Joshua Schwartz

Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion? If so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? Read the latest research from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and UPenn's @mchorowitz.bsky.social in International Organization.

Read: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Excited to share a new article in @iojournal.bsky.social with @mchorowitz.bsky.social! We evaluate the risk of states using automated nuclear launch systems to facilitate revisionist coercive efforts. Unfortunately, we find the danger is real and should be taken seriously
doi.org/10.1017/S002...

When Trump withdraws from global agreements, will the public follow? When Trump withdraws from global agreements, will the public follow? New evidence shows that Trump’s actions can change minds, but there are limits.

As President Trump withdraws the US from intl agreements - including the Paris Agreement and WHO - Lotem Bassan-Nygate and I ask how this affects public opinion towards cooperation? We descibe our recent findings in @goodauth.bsky.social : tinyurl.com/goodauth @harvardkennedy.bsky.social 1/4

Excited to share a new article in @iojournal.bsky.social with @mchorowitz.bsky.social! We evaluate the risk of states using automated nuclear launch systems to facilitate revisionist coercive efforts. Unfortunately, we find the danger is real and should be taken seriously
doi.org/10.1017/S002...

What factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? New research by CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and UPenn's @mchorowitz.bsky.social highlights the dangers of countries adopting automated nuclear systems for malign purposes.

Read: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Automated nuclear weapons systems are not just a Hollywood plot device.

In this #Firstview article, @joshschwartz.bsky.social and @mchorowitz.bsky.social evaluate how they could impact the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Logo featuring the text "IO" in white on a purple background, accompanied by the hashtag "#OpenAccess" below it.

#OpenAccess from @iojournal.bsky.social -

Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems - https://cup.org/49YGNct

- @joshschwartz.bsky.social & @mchorowitz.bsky.social

#FirstView

“We find concerning evidence that automated nuclear weapons launch systems may enhance the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats,” write @joshschwartz.bsky.social, SSP visiting scholar, & @mchorowitz.bsky.social in their latest article for International Organization https://bit.ly/3LLxxPA

Popcorn and Politics: A Course on American Foreign Policy and Film Integrating film into traditional political science courses can provide powerful benefits. Most notably, it can increase student excitement about and thus engagement with a course. This paper offer...

Interested in teaching an engaging but rigorous course on American foreign policy and film? Check out my guide for how to do so in @jpseeditors.bsky.social. First 50 readers get free access!
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/YX3CZ...

Denied Peace Prize, Trump Tells Norway He’ll Push for Greenland

@dandrezner.bsky.social We need the toddler-in-chief thread back for its pièce de résistance!
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/w...

The Ideological Peace How does ideology impact international politics? Scholars have highlighted the role of ideological preferences about the appropriate process of policymaking, especially democracy versus nondemocracy. ...

Wondering how domestic polarization is bleeding over into foreign policy? Interested in why Trump is cozying up to right-wing countries like El Salvador + Russia while menacing left-wing Venezuela + Denmark? Check out my updated working paper w/ Dom Tierney
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...

Joshua Schwartz and Paul Lendway: Is Venezuela Iraq or Panama? Failure or success? The Trump administration’s audacious military action against Venezuela has split commentators into two camps, depending on how they read the situation...

"The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." Read the latest from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and Paul Lendway at Stanford, via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...

Joshua Schwartz and Paul Lendway: Is Venezuela Iraq or Panama? Failure or success? The Trump administration’s audacious military action against Venezuela has split commentators into two camps, depending on how they read the situation...

"However, neither Iraq nor Panama offers a perfect match to the present situation. The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." @joshschwartz.bsky.social & Paul Lendway

www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...

Pass

Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway.
doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Historical Analogies and Public Support for Foreign Policy Action - Christopher Blair, Paul Lendway, Joshua A. Schwartz, 2025 Politicians frequently use historical analogies to justify their preferred foreign policies. However, despite their prevalence, it remains unclear whether, how,...

Do historical analogies shape public opinion about foreign policymaking? Read the latest research by @chriswblair.bsky.social, Paul Lendway, and CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway.
doi.org/10.1177/0022...

The False Choice at the Heart of Netflix’s Nuclear War Thriller, “A House of Dynamite” - Modern War Institute In Kathryn Bigelow’s new film, A House of Dynamite, a nuclear missile streaks toward Chicago. The president has minutes to decide whether to respond by launching America’s own nuclear weapons. It’s gr...

What real-world lessons, if any, can we draw from the recent nuclear film "A House of Dynamite?" CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social cautions that the film’s core dilemma is a false one. Read his analysis, today in Modern War Institute mwi.westpoint.edu/the-false-ch...

Netflix’s House of Dynamite is great drama, but terrible nuclear strategy. Hopefully real-world policymakers are more savvy than the fictional ones in the film. Our survival could depend on it! Check out my take t.co/eQbzUrXUFM

Joshua A. Schwartz: Trump is wrong. Ukraine can win without attacking Russia Since returning to the White House, President Trump has made ending the Russia-Ukraine War a signature foreign policy goal. But his central premise that...

“History shows that staying power — not striking an invader’s homeland — is how the weak beat the strong.” Read the latest from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social on why it is possible for Ukraine to win without attacking Russia, today in @post-gazette.com. www.post-gazette.com/opinion/gues...

The file drawer problem and reviewer bias against null effects is real, but we should try and fight against it as a discipline. Non-findings can teach us just as much as significant findings! t.co/Q9BqPYoTGc

Really grateful for @environmentalpol.bsky.social
shortlisting my co-authored piece on fossil fuel divestment and public opinion for the best article of the year award. Check it out for an example of a published paper that finds null effects

Volume 50 Issue 1 | International Security | MIT Press

***Announcement***

The Summer 2025 issue is online!

Read articles by @drsarahphillips.bsky.social and Daniel Tower; @daveckang.bsky.social‬, Jackie S. H. Wong, and @zenobiachan.bsky.social; Wu Riqiang; Nick Anderson and Daryl Press; and Henrik Hiim and Øystein Tunsjø

direct.mit.edu/isec/issue

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5

Congrats, Dr. Alam!

YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra Asymmetric Challenge: Stalemates, Strikes, and Strategy in the Age of Drones (Feat. Joshua Schwartz)

I sat down with @joshschwartz.bsky.social to discuss a bunch of big issues with drones: the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian targeting of Ukrainian cities, Operation Spiderweb, the Israel-Iran War, and U.S. investment decisions on drones.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Femj...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

How can the United States adapt to the changing nature of war? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

And you can find the syllabus with readings and assignments here: www.joshuaaschwartz.com/uploads/1/3/...

Popcorn and Politics: A Course on American Foreign Policy and Film Integrating film into traditional political science courses can provide powerful benefits. Most notably, it can increase student excitement about and thus engagement with a course. This paper offer...

Want to teach a rigorous—but fun + engaging—course on American foreign policy through the lens of film? I outline how to do so in a new article in @jpseeditors.bsky.social! From Dr. Strangelove & Battle of Algiers to Mulan & Star Trek, there's lots of connections
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/YX3CZ...

What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.

How can the United States prepare for the future of warfare? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on how the U.S. can adapt to the changing nature of war www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...