Mohamed A. El-Erian

…
In addition to the lack of overall clarity, these numbers will keep the analytical debate alive over whether supply or demand is driving current labor market dynamics.
#economy #jobs #employment #markets
2 of 2.

The latest JOLTS report for October offers a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market.
Layoffs rose to 1.85 million — the highest since early 2023 — while hiring slowed. Yet job openings climbed to 7.67 million, the most in nearly half a year and well above expectations (7.12 million).
…
1 of 2.

The significance of the next Fed chair choice While short-term market moves may be less dramatic than expected, profound changes are ahead for the central bank

... key to maintaining its political autonomy and maximizing its contributions to long-term economic well-being.

www.ft.com/content/17ec...

#economy #markets #FederalReserve #growth

2 of 2

The significance of the next Fed chair choice While short-term market moves may be less dramatic than expected, profound changes are ahead for the central bank

Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why the significance of the next Federal Reserve Chair goes far beyond future rate adjustments.
Crucially, the new Chair will set the tone for much-needed reforms to strengthen the Fed's effectiveness.
This is ...

1 of 2

... and, perhaps, financial stability talk.
(While on the Fed, please see next post on the significance of the next Chair.)
#economy #markets #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy #growth #jobs #inflation #GeminiAI
(Image generated by Google's Gemini AI.)

2 of 2

The Federal Reserve's 2-day policy meeting kicks off today.
Strong Market Expectation (90%): 25 bps rate cut.
The Catch: Likely a hawkish packaging.
Other things to watch for: Officials’ characterization of economic developments and prospects, balance sheet plans ...

1 of 2

Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.

The forward policy guidance of Australia's central bank is an extended pause/rate hike.
This hawkish tilt is prompted by economic strength and inflation risks "tilted to the upside."
Another example of the change in global central banking from highly correlated policy stances to more divergent ones

...
As momentum builds further—which it will—the winners won’t just be the smartest. They will be the ones that combine technical prowess with structural advantages, including substantial, diversified internal revenue generation.
#economy #AI @wsj.com @nytimes.com #markets

2 of 2

The corporate AI arms race isn’t just about tech; it’s also about durable structural advantages, including sustainable financing.
As this WSJ article highlights, some firms are already having to consider hard pivots. This is part of the dispersion phenomenon I discussed in my recent NYT article...

... on the labor market improved. Counter to other indicators, the expected probability of job loss fell while that of finding a job rose.
Please see the full results below. 👇
#economy #Inflation #jobs #employment #markets

2 of 2

The latest NY Fed survey results just dropped.
Most of the data reinforces signals from other indicators, including inflation expectations anchored around 3%.
But here is the good surprise in the survey:
Household sentiment ...

1 of 2

Per CNBC, “China’s exports massively beat market expectations in November as manufacturers rushed to ship out inventory on the back of a trade deal with Washington.”
#economy #china #trade #markets

Per the FT: “An Atlanta Federal Reserve analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that, after years of above-trend growth, pay for America’s lowest earners has slowed more sharply than for the highest.”
And this as the US labor market risks weakening further.
#economy #wages #inequality

Good morning
Here’s the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
www.linkedin.com/posts/mohame...
#economy #markets

Per Torsten Slok, “a record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old.”
This challenges the idea that the tech-driven boom of the past decade would have made such a diatributuon skew younger.
#economy #markets #wealth #inequality

From the @wsj.com: “The booming industry of AI is like catnip to economics researchers. It’s new, rich in information and holds the potential to rearrange the economy.”
#economy #ai #economics

… near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected bond volatility, just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound.”
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility

Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering…

... see inflation at 4.1% (1-year) and 3.2% (5-10 years).
September Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%, somewhat cooler than consensus forecasts. The headline measure rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with the consensus forecast..
#economy #federalreserve

Two notable data points from the US today:
Consumer Confidence: Sentiment rose for the first time in nearly six months, jumping from 51 to 53.3 (beating the consensus forecast of 52). This was fueled entirely by the forward-looking component, which rose to 55.
Inflation Expectations: Consumers...

Despite a solid bond auction, Japanese government bond yields have continued to climb — reaching highs not seen in nearly 20 years.
While this rise has added some upward pressure on global yields, the spillover effects remain fairly well contained for now.
#economy #markets #japan #jgb.

... inherently volatile — especially around holiday weeks like Thanksgiving — this drop will still attract attention to see whether this is a durable trend or just seasonal noise masking a cooling labor market.
#economy #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #jobs #markets

2 of 2

While on US data:
Weekly jobless claims just came in significantly below expectations: 191,000 versus the consensus forecast of 220,000, the lowest since 2022.
While this weekly series is ...

1 of 2

...layoffs in November, a decline from the October spike but still up 23.5% year-on-year.
The main takeaway: Spending is holding up, but job (and, therefore, income) security may come under pressure.
The question: Which will prevail in 2026?

#economy #labormarket #ChallengerReport #markets

The contrast in US consumer-related data continues this morning.
On one hand, corporate earnings—highlighted by Dollar General this morning—signal impressively robust consumer spending.
On the other, labor market data sends a more uncertain signal:
The latest Challenger Report shows 71,321...
1 of 2

From John Authers’ daily note:
“Remarkably, and counter to decades of prior experience, the average inflation rate in emerging economies is now slightly lower than in the developed world, where price rises have started to accelerate again.”
#economy #markets #em #EmergingMarkets #inflation

Stephen Witt wins FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year ‘The Thinking Machine’ tells the inside story of how Nvidia became the world’s most valuable corporation

...of six books.
Finally, my deep thanks to Roula Khalaf (Chair) and my fellow jury members for the open, engaging, and constructive deliberations, and to Andrew Hill, the architect of this wonderful process.
For more on this year's competition, please see below. 👇
www.ft.com/content/ee20...

Stephen Witt wins FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year ‘The Thinking Machine’ tells the inside story of how Nvidia became the world’s most valuable corporation

And the winner of the Business Book of the Year is... The Thinking Machine!
Huge congratulations to the author, Stephen Witt, for this engaging and compelling book on Nvidia and its leader, Jensen Huang.
Congratulations also to all the authors featured in what constituted a truly great shortlist...

US ADP report for November shows largest monthly job losses (32,000) since early 2023, undershooting the consensus forecast.
Re sectors: job losses were evenly distributed between goods and services.
Not so for the corporate distribution: Small companies took the brunt of the payroll reduction.

IMPRESSIVE CONSUMER RESILIENCE.
Quarterly numbers from American Eagle, Dollar Tree, and Macy’s point to better-than-expected sales ... aligning with strong Black Friday indicators and challenging the narrative that prices, debt, and income insecurity would hit spending—at least for now.
#economy