Ipsos in Scotland

Scotland Trends Scotland Polls and Trends: Ipsos polls on Scottish voting intention, attitudes towards parties and leaders, the issues that face Scotland and Scottish Independence.

To see polling trends for Scotland, visit: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opi...

Labour and the Conservatives have both been losing support to Reform:

· 19% of Scottish adults who voted for Labour in the 2024 General Election now say that they would vote for Reform using their constituency vote.
· Similarly, 19% of 2024 Conservative voters would now vote for Reform.

On the Holyrood list vote:

· Labour, Reform and the Greens received similar levels of support (18%, 17%, and 17% respectively), behind the SNP (on 28%).
· This is an increase of 4 percentage points for Reform since June 2025.

With elections in Holyrood approaching:

· Ipsos' constituency voting intention puts Reform on 18% (+4 since June 2025), marginally ahead of Labour (on 16%), but 17 points behind the SNP (on 35%).

Nigel Farage is in Edinburgh today to announce Reform UK’s leader in Scotland.

· Farage’s own ratings with the Scottish public (61% dissatisfied with him and 24% satisfied – a ‘net’ of -37) are better than those of Keir Starmer (-63), but worse than John Swinney (-14) or Anas Sarwar (-28).

SNP remain ahead but Reform support in Scotland rises, while Labour support slumps The SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share – a 17-point lead over Reform UK.

See our full write-up on our website here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-re...

• SNP voters are most likely to favour increased public spending, even if that means higher taxation (61% prefer statement A), followed by Labour voters (58%).

• Conservative voters are more split (41% statement A, 40% statement B).

With the Scottish Government announcing the Budget today, we revisited our latest polling on taxation and spending:

• The Scottish public show a preference for increased spending on public services, even if that means higher taxes (51% Statement A), rather than cutting taxes (26% Statement B).

NEW Holyrood voting intention

📊SNP lead with 35% of the constituency vote share
📊Reform UK’s vote share has risen to 18%, up 4 points since June
📊Scottish Labour’s share has fallen to 16%, down 7 points since June

For more Scotland polls, make sure you’re following @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social

Reform surges behind SNP as Labour support falls, poll shows Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey gives John Swinney's party a 17-point lead over Reform UK ahead of next year's Scottish Parliament election.

New @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll published by STV, finding that Reform now lead Labour on the constituency vote as immigration becomes a top 3 issue for Scottish voters for the first time.

SNP remain ahead but Reform support in Scotland rises, while Labour support slumps The SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share – a 17-point lead over Reform UK.

For full results, please see our webpage here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-re...

None of the Scottish party leaders asked about in the poll are rated positively overall:
🟡FM John Swinney is the least poorly rated (Net = -14).
🔴Anas Sarwar’s approval ratings have fallen since June (Net = -28)
🔵14% are satisfied with Russell Findlay (Net = -36)

Reform UK's messaging on immigration is resonating with a significant minority of the Scottish public. 22% trust Reform most to have the right stance on immigration - rising to 30% of men and 29% of older voters aged 55+. Compares with 21% who trust the SNP most on immigration.

Immigration is a particular concern for Reform UK supporters - 80% mention this as an important issue to their vote - and to a lesser extent, for Conservative supporters (38%).

⬛️The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote next May is healthcare/the NHS (57%).
⬛️This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (41%), immigration (30%), the economy (25%) and social care (25%).

🟡SNP also remain out in front on General Election voting intention, on 33% (vs. 30% achieved at the 2024 General Election).
🔵Reform UK are in second place on 20% (vs. 7% achieved in the 2024 election).
🔴Labour’s vote share has dropped to 17% (vs. 35% in the 2024 election)

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from
@ipsosinscotland.bsky.social

🟡SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share,⬆️1 since June.
🔵Reform UK stand at 18%,⬆️4 since June.
🔴Scottish Labour’s share falls to 16%, ⬇️7 since June.

Our work on 'Understanding survey nonresponse' for @scottishgov.bsky.social is published today! See below for link and very brief summary.

To celebrate Ipsos in Scotland turning 30, we asked the Scottish public to cast their minds back…

🏆 Nicola Sturgeon tops the list as Scotland’s best politician of the past 30 years — chosen by 1 in 5 Scots.
🥈Sturgeon is followed by Brown, Salmond and Dewar – all on 8%.

New report published on public opinions of data access The report outlines findings from public workshops in areas including definitions of ‘public good' and private sector access to data.

We're grateful to everyone who took part in the workshops.

Read the full report here: www.researchdata.scot/news-and-insights/new-report-published-on-public-opinions-of-data-access-for-research/

🟩 Any private sector access should be subject to rigorous and appropriate safeguards.

🟩 There is clear support for public involvement in decisions about sharing data for research, and a desire for more proactive communication to build trust and awareness.

🟩 Researchers need to demonstrate their project is in the public good before being granted access to public sector data.

🟩 Public good means there are tangible benefits, public wellbeing is prioritised over financial interests & robust safeguards to protect vulnerable groups.

Ipsos recently worked with Research Data Scotland to explore public opinions on data access for research.

The new report brings together findings from deliberative workshops where members of the public had the chance to learn, discuss & reach conclusions.

Key findings 👇

The Review is being carried out by SRUC, UHI Perth, Ipsos & other partners. A new review of the policy & delivery context was also published last week. 📘

Find out more at: ruralexchange.scot/srcpr/

#Scotland #RuralDevelopment #CommunityDevelopment

Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review: stage 1 - theories of change Stage 1 of the Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review. It sets out four interim theory of change models and an overarching theory of change for the initiatives under review. These models will act as...

We're pleased to share that the first stage of the Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review has been published.

Follow the link to see the theory of change diagrams, which show how current funding and support is expected to empower rural communities 🏡 shorturl.at/seHpl

General Election voting intention: June 2025 Scotland SNP 31% Labour 22% Reform UK 16% Conservatives 10% Green Party 10% Lib Dems 9% Other 1% SNP lead = +9 Base: 1,064 Scottish adults 18+, 12 – 18 June 2025; Headline Voting Intention: all expressing a voting intention and at least 9/10 likely to vote and usually/always vote/it depends (747). All expressing a voting intention (915). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social & STV News

SNP lead on General Election voting intention on 31%, followed by Labour on 22% (-13 points since the 2024 General Election). Reform take 3rd place on 16%, ahead of the Conservatives on 10%.

Introducing our new voting intention methodology Why Ipsos is shifting to online random probability KnowledgePanel for Voting Intention polling.

After a comprehensive internal review, these new figures are collected via Ipsos UK’s online KnowledgePanel, based on “gold standard” random probability sampling, where potential participants are recruited offline. Further information is available here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opi...

The Scottish public remain divided on the constitutional question.

Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum, 52% say they would vote Yes and 48% No.

Among all likely to vote, 10% remain undecided.

The Scottish public remain divided on the constitutional question.

Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum, 52% say they would vote Yes and 48% No.

Among all likely to vote, 10% remain undecided.

Only half (49%) of those who supported Labour at the 2024 General Election say that they would vote Labour again if an election were held tomorrow.

17% of 2024 Labour voters now say that they would now vote for Reform UK, and 9% would vote SNP.