Joshua Schwartz

The False Choice at the Heart of Netflix’s Nuclear War Thriller, “A House of Dynamite” - Modern War Institute In Kathryn Bigelow’s new film, A House of Dynamite, a nuclear missile streaks toward Chicago. The president has minutes to decide whether to respond by launching America’s own nuclear weapons. It’s gr...

What real-world lessons, if any, can we draw from the recent nuclear film "A House of Dynamite?" CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social cautions that the film’s core dilemma is a false one. Read his analysis, today in Modern War Institute mwi.westpoint.edu/the-false-ch...

Netflix’s House of Dynamite is great drama, but terrible nuclear strategy. Hopefully real-world policymakers are more savvy than the fictional ones in the film. Our survival could depend on it! Check out my take t.co/eQbzUrXUFM

Joshua A. Schwartz: Trump is wrong. Ukraine can win without attacking Russia Since returning to the White House, President Trump has made ending the Russia-Ukraine War a signature foreign policy goal. But his central premise that...

“History shows that staying power — not striking an invader’s homeland — is how the weak beat the strong.” Read the latest from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social on why it is possible for Ukraine to win without attacking Russia, today in @post-gazette.com. www.post-gazette.com/opinion/gues...

The file drawer problem and reviewer bias against null effects is real, but we should try and fight against it as a discipline. Non-findings can teach us just as much as significant findings! t.co/Q9BqPYoTGc

Really grateful for @environmentalpol.bsky.social
shortlisting my co-authored piece on fossil fuel divestment and public opinion for the best article of the year award. Check it out for an example of a published paper that finds null effects

Volume 50 Issue 1 | International Security | MIT Press

***Announcement***

The Summer 2025 issue is online!

Read articles by @drsarahphillips.bsky.social and Daniel Tower; @daveckang.bsky.social‬, Jackie S. H. Wong, and @zenobiachan.bsky.social; Wu Riqiang; Nick Anderson and Daryl Press; and Henrik Hiim and Øystein Tunsjø

direct.mit.edu/isec/issue

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5

Congrats, Dr. Alam!

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra Asymmetric Challenge: Stalemates, Strikes, and Strategy in the Age of Drones (Feat. Joshua Schwartz)

I sat down with @joshschwartz.bsky.social to discuss a bunch of big issues with drones: the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian targeting of Ukrainian cities, Operation Spiderweb, the Israel-Iran War, and U.S. investment decisions on drones.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Femj...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

How can the United States adapt to the changing nature of war? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

And you can find the syllabus with readings and assignments here: www.joshuaaschwartz.com/uploads/1/3/...

Popcorn and Politics: A Course on American Foreign Policy and Film Integrating film into traditional political science courses can provide powerful benefits. Most notably, it can increase student excitement about and thus engagement with a course. This paper offer...

Want to teach a rigorous—but fun + engaging—course on American foreign policy through the lens of film? I outline how to do so in a new article in @jpseeditors.bsky.social! From Dr. Strangelove & Battle of Algiers to Mulan & Star Trek, there's lots of connections
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/YX3CZ...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

How can the United States prepare for the future of warfare? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on how the U.S. can adapt to the changing nature of war www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

"If the Pentagon does not adjust to the new realities of warfare, it will lose the ability to deter adversaries’ aggression before it occurs" write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, & @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com. Read here:
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

“If the Pentagon does not adjust to the new realities of warfare, it will lose the ability to deter adversaries’ aggression before it occurs—and perhaps the ability to win wars,” warn @mchorowitz.bsky.social‬, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @joshschwartz.bsky.social.

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

What does the Israel-Iran War / Russia-Ukraine War suggest about emerging tech and the future of warfare? Excited to have a new @foreignaffairs.com article w/ @mchorowitz.bsky.social + @laurenakahn.bsky.social on how to bring balance to the (military) force www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

A deal that allowed Iran to enrich at low levels domestically but had longer-term restrictions on their nuke program than the JCPOA would’ve been a much more sustainable + less risky solution. But ostensibly Trump made enrichment a red line in negotiations, which I think was the key mistake (3/3)

The US and Israeli strikes will increase the incentives for Iran to try and acquire a nuke for deterrence, and the attack is only a temporary setback (albeit a big one) for their program (2/3)

So many questions about this attack, but one big one—Where is the highly-enriched uranium Iran had already produced?? Was it destroyed? If not, that seems like a huge problem for preventing Iran from getting a nuke in the short to medium term. There’s also a long-term issue with the attack (1/3)

Cheap and deadly: How drones are reshaping war | Front Burner | CBC Podcasts | CBC Listen On Sunday, Ukraine launched Operation Spider’s Web, a surprise drone attack that went deep inside Russia, reaching as far as Siberia for the first time. Ukraine says 117 drones were smuggled into Ru...

How are drones transforming modern warfare? On today's episode of CBC's Front Burner, CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social joins Jayme Poisson to explain how drones have become increasingly important to both sides of the Ukraine-Russia war and in conflicts around the world. www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-p...

Cheap and deadly: How drones are reshaping war | Front Burner | CBC Podcasts | CBC Listen On Sunday, Ukraine launched Operation Spider’s Web, a surprise drone attack that went deep inside Russia, reaching as far as Siberia for the first time. Ukraine says 117 drones were smuggled into Ru...

How are drones reshaping war in light of Ukraine's successful surprise attack against Russian airbases? I had an opportunity to join the @cbcnews-rss.bsky.social Front Burner podcast (Canada's version of the NYT Daily) to discuss
www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-p...

The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace How strong is the nexus between domestic and international politics? The democratic peace contends that democracies do not fight interstate wars against each other. We argue there is also a “left-wing...

What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O

Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below

Thanks Jen!

Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below

The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace How strong is the nexus between domestic and international politics? The democratic peace contends that democracies do not fight interstate wars against each other. We argue there is also a “left-wing...

What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O

New submission to APSA Preprints: The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace

Check it out here: https://dx.doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2025-pq9zd?rft_dat=source%3Ddrss

yes this is famously how free societies treat their universities

The hidden costs of Trump's 'madman' approach to tariffs The downsides of his trade policies are symptoms of a larger strategic flaw

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-tariffs/

Thanks very much Sara! If only we didn't need to be considering whether it applies to arguably the most powerful person in the world...