Reckonings within the DC policy establishment never happen but the following should be recognized:
Liberal champions of Venezuelan democracy got played and gave cover and legitimacy to amateur neo-imperialists, helping them birth a dangerous and destabilizing new order.
decades of “national security” people treating those concerned about US imperialism as wacko commies while intoning gravely about a supposed liberal/rules-based order under threat by a rotating cast of someone else.
Trump is going to declare victory and leave the Maduro-regime-without-Maduro in place, isn’t he?
The dumbest possible ending.
More than decent I'd say, especially given that 32 out of 48 teams get to the knockouts...
I agree to some extent but I have two hesitations:
1) The admin has been increasingly open about regime change being the goal.
2) The people who have pushed to get this far - Rubio, friends in FL - certainly view regime change as the goal. There will be big internal pressure to escalate.
In sum, the odds of a limited military action ousting Maduro are much lower than commonly perceived and we should be wary of dealing Trump in at a blackjack table where he will be chasing losses and tempted to double down on a bad hand. 6/
Trump will be tempted to escalate to delivery victory. A more extensive air campaign or a limited ground invasion will come onto the table as options. Arguably, proponents of action against Venezuela know this and are trying to maneuver him into this position. 5/
What if airstrikes fail to trigger a coup or trigger an attempted coup that fails? Trump will never take the L. One option might be to redefine success (ie, we destroyed the narco infrastructure) and call it a day. But this will be transparently nonsense and leave him looking very weak. 4/
The coup must be organized by mid-ranking officers who wouldn’t fear trial under the next government. Coups are risky coordination games that require communication and trust across units. The government knows this, surveils these officers intensively, and has done a lot of other coup proofing.3/
The most plausible mechanism linking air strikes to Maduro’s removal is a coup. Yet FANB’s upper echelon is deeply implicated in corruption and abuses. Even if air strikes impose costs, they have little incentive to remove Maduro without a guaranteed amnesty. 2/
Coup Dynamics and Escalation Risk in Venezuela
Air strikes offer little guarantee that Maduro will be ousted. Maduro is unpopular and illegitimate. But its not clear why this matters. Air strikes do not trigger a popularity contest. 1/
I see what you're saying, maybe that's a fairer reading.
I do think its just an indefensible level of confidence about a very complex and unpredictable scenario.
But I get why they feel the need to project that confidence. They feel like this is the opportunity and they want to shoot their shot.
I get why Team MCM/Edmundo makes this argument yet its still hugely annoying to be told that anybody who believes democracy might not magically materialize in an already failed state after US sponsored regime change via force is simply providing cover for Maduro.
www.wsj.com/opinion/what...
Broad protections for civil liberties are a definitional element of democracy but not autocracy. That's the best reason for ordinary folks.
Even if democracy is only a game for resolving elite conflicts w/o violence, ordinary people bear the brunt of that violence. That's another reason.
If he’s limping bc he’s got a rifle part down his pants it’s amateur hour but if he’s doing it to throw off gait recognition tech that’s some serious forethought.
Swarthmore is hiring in Comparative Politics with an emphasis on China! Apply by 9/15 for full consideration: apply.interfolio.com/170741
Feel free to reach out if you have questions!
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Swarthmore is hiring in Comparative Politics with an emphasis on China! Apply by 9/15: apply.interfolio.com/170741
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions.
I know its rough out there. Best wishes to all on the market.
#polisky #poliscijobs #poliscijobmarket #psjminfo #academicjobs
JOB! Please RT.
Swarthmore is hiring for our Social Science Quantitative Lab Associate to support & do teaching quant methods to undergrads. Especially looking for people familiar with sociology and/or political science, and R. Apply by 4/18.
apply.interfolio.com/165892
Happy to answer questions.
We simply had to intentionally destroy the world’s strongest economy while dismantling our scientific and educational infrastructure to ensure that a team with a trans girl would never finish second place in the Mountain West volleyball standings again
The issue with Gyokeres is that we're taking on two kinds of substantial risk. Performance risk - Will his production translate from Portugal? Will he elevate the side? Roster/Financial risk - If his first two years are poor, are we stuck with a 29-year-old on 200k per week for three more years?
this pic from the turkish protests goes insanely hard
I’m told this is a real letter. It basically says, “We’ll destroy Columbia unless you destroy it first.”
Its mainly people refusing to admit their own culpability, whether as Trump voters, as folks who spent years both sidesing him and fixating on shiny baubles like DEI, or as folks who lost their mind at the Biden administration. The truth is that WE FUCKED UP BIGLY and they played their part. End.
This phenomenon deserves its own name in which otherwise smart elites engage in all sorts of insane theorizing to rationalize what Trump is doing. DOGE is the disruptive force government needs. Trump is a savvy geopolitical strategist. Recessions are actually good. 1/
How many federal workers would DOGE need to fire to make up for Musk not paying his fair share of taxes?
Answer: 677,000. That's 44% of the entire non-DoD federal workforce.
Again, this power grab is not about the budget. It’s about politics.
How much Elon Musk makes from the government a day: $8 million.
How much a senior on Social Security gets a day: $65
Guess which budget Musk and Trump want to cut?
I'm as worried about Trump as anybody but "US is now less democratic than Russia or Ethiopia by our measures" seems like a bad take.
Yup. And its both patrimonial and - as is becoming more and more apparent- highly ideological in a very very dark way. That combination is terrifying.
You joke but G Gordon Liddy actually did this inside the Nixon White House.
And stripped from people like @markzaidesq.bsky.social at the same time.
