Bill Connelly

Fell way behind on my newsletter reading this week and finally got to this. Absolutely delightful read. Exactly what I needed this morning.

I'm very frequently wrong, but NAILED IT

Yeah, I'm guessing he's closer to the median than I would prefer.

Yeah, Kimmich's response a few days ago was essentially, "Man, I don't want to talk about stuff like this anymore."

I've never been more confident in BVB allowing a late equalizer to drop points.

Tulane didn't have to go 13-0. That's the point.

I think my opinions on how the committee treats the G6 are pretty clear at this point.

Where was I supposed to mention them? I was very cynically clear about which G6 teams are eligible.

Projecting the 2026 College Football Playoff bracket It's never too early to look ahead to next season. Some teams look like easy playoff picks, but who rounds out the field?

* SEC title still goes through Athens
* B1G title still DOESN'T go through Columbus
* Did Tech's money wreck the close-games conference??
* 🙌
* Which G6 teams have the right schedule?

I projected the 2026 CFP field. And yes, Hawaii and Oklahoma State are in. Obviously. www.espn.com/college-foot...

Seriously, though, I'm going to connect on one of these Hail Mary bombs at some point, and you're never going to hear the end of it.

Projecting the 2026 College Football Playoff bracket It's never too early to look ahead to next season. Some teams look like easy playoff picks, but who rounds out the field?

* SEC title still goes through Athens
* B1G title still DOESN'T go through Columbus
* Did Tech's money wreck the close-games conference??
* 🙌
* Which G6 teams have the right schedule?

I projected the 2026 CFP field. And yes, Hawaii and Oklahoma State are in. Obviously. www.espn.com/college-foot...

AND she's somehow still openly a Bills fan! References them unprompted!

Honestly they should just field a 1-1-9 formation and see what happens. Can’t get the manager fired If you don’t have one!

Sounds like a message he maybe needed to hear!

Except for the part where they completely backed up their rating for the last 7 games of the season.

Correction: Your alma mater is in the top 750. Sounds way better.

No limits. That would be way less fun.

You’d watch it!

Just trying to give them offseason bulletin board material!

Obligatory:

This list includes the new level-to-level adjustments I hinted at during the season. FBS-to-FCS has gone from 28 to 33 points, which makes some of these comparisons less fun.

D3/NAIA also appear to have drawn a little closer to FCS/D2. Guess that makes sense considering portal impact.

THE FINAL 2025 SP+ COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 766:

Indiana -154.5 Maine Maritime
Ohio St -152 Oberlin
NDSU -9 Purdue
Lehigh -4 Oklahoma St
Ferris State -13 UMass

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

We can't thank everyone enough for using the site and to those who newly discovered us this season. So many new features and fixes coming for the 2026. College football is the best. Major shoutout to @sickoscommittee.org for essentially being our loudspeaker as we grow.

- Akshay, Saiem, and Jack

I very much agree.

Submitting it Friday. Thinking it'll run Monday. You'll be both happy and unhappy with the Duke games I included.

Btw, for as unpredictable as we say things seem now, SP+ cruuuuuussssshhhhhed it in 2025. Average error went down from 12.6 PPG to 12.2, and median error went down from 10.5 to 10.1. The lines are infinitely better than they used to be, but it improved ATS, too.

It's your rating vs. everyone else's that season.

Percentiles?

Ranking all 64 teams in College Football Playoff history Where do the 16-0 Hoosiers and the rest of this season's CFP participants slot in?

And because I haven't annoyed people enough today ... I re-visited my Ranking All 64 CFP Teams To Date list! Ranking Miami (started low, rose a long long way) was damn near impossible.

www.espn.com/college-foot...

10 worst teams of the 2000s, per SP+ percentiles (my deepest apologies):

2020 UMass (0.1%)
**2025 UMass (0.3%)**
2019 UMass (0.3%)
2021 UMass (0.4%)
2020 BGSU (0.4%)
2006 Temple (0.4%)
2024 Kent State (0.4%)
2022 UMass (0.5%)
2008 North Texas (0.6%)
2005 Temple (0.7%)

bsky.app/profile/crac...