Oliver Meier

Trump kündigt Atomwaffentests an: Experte: „Rückschritt in den Kalten Krieg und einfach dumm“ Wie ernst ist die Ankündigung von US-Präsident Donald Trump zu nehmen, nach 33 Jahren Pause wieder Atomwaffentests durchzuführen? Der Experte Oliver Meier sieht vor allem eine Gefahr.

Auch wenn die Folgen der Ankündigung Trumps zur Wiederaufnahme von Nuklearwaffentests unklar bleiben, ist sie gefährlich. Mein Interview zum Thema (hinter der Paywall) hier: is.gd/7wNDih

The ELN’s 2024 impact report, “The power of diverse networks”, details the organisation’s accomplishments in reducing the risk of existential conflict and the power of our diverse network, even at moments of deep geopolitical tension.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/report/the-p...

Das neue nukleare Zeitalter Atomwaffen erleben ein gefährliches Comeback. Ohne neue Rüstungskontrolle droht der Welt ein atomares Armageddon.

Gute Übersicht von Rolf Mützenich: "Sollten Putin und Trump zu Verständigung über New START kommen, wären Deutschland und Europa gefragt, konkrete Vorschläge für den Erhalt der multilateralen Rüstungskontrolle und einer künftigen europäischen Sicherheitsordnung zu machen." is.gd/kODajt

Good critique of "A House of Dynamite" by @markwgoodman.bsky.social in @thebulletin.org:
"Damage limitation in nuclear war is fundamentally a mirage."

Trump sinks global shipping climate tax The decision to halt action for a year marks a stinging defeat for the EU and its climate change efforts.

Sign of the times: “They killed [the agreement]. The lack of leadership from the EU makes my blood boil,” said one person with knowledge of the discussions. www.politico.eu?p=7350282

The Russian New START initiative: How can Europeans respond to a poisonous offer? Putin’s proposal to extend the nuclear weapons treaty for a year has been met with silence from most European leaders so far. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that there are legitimate ...

Putin’s offer to extend New START has been met with silence from most European leaders. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that, despite concerns over Russia's sincerity, the West should not miss an opportunity to leverage Russian interests.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/t...

Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to use remote-sensing technologies to support its verification work.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief...

$151 billion missile defense program contract has drawn lots of interest, DOD solicitation shows SHIELD would include ground- and space-based systems, satellites and weapons capable of detecting and destroying missiles fired at the U.S. homeland.

You don't say. 🙄
is.gd/XdsSoU

Deutscher Bundestag - Unterausschuss Rüstungs- und Proliferationskontrolle, Nichtverbreitung...

Gute Nachrichten: @bundestag.de Unterausschuss "Rüstungs- und Proliferationskontrolle, Nichtverbreitung und internationale Abrüstung" hat sich konstitutiert. Wir bei @theeln.bsky.social freuen uns auf gute Zusammenarbeit! Selten waren Abrüstung, Rüko & Nonproliferation wichtiger.
is.gd/ENFhV3

Check out the ELN's starter pack below - one quick link to follow our staff and network members on @bsky.app ⤵️
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Incomplete Upgrades at RAF Lakenheath Raise Questions About Suspected US Nuclear Deployment - Federation of American Scientists Satellite imagery of RAF Lakenheath reveals new construction of a security perimeter around ten protective aircraft shelters in the designated nuclear area, the latest measure in a series of upgrades ...

Great update by @nukestrat.bsky.social "The news of a potential deployment of nuclear weapons to RAF Lakenheath and the UK’s purchase of F-35As for the NATO nuclear mission are the latest in a series of developments showing increased nuclear posturing in Europe over the past decade." fas.org?p=39472

Europe and the end of New START In light of Putin's recent offer of a voluntary, time-limited extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) obligations to the US, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier writ...

Putin’s offer to extend New START opens a rare window for dialogue. ELN Policy and Research Director @olivermeier.bsky.social argues that US allies in Europe should seize this rare opportunity for arms control and help shape Washington’s response.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/e...

In New York for the UNGA First Committee on Disarmament & International Security? Make sure to check out ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer's and ELN Senior Network member @akmentt.bsky.social's side event ⤵️
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Must-read @passblue.bsky.social piece: "Commitments to gender equality aren’t just falling by the wayside — they are being bulldozed to the ground. ... The decrease in financial support is also being undermined by a US-led normative and moral attack on international frameworks like the WPS agenda."

Must-read by my @theeln.bsky.social colleague Julia Berghofer on why regular and independent #failsafe reviews by #nuclearweapons possessors of their nuclear arsenals are a key indicator of responsible stewardship 👇‼️

Must-read by Annemiek Dols on how "Russia’s use of banned chemicals undermines associated norms of non-use and may pave the way for the use of more lethal chemicals" - absent a meaningful international response to violations of #ChemicalWeaponsConvention #CWC: is.gd/AB1Osb

This piece in National Interest about UK decision to buy nuclear F-35As wrongly claims B61-12 nuke will "sacrifice" aircraft stealth because bomb can't fit in the bomb bay. nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/th...

No so. As this picture shows, the F-35A can carry two bombs internally.

2/2 Caveat: "Measure will only be viable if US acts in a similar manner and does not take steps that undermine or violate existing balance of deterrence capabilities." Which presumably could mean a lot of things, including Golden Dome, etc. Trump should reciprocate and allies should welcome move.

Putin offers Trump a temporary nuclear arms control deal that would extend status quo by one year Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that he was ready to extend by one year the last arms control treaty between Washington and Moscow that limits the number of nuclear weapons each side has if U.S. President Donald Trump does the same.

1/ For once, not only bad news out of the Kremlin: ""Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the central numerical limits under the New START Treaty for one year after 5 February 2026." is.gd/0rAcRF

And a bit of nuclear chest-thumping here: "Volkel air base also hosts the U.S. Air Force 703rd Munitions Support Squadron", which provides security for nuclear weapons. is.gd/VS32sE

After the New START treaty : DeepCuts The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.

Concise, solid and constructive @deepcutsproject.bsky.social fact sheet laying out key challenges for finding a follow-on agreement and describing policy options to avoid an unconstrained nuclear arms build-up "After the New START treaty" expires February 2026. Take a look 👇‼️
is.gd/U3iPxH

Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ...

Russia’s exercise Zapad is not only combat prep but also an instrument of strategic communication. The challenge is reading it right. ELN Senior Policy Fellow @alxgraef.bsky.social writes that confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) may help.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...

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Check out the ELN's latest Iran briefing ⤵️
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Chief of the Air Staff speech at DSEI 2025 Chief of the Air Staff speech at DSEI 2025 - ‘Putting more AIR in Air: Agile, Integrated, Ready’

US B61 to be delivered by UK F35 are "something between hydrogen bomb and frontier policeman"? Well, B61 *are* hydrogen bombs to start with. Also, there are plenty of other, smarter "response options" than weapons of mass destruction. There is no "void" on the "escalation ladder". is.gd/gT8HUx

Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

On 9/11, StratCom leaders were practicing for a fictional threat when real, unprecedented catastrophe struck Nothing had prepared them to respond to multiple commercial airliners inside the United States that had suddenly been transformed into guided missiles, filled with human beings.

On September 11, 2001, US Strategic Command was—by sheer coincidence—one week into its annual Global Guardian nuclear command and control exercise. Strategic bombers had been armed with some 36 nuclear weapons, ICBMs and several SSBNs were on alert, and three E-4B airborne command posts were aloft.

A copy of an article in the September 11, 1996, edition of the New York Times headlined, “U.N. Endorses a Treaty to Halt All Nuclear Testing.” A box in the article contains a chronology of nuclear testing since 1945 and a table of known nuclear tests worldwide to that date.

Today in 1996, the United Nations General Assembly approved the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty on a vote of 158-3. Bhutan, India, and Libya all voted no. All five declared nuclear-weapon states (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China) pledged to sign the treaty.

UN inspectors can resume work at Iran nuclear sites after breakthrough deal Rafael Grossi, IAEA director general, says agreement with Tehran is ‘important step in the right direction’

Potentially important step to averting #snapback: @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Grossi said agreement gave access to “all facilities and installations in Iran, and contemplates required reporting on all attacked facilities, incl. the nuclear material”, referencing 440kg stockpile of 60% HEU. is.gd/4Xq76m

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7