Peter Fane

It is now urgent as well as essential that UK rejoins CSDP, European common security & defence, with interoperability, to reduce reliance on US technology and consent.
UK will be eligible once it rejoins EEA, essential for trade.

The real benefits of a closer trade relationship with Europe are limited by Starmer’s red lines. Without the reciprocal free movement he once pledged to defend (but now rules out) there’ll be no frictionless trade with the single market, worth over 3% on med-term GDP.

Lib Dems claim deeper trade deal with EU would raise £25bn of tax revenue Deal that stops short of joining customs union or single market could pay for reversing benefit cuts, party says

There is little scope for more than a short term fix on trade within Starmer’s red lines. The opportunities for a meaningul reset on trade have been missed.
Regulatory alignment is just half way to the single market, the restrictions without the crucial benefits:
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Is fictional expert 'Ron Vara' behind Trump's tariff plans? Peter Navarro, who is the White House’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, has frequently quoted someone named ‘Ron Vara’ in his books and op-eds. ‘Vara’ even published a pro-tariff memo du...

It may be that Trump doesn’t realise that Ron Vara is no more real than his hero Hannibal Lector. He’s a literary creation of his adviser Peter Navarro - who Musk calls a ‘moron’.

www.firstpost.com/explainers/i...

Yes, over 70% of those who voted Labour at GE want Starmer to drop his red lines to secure the crucial economic benefits of rejoining the single market.
And that was before Trump. It’s urgent now, can be done < 2 yrs from outside EU.

Whatever Trump’s real motives for tariffs, they’re raising him €2bn per day outside the control of Congress.
Starmer should reciprocate, setting matching tariffs on all US goods imports. 10% on £58bn pa to start with could be hypothecated to NHS and social care.

To rejoin EU we have to start by electing a govt committed to apply. At some point EU MSs will likely insist on a referendum, unless there’s a clear majority in next GE (34% of vote won’t be enough, they won’t want UK changing its mind half way through the Art 49 process).
UK can rejoin EEA now.

And UK needs to be part of this discussion, committed to common security and interoperability in Europe. That will happen through CSDP, UK needs to rejoin it as 🇳🇴 has done.

While I see all your conspiracy theories I regret to inform you that the horrible truth is that an old man with a tariff obsession has been given almost unlimited power in the world's richest country.

Starmer is right, it might be possible to sign a trade deal with US, as Canada & Mexico did with Trump in 2019. Benefits are dubious, temporary at best. But FWIW a limited deal with US wouldn’t be incompatible with rejoining EEA & single market, which is where Britain’s real interests lie.

Europe, inc UK, has had 4 yrs to prepare for Trump, for it was always possible Biden would drop the ball and let him back in. Trump’s tariffs are against WTO MFN rules, but Trump disabled WTO last time, that was never going to restrain him.

Keir Starmer, "My priority — my only priority — is the people of Britain, and what makes them better off"

So why is Labour keeping the UK outside of EU Single Market?

There are trade experts who advocate Trump’s approach on tariffs and trade wars. Ron Varo, for one, who set out the strategy. Trump may not actually have read it, for he doesn’t read, but somebody told him about it.

Why due process is important.

Starmer needs to decide whether he really wants a closer trade and security relationship with Europe or not. It was essential even before Trump’s trade war and impending revocation of NATO Art 5, it’s vital and urgent now.
Going forward, UK must rejoin EEA & then CSDP.

Rejoining EU is not a feasible option for now - not least it’s not up to us in UK.
Forming a separate customs union, 🇹🇷-style, would have to be negotiated from scratch, min 5 yrs.
Rejoining the single market via EEA is feasible now, removes most of NTBs throttling trade for SMEs. Can be done <2 yrs.

Brexit - ie. leaving the EU - was always a huge mistake, as most voters now realise. But the economic damage could have been largely avoided by remaining in single market on leaving EU, as Barnier offered. Fortunately that option is still on offer via EEA - which nobody voted to leave. The 🇳🇴 option.

Europe is ready to negotiate with the US.

We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods.

Because we're always ready for a good deal.

But we’re also prepared to respond with countermeasures.

And protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion ⭣

Join our Europe Day 2025 rally in Cambridge!

We'll gather outside Cambridge Guildhall, CB2 3QJ, at 3 PM on Saturday 10th May to call on our political leaders to unite in defence of democracy and freedom in Europe.

www.facebook.com/share/1FsaJJ...

#EuropeDay2025 #UniteEurope #StandWithUkraine

EU offered ‘zero-for-zero’ deal to US weeks before tariff announcement Cars and other goods were to be included, according to EU trade commissioner, who says offer is still on table

It's wise of the EU to offer Trump a ladder to climb down, if he is looking for one.

Trump's tariffs are damaging the US, so keeping the EU response targeted to minimise the cost to member states is smart.

Trump already has enough rope to hang himself.

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

What's with Trump and lying about $350 billion?

First he said the US gave Ukraine $350 billion (it didn't), now he claims US has a trade deficit of $350 billion with the EU.

The actual deficit is about $50 billion after goods and services are counted.

How can anyone negotiate with this?

Trump doesn’t read so he is easily deluded, www.yahoo.com/news/rachel-...
nor does he understand or care about history and the predictable effect of tariffs on US as well as world economy. He doesn’t understand that trade deals depend on mutual benefit. benefit

Heaven help us

Footage reveals no military personnel in Kryvyi Rih restaurant targeted by Russian attack "They hit a peaceful residential area. They hit children and civilians with ballistics with cluster bombs," Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of Kryvyi Rih's military administration, said on April 7.

⚡️Footage reveals no military personnel in Kryvyi Rih restaurant targeted by Russian attack.

Security footage shows no military personnel were present at a Krivyi Rih restaurant, despite Russian claims of military targets amid a Russian attack on the city on April 4, France 24 reported on April 7.

Once tariffs become reciprocal and variable at will, they reach a level which renders trade unviable. US is effectively cutting itself off from the world trading system.
There’s no excuse for failing to detect warning signs, RoW has been slow to adjust, but adjustment still possible at lower level.

To suggest that Trump’s tariffs and escalating trade war “have not changed the calculation” is economic illiteracy. But answer is not to spend years negotiating a new customs union, even if EU were interested in that, but to rejoin European single market, which can be done < 2 yrs from outside EU.

Talk of “re-joining the customs union” is mere distraction from urgent need to rejoin the European single market.
UK could in theory form a separate CU with EU, like 🇹🇷, but it would have to be negotiated from scratch, taking min 5 yrs if EU were interested, with few additional benefits to the TCA.

Too late now. Trump has total control.

It’s now urgent that UK rejoins European economic area (EEA) and single market for trade; also CSDP - common European security & defence policy for interoperability in armament.
Both were essential before Trump, vital now, can be done from outside EU < 2 yrs.

Mark Carney: “I have seen this movie before. I know exactly what’s going to happen.”