@elerianm.bsky.social
Per the Financial Times chart below, US wage growth for the lowest-paid has now slumped below that for the highest-paid, widening the considerable inequalities in total pay and wealth.
#economy #inequality #wages @financialtimes.com
...
This is one of the reasons why communication is a focus of the Federal Reserve's ongoing review of its Monetary Policy Framework.
We could gain more clarity on this at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21-23), or soon thereafter.
#economy #markets #federalreserve
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As this Bloomberg chart illustrates, market expectations for rate cuts this year have been quite volatile, notwithstanding the regular press conferences, lots of other "Fed speak," and quarterly SEPs.
...
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From the Financial Times:
"Banks and Big Tech are booming but slowing US growth is hurting other companies across the board."
#economy #markets #tech #banks @financialtimes.com
From the book, “Empire of AI.”
03.08.2025 14:42 — 👍 22 🔁 1 💬 4 📌 0
Per this graph, from Apollo's Torsten Slok, of the Milliman Index of the 100 largest US corporate defined benefit pension plans:
As a group, the plans have eliminated their multi-year funding gap thanks to supportive stock and bond markets and, in the case of some, cash injections from the parent.
Please follow this link for details on the week ahead for the global economy and markets. Thank you.
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#economy #markets #growth #inflation #tariffs #trade #china #europe
The conversation with Mike Santoli on data, the labor market, monetary policy, and the bond market.
Thanks, Mike, for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
... September Fed rate cut surged from under 40% after Chair Powell's relatively hawkish remarks on Wednesday to over 80% today, following the release of the jobs report.
#economy #markets #stocks #bonds
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While the largest US stock market losses in months captured headlines, the government bond market witnessed eye-popping moves in yields, including a 28 basis point drop in the 2-year Treasury.
This dramatic shift came as the market's probability of a ...
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Thank you, Michael Santoli, for this afternoon's interesting conversation on CNBC's Closing Bell.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
@cnbc.com #economy #markets
…
It would follow another week of intense Presidential criticism of Chair Powell.
Expect media coverage of this Fed process to take on much more than in the past the tone and intensity typically seen in the coverage of Supreme Court nomination.
#economy #FederalReserve #markets
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More breaking news on an already eventful day!
This gives President Trump new opportunities regarding the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, including the possibility to nominate in the next few days a de facto “shadow chair” should he wish to do so….
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Please find below the usual end-of-month performance table for major assets/asset classes.
July saw solid returns overall, driven by
Impressive equity returns in China, Japan, and the US;
A surge in the price of Bitcoins; and
A bounce in oil prices.
#economy #markets #stocks #oil #bitcoin
This significant move down in US govt bond yields is accompanied by market chatter that the two dissenting Fed Governors have been "vindicated."
While I did argue publicly for a July Fed rate cut due to underlying economic fragility, I would not go overboard based on just this morning's jobs report.
Many analysts are pressed to provide clear-cut conclusions on how the latest US tariff announcements will affect individual countries, industries, companies, and the global economy. It's hard to do except at the very macro level.
Here's why:
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-new-ag...
#tariffs
... creation for the prior two months was revised down by a total of 258,000.
Labor force participation also ticked down, from 62.3% to 62.2%.
#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #wages
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When viewed in its entirety, the monthly US jobs report was weaker than expected. Specifically, ...
While the unemployment rate (4.2%) and monthly wage growth (0.3%) met consensus expectations, the economy added only 73,000 jobs, missing the forecast of some 100,000. Also, job ...
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... press conference, they are
(i) more concerned about a potential weakening of the economy and, in particular, of the labor market; and
(ii) less worried about the risk of persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs.
#economy #markets #federalreserve #jobs #inflation
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As you know, two Federal Reserve Governors dissented on Wednesday for the first time in over 30 years.
Today, they published their reasons for doing so (www.federalreserve.gov), stressing the risk of a "wait and see" approach to policy.
Relative to what Chair Powell said at his post-FOMC....
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An elegant formulation by The New York Times to summarize the latest U.S. tariff announcements.
#economy #tariffs #markets #trade
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, The Times is reporting that
"Confidence in the British economy among business leaders has tumbled to its lowest level since the Brexit vote."
The main concerns center on possible tax increases and the impact of US tariffs.
#economy #uk #markets
... morning’s jobs report will provide additional insights into the workings of the labor market from both, and this is important, the demand and supply sides.
More to follow.
#economy #markets #jobs #employment #unemployment #wages #tariffs
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In terms of the two main headline numbers, the consensus forecasts are looking for job creation of around 100,000 in July, down from June’s 147,000, and for the unemployment rate to edge higher from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Together with earnings and labor force participation, this ...
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Good morning.
In addition to absorbing the news on the latest evolution of the US tariff regime--and there is a lot to absorb in terms of possible global, country, and sector effects--economists will be assessing America’s monthly jobs report, scheduled to be released in just under three hours....
Good morning.
FYI, my thoughts on the interplay among three economic and financial factors—one positive and two less so—that will likely determine whether US equity markets can build on their impressive rally:
www.ft.com/content/a946...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets
Once again, it is the post-FOMC press conference that moves the markets:
Stocks fall, bond yields rise, and the dollar strengthens as Chair Powell sounds more hawkish than many expected on the outlook for policy rates.
#economy #markets #FederalReserve
As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged with two governors dissenting.
The Statement pointed to both moderating economic activity and still elevated inflation.
Now the interest turns to Chair Powell’s press conference.
#economy #markets #federalreserve
Here is the text of the presentation I made last week at the World Bank's Annual Conference on Development Economics -- ABCDE.
blogs.worldbank.org/en/developme...
#growth #economy #developingcountries #developmenteconomics #abcde25
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The Eurozone’s 0.1% quarterly growth defied those who had anticipated a larger pullback after the 0.6% rate for Q1 powered by the front-loading of exports; and
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted by 0.1%
#economy #markets
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