@kyla.bsky.social
wrote a book called "in this economy?" | chair of the federal reserve | writing and youtube @ http://kyla.substack.com
HOW BETTING BECAME POLITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
In today's New York Times piece, I wrote about how prediction markets validate political events before Congress can respond, and how those market outcomes can end up deciding what's legitimate.
Audio version open.spotify.com/episode/2mGf...
22.01.2026 14:52 β π 33 π 6 π¬ 1 π 1
New piece attempting to synthesize the past few weeks: media logic, market structure, geopolitical trust, and lessons from history. The bond market, the Fed, Japan, AI hype vs. energy reality, and what happens when the infrastructure that made the show possible starts changing channels.
21.01.2026 17:02 β π 53 π 12 π¬ 3 π 3
Transcript: kyla.substack.com/p/san-franci...
09.01.2026 14:57 β π 21 π 2 π¬ 2 π 0
NEW INTERVIEW
I sat down with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin to talk about what really matters in 2026. Are we headed for the 1970s or the 1990s? Why does the economy keep not breaking? And why should we count cranes?
WHY YOUNG PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON EVERYTHING
In todayβs Wall Street Journal, I wrote about how an economy with fewer stable paths is pushing young people toward low probability, high payoff bets in search of upside - even though this is not what people actually want.
In today's newsletter, I wrote about why everyone is gambling and why no one is happy
11.12.2025 17:32 β π 78 π 11 π¬ 5 π 1
I wrote about the burning Waymos and gentle singularity and ragebait and how everything is coalescing into a giant contradiction kyla.substack.com/p/everything...
11.06.2025 16:08 β π 104 π 12 π¬ 18 π 2If anyone cares about the flight update, it got cancelled so I decided that I'd rent a car and just fly out of Nashville but turns out all the rental cars companies were out of cars (Even if you Reserved) so I have rebooked myself to fly out of this airport haha
11.06.2025 16:08 β π 32 π 0 π¬ 3 π 0But one could argue that the systems that profit by drowning us in information and platforms that make money by making everyone confused and angry are even scarier. The panopticon perhaps is less frightening than the slot machine.
11.06.2025 16:08 β π 50 π 3 π¬ 3 π 0Most dystopian narratives focused on authoritarian control like Big Brother watching, governments suppressing information, which we are increasingly experiencing.
11.06.2025 16:08 β π 9 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
I wrote about the burning Waymos and gentle singularity and ragebait and how everything is coalescing into a giant contradiction kyla.substack.com/p/everything...
11.06.2025 16:08 β π 104 π 12 π¬ 18 π 2
In dialogue with Jon Cohen, the author of Losing Big, about sports betting in the United States of America. We talk about the past, the present, and the future, and how we increasingly are turning psychological vulnerabilities into financial infrastructure. Enjoy!
kyla.substack.com/p/gamblemeri...
From rubbery crypto steaks to disappearing universities in Rust Belt towns, from robots named Ruby that know where theyβre going (Mar Vista, to deliver exactly one KitKat) to humans idling in parking lots - we are all living inside a phase transition right now. But what happens next?
29.05.2025 15:14 β π 40 π 1 π¬ 4 π 0
We are living through massive technological change and are actively dismantling the very systems that are supposed to help us adapt.
kyla.substack.com/p/the-four-p...
Rejection, convenience, and predictability are all core parts of the economy - think college kids trying to get jobs right now, Klarna and DoorDash and the defaulting NACHOs, and the downfall of Cartoon Network. What would CS Lewis think about where we are now? kyla.substack.com/p/economic-l...
21.05.2025 14:30 β π 56 π 6 π¬ 5 π 2
Sticker drop! All stickers designed by me! Put them everywhere. On your dog. On your friend. On your friend's dog. Enjoy! Proceeds support independent economics education (aka my next big project π). Link in next post!
27.04.2025 15:03 β π 72 π 6 π¬ 2 π 0
The American economy isnβt built to think - itβs built to comply. Risk aversion is reshaping our politics, our education system, and our global standing. Weβre raising a generation thatβs optimized for survival, not innovation - and itβs costing us everything. kyla.substack.com/p/compliance...
16.04.2025 14:38 β π 187 π 45 π¬ 7 π 8
In NYT Opinion discussing (1) the viability of Trumponomics and (2) the increased warring among the MAGA populist, Wall Street conservative and tech futurist factions. We need an industrial revival in the US. But this isn't the way.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/o...
I also talk about what policies would work better according to history and how you can think about your portfolios.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 17 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0Ray Dalio has said that this is the 'Overall Big Cycle' and that this all had to happen - which maybe, but torpedoing the world into an economic downturn and kneecapping industry probably isnβt the best solution to fix it.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 27 π 2 π¬ 2 π 0This isn't just Wall Street. Small businesses will get hammered by this. And - it won't bring that many jobs back, because automation is key. What we do bring back will be exorbitantly expensive, and we can't make things like coffee or bananas here.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 10 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0And the goal of all this is to apparently bring manufacturing back, right? Well, manufacturers are already hurting. Microsoft has already cancelled $1b in data centers in Ohio and Haas Automation is pulling back in CA.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 12 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0It is certainly threatening the world order, and China is perhaps completely ready to fight both a trade and capital war.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 7 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0So maybe will Congress step in? (remember, all of this is under the guise of emergency power) or maybe we see state level negotiations with manufacturers? Someone will have to do something.
09.04.2025 18:25 β π 6 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
