudinal data shows significant movements in and out of part-time work.

Most female part-time workers earn less than the new $67K HELP repayment threshold - a risk of compounding indexation. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/08/06/g...

Australia’s student caps will ease up in 2026, but times will still be tough for international education After two years of trying to reduce international student numbers, the Albanese government will soften its approach in 2026.

After two years of policy measures to bring down international student numbers a modest relaxation of policy for 2026. My Conversation explainer. theconversation.com/australias-s...

Will the new HELP repayment system make high EMTR problems better or worse? The new HELP repayment system being legislated this week will move from repaying a % of total income to a % of income above the repayment threshold, a marginal system. In introducing the bill to Pa…

Under the new HELP repayment system grads earning >$67K will pay the ATO at least 47 cents in the dollar. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/07/31/w...

I do but won't have time to put them in a chart this afternoon. But as an example in the 30th percentile $40K female analysis under the proposed system only $9234 in repayments are made, compared to $44,164 under the current system.

The new HELP repayment system and lifetimes of student debt The prime minister says that a degree should not come with a lifetime of debt. For that goal, the government’s HELP legislation introduced last week is contradictory. It will cut all debt owe…

The government's proposed HELP repayment system puts more female debtors at risk of a lifetime of debt. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/07/29/t...

International students and the rental market The housing section of the RBA’s report last week on international students and the economy had higher education media dismissing the contribution of students to rent increases as a ‘fu…

Working out what pressure international students put on the rental market is difficult. But the RBA may have underestimated how many students are renting. My latest blog post. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/07/28/i...

The history and politics of the first student debt repayment threshold The government’s HELP legislation, cutting student debts by 20% and introducing a new repayment system, was introduced into Parliament yesterday. While I have criticisms of the 20% cut, it wi…

The government plans to increase the income at which student debt is repaid from $56,156 to $67,000. Higher thresholds impliedly accept an earlier argument that graduates should face less financial risk than other people who benefit from government programs.
andrewnorton.id.au/2025/07/24/t...

Labor’s new bill would cut HELP loans by 20%. But it also risks locking some graduates into a ‘debt treadmill’ The debt changes will deliver major benefits to recent graduates, but much less to current students and nothing to future students.

The government's changes to student loans are good politics. The policy is less impressive. theconversation.com/labors-new-b...

At an abstract level, yes. But after a uni enrolment overshoot in the 2010s that had negative consequences for many (student debt, career detours) I am cautious about saying that current more subdued demand is necessarily a problem, other than that is is putting financial pressure on unis.

Where are the young people who are not at university? Earlier this month I wrote a post showing that higher education enrolments at age 19 years, and the domestic participation rate at age 19, were down in 2023 compared to 2022. This post explores pos…

In my speculation about broader reasons why higher ed demand is down, 2 of my 3 explanations - increased employment and vocational education enrolments - are broadly benign. Worsening school performance is not. andrewnorton.id.au/2024/11/28/w...

There may be some demographic quirks partly explaining this result. The Department uses a metric that classifies low SES based on the 15-64 year old population. But when we narrow down to the ages when people are most likely to attend uni the high SES groups have gained population share since 2016.

Yes, QILT data. The Census is usually the best option which has detailed field of education and occupational data. But only once every 5 years of course.

But engineering outcomes are good.

The grad outcomes survey for 2024 has not been released but generally IT graduates do a bit worse than other grads in the short term.

Generally STEM is stronger than non-STEM, but only IT and engineering are clearly defying the overall downward trend in demand.

For the humanities and social sciences the problems start well before Job-ready Graduates, although it cannot have helped.

Undergraduate demand for non-STEM fields has declined.

Despite an increase in applications for the 2024 academic year, school leaver interest in higher education remains below mid-2010s levels University applications data for 2022 to 2024 was finally released late last week, giving us another data source on demand for higher education. This post focuses on recent school leavers. The char…

At least for academic year 2024, school leaver demand for higher education remained weak. andrewnorton.id.au/2025/07/14/d...