Project Syndicate

Ukraine Loses Again Nina L. Khrushcheva shows how Donald Trump’s self-dealing, combined with a corruption scandal, will harm ordinary Ukrainians.

While Donald Trump's administration is working with Ukrainian officials to “refine” its 28-point peace plan, Ukraine's negotiating leverage is limited, notes Nina L. Khrushcheva – especially in light of recent corruption revelations. bit.ly/4pDE6C1

Can Modi Turn India into a Developed Economy by 2047? Anne O. Krueger examines the country’s prospects for sustained growth and the vulnerabilities that could prevent it.

While China’s economy slows, India is poised to become the world’s fastest-growing emerging economy. To sustain that pace, it must improve public services and reaffirm its commitment to secular democracy, writes Anne O. Krueger. bit.ly/3Xn4GTM

If Ukraine is pressured to accept terms that amount to defeat, the rest of the world will conclude that deterring a future invasion by Russia, China, or any other nuclear power requires building nuclear weapons, observes @timothysnyder.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oWqSA5

Why the New Canadian-Swedish Partnership Matters Carla Norrlöf sees sound geopolitical reasons for the two Arctic middle powers to deepen their military-industrial ties.

For Sweden, a new strategic partnership with Canada is a power play: a way to consolidate its new role as a NATO ally, notes Carla Norrlöf. bit.ly/4ppQ81A

How Africa Can Meet Its Green Industrialization Imperative Ellen Davies, Chema Triki and Nimrod Zalk urge governments to take advantage of the policy space created by the unraveling of the multilateral order.

There is an upside to geopolitical fragmentation, according to Ellen Davies, Chema Triki, and @nimrodzalk.bsky.social: the rules and systems that have constrained Africa’s development and industrial policies are being eroded. bit.ly/4io3x8j

Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Strategy Nicola Beer explains how the European Union can build resilience without abandoning its commitment to fair play.

With the US government taking direct stakes in rare-earth and critical-metal companies, Europe cannot remain a bystander. But nor can it emulate the American approach, notes @eib.org's Nicola Beer. bit.ly/4rCCH0r

A New Opening for a Fossil-Fuel Phaseout? Adriana Abdenur lauds Brazil for confronting long-ignored tradeoffs and aligning climate ambition with practical governance.

At COP30 in Brazil, major fossil-fuel producers have finally been forced to acknowledge that phasing down oil, gas, and coal in a fair and orderly way is essential to meaningful climate progress, writes Adriana Abdenur. bit.ly/3M1HbgA

Stablecoins Are Inevitable Lucrezia Reichlin applies the lessons of past financial innovations to predict where regulation is headed.

For traditional banks, the risk of runs is mitigated by the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort function, points out Lucrezia Reichlin. If stablecoins become systemically important, central banks may have to extend comparable protections. bit.ly/483NSHy

Investors remain exuberant about AI, betting that the opportunities will outweigh the risks. In a new PS Big Picture, @carlbfrey.bsky.social, Ricardo Hausmann, Noreena Hertz, Michael Spence, and others consider the extent to which that’s true. bit.ly/4rdIKbe

The Wrong Way to Peace in Ukraine Timothy Snyder thinks the proposed settlement negotiated by Russia and the US would make the world far more dangerous.

Besides the basic injustice of allowing an aggressor to decide the outcome of the war it started, there are six fundamental problems with Donald Trump’s Russia-Ukraine “peace” plan, argues @timothysnyder.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oWqSA5

How MAGA Hopes to Pervert Transatlanticism Joschka Fischer worries that the Trump administration will try to bring down Europe’s post-nationalist project.

Now that MAGA holds power in the US, its chief ideologues see opportunities to expand the movement by exerting pressure on the “decadent” Europeans, Joschka Fischer warns. bit.ly/3K7y11y

Why Ukraine Deserves to Survive Anna Husarska argues that an ongoing investigation of high-level corruption shows what the country is – and what Russia isn't.

It might seem that a corruption investigation focused on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inner circle could not come at a worse time for the country. But this may turn out to be just the scandal Ukraine needs, observes Anna Husarska. bit.ly/4oS4SXc

How Democracies Learn to Goose-Step Kaushik Basu highlights the subtle ways social pressures cause people to accept constraints they once rejected.

Democratic collapse does not require a sudden shock. An electoral democracy can slowly drift toward dictatorship until it reaches the point of no return, writes Kaushik Basu. bit.ly/4p5Arx0

How to Respond to Chinese Imports Dani Rodrik explains what governments should be doing to address the risks to national security, innovation, and jobs.

The way to counter Chinese imports in technologically sophisticated areas is not to impose tariffs. It is to deploy modern industrial policies, @drodrik.bsky.social explains. bit.ly/485ckHf

The Right Way to Rebuild Gaza’s Health System Turnwait Michael & Erin McCandless think emergency assistance should be designed and implemented in ways that strengthen local institutions.

The real measure of Gaza’s recovery is how effectively short-term relief builds enduring national institutions that allow Palestinians to regain dignity and disengage from militias, argue Turnwait Michael and Erin McCandless. bit.ly/4rbNSNh

Will the AI boom continue? In a new PS Big Picture, Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael Spence, Lee Jong-Wha, Angela Huyue Zhang, and others examine the factors likely to shape the technology’s future. Read it at the link. bit.ly/4rdIKbe

The G20 must maintain the momentum of South Africa’s presidency and push for reforms to international finance and cooperation that will help Africa integrate into the global economy, writes Hippolyte Fofack. bit.ly/4a1BPMg

The Case for Taxing AI Kevin O’Neil sees an urgent need for policy changes to ensure that the technology serves the public good.

Even if claims that “AI is the new electricity” prove to be exaggerated, we should still prepare for deep, disruptive economic change, @rockefellerfdn.bsky.social's Kevin O'Neil writes. bit.ly/4pj4KzN

Only Liberal Nationalism Can Defeat the Far Right Filip Milačić urges pro-democracy groups to reconnect with culturally anxious voters courted by populist politicians.

Progressives have often treated concerns over immigration and cultural change as technocratic policy issues, failing to see how closely they were tied to people’s national identity. The result has been a far-right resurgence, writes Filip Milačić. bit.ly/487zHQC

How Progressives Can Win on Immigration Mark Leonard sees promise in Danish and Swedish efforts to incorporate migration control into a social-democratic agenda.

The UK's Labour government seems to have determined, correctly, that voters will not care about any of its other policies unless it can show that it is serious about securing the borders. Mark Leonard explains what that should look like. bit.ly/48e4CLg

Let a Thousand AI Regimes Bloom Angela Huyue Zhang highlights the benefits of the American federalist approach to regulating new technologies.

Many assume that America is “deregulating” AI. But it is important to remember that the US federal government is not the only regulator in town, notes Angela Huyue Zhang. bit.ly/47PMjNt

Regional Leadership on Global Tipping Points Jessica Seddon & Manjana Milkoreit propose an institutional framework for mounting a coordinated response to these massive climate risks.

Regional bodies are best positioned to steer tipping-point governance because they are close enough to see the harm caused and large enough to mount a cross-border response, write Jessica Seddon and Manjana Milkoreit. bit.ly/44ci54N

Why the US Economy Has Remained Stronger Than Expected Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg considers why aggregate figures have defied most economists’ predictions since the beginning of 2025.

Despite erratic and misguided policymaking since the beginning of 2025, Pinelopi Goldberg would not write off the US economy, given the country's track record in developing and commercializing new technologies. bit.ly/48l51wl

Restoring Europe’s Social Contracts Ana Palacio warns that the erosion of freedom, prosperity, and the rule of law is jeopardizing the European project.

The erosion of freedom, prosperity, and the rule of law poses a threat to the European project and to democracy itself, warns Ana Palacio. bit.ly/4a0SUpA

Here is my op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the occasion of the Latin America & Caribbean and European leaders’ summit.

We are strengthening our strategic alliance, rooted in democracy and mutual respect, to the benefit of people on both sides of the Atlantic.

#BuildingBridges

👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

Sri Lanka’s Interest-Rate Trap Arjun Jayadev, Ahilan Kadirgamar and J.W. Mason urge the central bank to ease monetary policy as soon as possible, while keeping an eye on capital flight.

High interest rates and rising foreign reserves signal Sri Lanka’s willingness to place the interests of outside actors ahead of the country’s own people and businesses, argue Arjun Jayadev, Ahilan Kadirgamar, and @jwmason.bsky.social. bit.ly/3XIgTlX

The Illiberal World Order Is Here Carl Bildt thinks the Trump administration has put the final nail in the coffin of the postwar world the US helped build.

The United States has ceased to be a factor in international order, becoming an engine of disorder instead, Carl Bildt observes. bit.ly/48bOhqq

The Stablecoin Threat Angus Armstrong & Dennis J. Snower see major risks associated with the growth of privately issued dollar-backed digital tokens.

The greater the total issuance of dollar-denominated stablecoins, the greater the likelihood of this politically connected industry becoming the next case of "too big to fail," Angus Armstrong and Dennis J. Snower observe. bit.ly/3LMuuWT

The G20 Can No Longer Postpone Debt Relief Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe urges members to devise a framework that would reduce Africa’s liabilities and enable its green transition.

The upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg must end with a commitment to restructuring the liabilities of highly indebted countries, most of which are in Africa, argues former Ethiopian PM Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe. bit.ly/4r7Yc8P

The AI Bubble’s Shaky Math Carl Benedikt Frey thinks the productivity gains are more muted, and the macro risks more pronounced, than in the dot-com bubble.

Like the railroads in the 19th century, the dot-com era poured money into long-lived assets that are still in use today. By contrast, AI hyperscalers are not laying track. They're running on a treadmill, @carlbfrey.bsky.social warns. bit.ly/3Ka2RGG