Phillies Forecaster

As last remaining difference maker free agent signs (I.e., Framber Valdez), the World Series odds don’t change much.

🚨 During the past few seasons, I built a model to project total Phillies wins and playoff chances.

I created this account to share my projections and plan to publish updates periodically.

I plan to release my projections on March 22, 2026.

First update since 12/2, and the Phillies odds have gone from 9.1% to 5.9%.

Still in the top 5, but pretty remarkable the drop.

FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (2/1 update):

Dodgers - 31.3%
Yankees - 9.5%
Mets - 7.1%
Braves - 6.7%
Blue Jays - 6.7%
Mariners - 5.9%
Phillies - 5.9%(📉)
Red Sox - 5.9%
Astros - 4.7%
Cubs- 4.7%

- Finally, it appears they have done enough to sustain success for another year. IMO, the big impact of missing out on Bo is that they missed out on a key asset that could prolong their window. But, the FO at the very least has shown they’re still willing to throw money at making the team better.

- Another point made by @phillies-therapy.com and @mattgelb.bsky.social on their recent pod, is that there is significant lack of depth to the rotation and OF, which means any prolonged injury would be bad. I still kinda believe they’ll try and fix this with money considering the risk it poses.

- To me, the big surprise of the offseason was the signing of Keller and the moves to add new arms to the lower end of the bullpen. As @mattgelb.bsky.social said in the recent Phillies Therapy with @phillies-therapy.com, the Bullpen is a clear strength and might be the best in the MLB.

- The JT contract was always gonna anger fans, imo. But, the team was in a position where they couldn’t really go without him. So, the 3rd year always seemed inevitable to me. I will say the 15 mil per was less than I thought it was gonna be. Was expecting 18ish.

- the WIP class has and will continue to turn against the Phillies. They thought Bo was a guarantee (some reports made it sound like it was) but the market still needed to develop and as it did, it was not to their benefit. The offseason now has the “run it back” label, which fans don’t like.

Now that we’re a few days post missing out on Bo and reports the Phillies offseason is “done,” thought I’d compile some thoughts…

Very rational take…

I think Bichette goes to Boston. It is an obvious fit and they have the money available. The Phillies aren’t a clean fit and have to make other moves to do it and I don’t know if they want to spend that much on him.

Or else they’ll talk themselves into signing Bo Bichette…

When @mattgelb.bsky.social speaks I listen and think you should too…

The idea of letting Realmuto walk, signing Bo Bichette and completing the needed roster moves to make it work is enticing.

Seeing some concern that JT being unsigned means he’s not coming back.

Two things: (1) this is likely JT’s last chance at a significant payday day. I see his desire to get the most money possible.

(2) Phillies have made it obvious they’ll match whatever market offers.

So with all the moves, plus the Phillies getting an extra year on Seth Johnson, the bullpen is pretty set.

High Leverage: Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Banks
Mid Leverage: Kerkering, Bowlan
Low Leverage: McCambley, Backhus

You aren't committed to the low leverage guys, but they have a spot.

I guess 7.5 for an aging lefty specialist who was on the downslope was reason enough to trade him.

Spending on Keller, a high-leverage arm, was definitely a surprise to the upside. Feel like they marginally improved their team. However, the rumors of moving Strahm kinda makes this move a wash, imo. Bullpen depth isn’t a bad thing.

If you accept that there isn’t a massive offensive overhaul coming, giving Brad Keller slight overpay to go all in on Starting/Bullpen pitching is pound for pound probably the most effective use of resources available to the Phillies

Phillies plan to move forward with this current outfield group, Dave Dombrowski said:

Brandon Marsh/A RHB in LF
Justin Crawford in CF
Adolis García in RF

Rational take on Adolis Garcia signing. Wouldn’t expect anything less from @mattwinkelman.bsky.social

Curet is a big arm who is an obvious bullpen conversion. McCollum has some interesting characteristics, but has been inconsistent in AA/AAA and profiled as a middle reliever.

Another interesting tidbit from @mattgelb.bsky.social -

- JT deal possibly only a 2 yr deal.

This would be a big development imo.

Safe to say that if Bader expects a 3-yr deal, he won’t be back on the Phillies.

Couple interesting tidbits from @mattgelb.bsky.social and @ken-rosenthal.bsky.social reporting:

- Strahm might be traded.

- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.

- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.

Not much movement otherwise.

FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (12/2 update):

Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)

Didn’t realize how great of a season Sanchez had until I read this post. Still amazed at how great he’s become.

Bader coming back seems to be a real possibility and I’d say the most likely.

I would add, that resigning Bader to a short term deal is a very likely possibility.

Ranger’s story is a great one. Very happy to see this guy get paid.