Ipsos in Scotland

The Scottish public remain divided on Scottish independence with 51% likely to vote yes in an immediate referendum, and 49% saying they would vote no.

SNP maintain polling lead in Scotland but four in ten say they may change their minds SNP lead constituency voting intentions on 36% (+1 from early December).

For full results, please see our webpage here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-ma...

The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote in May remains healthcare/the NHS (56%).

Compared to Ipsos’ previous poll in December, inflation/the rising cost of living is down 6 points, while immigration is down 5 points.

31% of current Labour supporters who may change their vote would consider voting for the Liberal Democrats instead.

43% of current SNP supporters who may change their mind would consider voting for the Greens.

40% may change their mind on who to vote for on their constituency vote (higher than the 31% who said same in Feb 2021).

Those who currently say they’ll vote Reform UK or SNP are less likely to say they will change their vote than those currently planning to vote Labour or Conservative.

🟡SNP also lead on regional list voting intention, with 26% of the constituency vote share, ⬇️2 from Ipsos' previous poll in December.
🔴Scottish Labour are at 19%, ⬆️1.
🟢Scottish Greens are on 16%, ⬇️1.

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from @IpsosScotland and @STVnews

🟡SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 36% of the constituency vote share,⬆️1 from Ipsos' previous poll in December.
🔴Scottish Labour rises to 20%, ⬆️4.
🔵Reform UK are at 16%, ⬇️2.

NEW Holyrood voting intention

📊SNP maintain comfortable lead over Labour
📊4-point rise for Labour since Dec 2025
📊Reform UK’s share has fallen to 16%, down 2 points since Dec 2025

➡️ bit.ly/4rICate

Scotland Trends Scotland Polls and Trends: Ipsos polls on Scottish voting intention, attitudes towards parties and leaders, the issues that face Scotland and Scottish Independence.

To see polling trends for Scotland, visit: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opi...

Labour and the Conservatives have both been losing support to Reform:

· 19% of Scottish adults who voted for Labour in the 2024 General Election now say that they would vote for Reform using their constituency vote.
· Similarly, 19% of 2024 Conservative voters would now vote for Reform.

On the Holyrood list vote:

· Labour, Reform and the Greens received similar levels of support (18%, 17%, and 17% respectively), behind the SNP (on 28%).
· This is an increase of 4 percentage points for Reform since June 2025.

With elections in Holyrood approaching:

· Ipsos' constituency voting intention puts Reform on 18% (+4 since June 2025), marginally ahead of Labour (on 16%), but 17 points behind the SNP (on 35%).

Nigel Farage is in Edinburgh today to announce Reform UK’s leader in Scotland.

· Farage’s own ratings with the Scottish public (61% dissatisfied with him and 24% satisfied – a ‘net’ of -37) are better than those of Keir Starmer (-63), but worse than John Swinney (-14) or Anas Sarwar (-28).

SNP remain ahead but Reform support in Scotland rises, while Labour support slumps The SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share – a 17-point lead over Reform UK.

See our full write-up on our website here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-re...

• SNP voters are most likely to favour increased public spending, even if that means higher taxation (61% prefer statement A), followed by Labour voters (58%).

• Conservative voters are more split (41% statement A, 40% statement B).

With the Scottish Government announcing the Budget today, we revisited our latest polling on taxation and spending:

• The Scottish public show a preference for increased spending on public services, even if that means higher taxes (51% Statement A), rather than cutting taxes (26% Statement B).

NEW Holyrood voting intention

📊SNP lead with 35% of the constituency vote share
📊Reform UK’s vote share has risen to 18%, up 4 points since June
📊Scottish Labour’s share has fallen to 16%, down 7 points since June

For more Scotland polls, make sure you’re following @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social

Reform surges behind SNP as Labour support falls, poll shows Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey gives John Swinney's party a 17-point lead over Reform UK ahead of next year's Scottish Parliament election.

New @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll published by STV, finding that Reform now lead Labour on the constituency vote as immigration becomes a top 3 issue for Scottish voters for the first time.

SNP remain ahead but Reform support in Scotland rises, while Labour support slumps The SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share – a 17-point lead over Reform UK.

For full results, please see our webpage here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-re...

None of the Scottish party leaders asked about in the poll are rated positively overall:
🟡FM John Swinney is the least poorly rated (Net = -14).
🔴Anas Sarwar’s approval ratings have fallen since June (Net = -28)
🔵14% are satisfied with Russell Findlay (Net = -36)

Reform UK's messaging on immigration is resonating with a significant minority of the Scottish public. 22% trust Reform most to have the right stance on immigration - rising to 30% of men and 29% of older voters aged 55+. Compares with 21% who trust the SNP most on immigration.

Immigration is a particular concern for Reform UK supporters - 80% mention this as an important issue to their vote - and to a lesser extent, for Conservative supporters (38%).

⬛️The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote next May is healthcare/the NHS (57%).
⬛️This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (41%), immigration (30%), the economy (25%) and social care (25%).

🟡SNP also remain out in front on General Election voting intention, on 33% (vs. 30% achieved at the 2024 General Election).
🔵Reform UK are in second place on 20% (vs. 7% achieved in the 2024 election).
🔴Labour’s vote share has dropped to 17% (vs. 35% in the 2024 election)

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from
@ipsosinscotland.bsky.social

🟡SNP continue to lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 35% of the constituency vote share,⬆️1 since June.
🔵Reform UK stand at 18%,⬆️4 since June.
🔴Scottish Labour’s share falls to 16%, ⬇️7 since June.

Our work on 'Understanding survey nonresponse' for @scottishgov.bsky.social is published today! See below for link and very brief summary.

To celebrate Ipsos in Scotland turning 30, we asked the Scottish public to cast their minds back…

🏆 Nicola Sturgeon tops the list as Scotland’s best politician of the past 30 years — chosen by 1 in 5 Scots.
🥈Sturgeon is followed by Brown, Salmond and Dewar – all on 8%.

New report published on public opinions of data access The report outlines findings from public workshops in areas including definitions of ‘public good' and private sector access to data.

We're grateful to everyone who took part in the workshops.

Read the full report here: www.researchdata.scot/news-and-insights/new-report-published-on-public-opinions-of-data-access-for-research/

🟩 Any private sector access should be subject to rigorous and appropriate safeguards.

🟩 There is clear support for public involvement in decisions about sharing data for research, and a desire for more proactive communication to build trust and awareness.

🟩 Researchers need to demonstrate their project is in the public good before being granted access to public sector data.

🟩 Public good means there are tangible benefits, public wellbeing is prioritised over financial interests & robust safeguards to protect vulnerable groups.