Adam Bonica

Hungarian polling trends 2023-2026 showing Fidesz (orange line) declining from ~55% to ~40% while TISZA party (dark red line) rises from near 0% in early 2024 to ~44% by late 2025, surpassing Fidesz. Other opposition parties (DK, MM, Jobbik, etc.) remain below 10% throughout the period.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.

Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.

Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Transcript: Anti-Corruption Politics Are The Way to Crush Trumpism Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica says trying to be more moderate is a dead end for Democrats and the solution is for the party to be seen as fighting against corruption, oligarchy and other il...

"Corruption is the Achilles' heel of authoritarians," says @adambonica.bsky.social, explaining why opposing corruption (including the legal kind) should be the center of anti-Trump/Democratic politics. So many insights here. newrepublic.com/article/2030...

Data visualization titled “Even Trump’s Own Judicial Appointees Rule Against His Administration Nearly Half the Time.” Top section shows 81 rulings against (49.1%) vs 84 for (50.9%) among Trump appointees. Middle section compares rulings by appointing party: Democratic appointees ruled against Trump 752 times vs 169 for; Republican appointees 232 against vs 126 for. Bottom section shows historical comparison - how other presidents’ appointees ruled on Trump cases: Biden appointees 252 against/46 for, Obama 368/91, Bush 62/23, Clinton 125/22, Reagan 88/19. Source: Federal Court Dockets from Courtlistener.com. Data from Jan 21, 2025 through Nov 11, 2025, lower federal courts only, Supreme Court not included.

As Trump again ramps up attacks on judges as biased, consider: his own appointees rule against his admin 49% of the time. Republican appointees 65%. Reporters should ask: If the judiciary is biased, why do the judges he picked keep ruling against him?

The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.

Piece from me and @adambonica.bsky.social in @thenewrepublic.bsky.social today about Gen Z

They have bad taste in music but quite progressive political attitudes (even the men)

newrepublic.com/article/2030...

9/🧵 What does this mean for Democratic strategy? All those debates about choosing between identity politics and economic populism? False premise. Young working-class voters with low racial resentment aren't choosing. They're ready for Medicare for All AND Black Lives Matter. Lean into the tide.

8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.

7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.

A horizontal bar chart titled “Generational Turnout: From 2020 to 2024 Rates” shows turnout rate changes among registered voters by generation and party affiliation. The chart includes four generational groups—Gen Z, Millennial, Gen X, and Boomer—and tracks changes from 2020 (dot) to 2024 (arrow tip), with Democratic turnout in blue and Republican turnout in red. Key trends: • Gen Z: Democratic turnout dropped by 13.7 percentage points (pp); Republican turnout dropped by 7.9pp. • Millennials: Democratic turnout fell by 5.6pp; Republican turnout fell by 0.3pp. • Gen X: Democratic turnout dropped 4.2pp; Republican turnout dropped 0.8pp. • Boomers: Democratic turnout declined 3.2pp; Republican turnout declined 1.4pp. A note below the chart explains that all groups saw turnout declines, but Democratic voters dropped off more steeply. A boxed summary highlights the consistent pattern: Republicans started from higher turnout and maintained more of their base, while Democrats experienced longer arrows (larger drop-offs) across all generations.

6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.

Racial Resentment Among White Americans by Age and Party A single line chart showing racial resentment scores for White Americans by birth year (1940–2000) split by party identification: Republican (orange), Independent (yellow), and Democrat (blue). Y-axis shows resentment levels; X-axis shows birth year and approximate ages. Republicans have the highest resentment across all cohorts, with scores increasing sharply among older generations and stabilizing at high levels. Independents occupy the middle, with a steady rise from younger to older cohorts. Democrats remain lowest, rising gradually among older birth years but maintaining a wide gap from Republicans and Independents. Shaded confidence bands widen for older cohorts.

5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.

Racial Resentment Among Hispanic and Asian Americans by Birth Year and Demographics This figure contains four line charts showing racial resentment scores (standardized 2-item scale) across birth years from 1940 to 2000 among Hispanic and Asian Americans, with separate trendlines for demographic subgroups. Y-axis ranges from low to high resentment; X-axis shows birth year with approximate ages. Education panel: Two lines show that non-college individuals consistently report higher racial resentment than college-educated individuals. Both groups trend upward from younger to older cohorts, with the gap largest among older generations. Gender panel: Male and female lines rise gradually with older cohorts. Males show slightly higher resentment than females across most cohorts, though the gap narrows among older groups. Geography panel: Four regional lines (South, West, Midwest, Northeast) show modest differences. The South and Midwest trend slightly higher than the West and Northeast, and all regions show increasing resentment among older cohorts. Religion panel: Protestants display the highest resentment levels, followed by Catholics. Non-affiliated respondents have the lowest and flattest trend, with little increase across cohorts. Protestants show the steepest age-related rise. At the bottom, the source notes this is from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study (CES) using GAM-smoothed trendlines.

4/🧵 The generational shift isn't just among white Americans. Young Asian and Hispanic Americans show the same pattern: dramatic declines in racial resentment across education, gender, geography, and religion. This is a broad, multi-racial generational transformation.

3/🧵 This generational trend is consistent across every demographic subgroup you can imagine. Non-college Gen Z men? Lower racial resentment than college-educated elder Millennials. The pattern holds across gender, geography, and religion. Young men and women are moving in tandem.

The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.

2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.

Racial Resentment Among White Americans by Birth Year and Demographics This figure presents the same four-panel layout (education, gender, geography, religion) but for White Americans from birth years 1940 to 2000. Education panel: A pronounced divide shows non-college Whites with substantially higher resentment across all cohorts, increasing sharply for older birth years. College-educated Whites rise more modestly but remain distinctly lower, especially among younger cohorts. Gender panel: Male and female trendlines rise together, with women slightly higher in mid-century cohorts. Younger cohorts of both genders start lower and climb with age. Geography panel: Regional lines separate clearly: the South is highest in resentment, followed by the Midwest. The West and Northeast show lower levels, with the Northeast consistently at the bottom. All regions slope upward toward older cohorts. Religion panel: Protestants show the highest resentment, peaking among mid-century cohorts. Catholics sit in the middle. Non-affiliated Whites show the lowest resentment, especially among younger respondents, with a small rise among mid-century generations. The figure notes CES 2024 data with GAM-smoothed trendlines.

Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵

Firm Tied to Kristi Noem Secretly Got Money From $220 Million DHS Ad Contracts The company is run by the husband of Noem’s chief DHS spokesperson and has personal and business ties to Noem and her aides. DHS invoked the “emergency” at the border to skirt competitive bidding rule...

The graft oozing out of every corner of this administration is incredible. According to @propublica.org, a $220 million DHS ad campaign awarded without competitive bidding went to consultants tightly connected to Kristi Noem.

Reading through these emails, I’m reminded of the saying: “You can’t con an honest man.” Epstein may not have understood grammar, but he sure understood that.

I’ve read a lot of takes on the shutdown cave, but this one is really important

Everyone Is Wrong The Way To Win Is Strength, Not Moderation. The 2025 Winners Proved It.

JUST POSTED: Everyone Is Wrong, our response to the recent series of arguments that – based on the hypothesis that Harris lost and Dems underperformed in 2024 due to (summarizing broadly) voters’ perceptions that Dems are too far left – Democrats need to move right to win.

We’ve built two justice systems in the US—one that bends over backward to shield the wealthy and powerful, and another that comes down hard and fast on the poor and marginalized. Trump and Epstein show that it’s easier to squeeze a rich man through the eye of a needle than to see one sent to prison.

The Epstein story gets a something that is tearing at the heart of the electorate: elite impunity. The idea that wealthy and powerful people can do terrible things *at scale* and face no consequences for them. Whatever political party actually stops it could rule the country for a generation.

"The authoritarian doesn’t need to win arguments or offer genuine compromise. They need only inflict enough pain that resistance becomes morally unbearable... It’s a nasty tactic but an effective one. Create unbearable suffering...Then offer relief in exchange for political surrender."

Said Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) used his massive wealth to buy Paramount, turn CBS from a news org into right-wing propaganda, and get a big stake in TikTok USA. Plus bid for Warner Brothers - Discovery, which owns a lot of media properties (eg CNN), presumably to make it propaganda too.

"The Democratic base understands what’s at stake. Grassroots activists, organizers, and voters have shown they’re willing to fight. ... Until Democratic leaders can be made to fear cowardice more than they fear Republicans, the pattern will continue."

Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇

Best assessment I have seen yet.

Table showing the five richest men in the U.S from Bloombergs billionaire list ., all in technology. Elon Musk tops the list with a net worth of $461B and a year-to-date gain of $28.2B. Larry Ellison is second at $300B with a $107B YTD gain. Jeff Bezos has $268B (+$29.5B YTD), Larry Page $250B (+$81.9B YTD), and Sergey Brin $234B (+$75.5B YTD). Each row also lists last-day change, country (all United States), and industry (all Technology).

Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.

The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn't.

What’s the difference between compromise and capitulation? Compromise trades concessions. Capitulation pays ransom to stop deliberate suffering, and teaches your opponent that coercion works. There are effective responses to coercive bargaining. What we saw was not one of them.

The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn't.

"It’s a nasty tactic but an effective one. Create unbearable suffering. Wait for your opponents’ empathy to overwhelm their resolve. Then offer relief in exchange for political surrender." - @adambonica.bsky.social
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-compas...

Screenshot of a Politico article. At the top, the Politico logo appears in red. Below it is a photo showing House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaking to reporters in a hallway, raising one finger while surrounded by microphones and journalists. The headline reads: “Jeffries backs Schumer amid fierce Democratic backlash to shutdown deal.” A timestamp says “41 mins ago.” The subheadline quotes Jeffries saying “Yes and yes,” in response to whether Schumer was effective and should keep his job.

I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.

If Moderates Overperform, How Do You Explain Sinema? The NYT editorial board is full of shit.

this seems like a relevant post re golden's resignation. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/if-moderat...

The voices of SNAP Recipients have become political pawns. They explained, in their own words, what Trump withholding funds has been like.

SNAP benefits are currently being held hostage by the Trump administration and their fate now lies with the Supreme Court.

Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:

yeah, I mean...we just saw Ds of every ideological stripe win sweeping victories in every kind of district.

it seems pretty clear that Golden's strategy of running against the Ds a la Manchin and Sinema has backfired spectacularly in an era of massive backlash to MAGA.