Nicolai von Ondarza

This always seems to me a big danger for EU unity - once the US starts easing it's sanctions on Russia, the pro-Putin politicians will start arguing it would be an economic necessity for the EU to follow suit

Chinese exports to the EU grew ~25% YTD.

Meanwhile, Chinese FDI in Europe is tiny, suggesting Chinese firms have little incentive to localise production to meet EU demand.

As we argue in our new piece, the EU’s investment conditionalities on China will fail as a policy tool in isolation.

My understanding that their first aim is agenda setting, with multiple speeds/enhanced cooperation only as the second best option:

*break-up

We are entering the next stage of the strategic breal-up between Europe and the US:

Map of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism support in evacuating EU citizens from countries affected by the US/Israel-Iran war back to Europe.

A neighbour of mine was actually on a transport organised by Czechia from Israel, profiting from EU coordination.

Here we go again - UK in a changing Europe Anand Menon argues that while the UK government speaks more freely about the economic impact of Brexit and its ambitions for closer ties to the EU, its red lines will limit what it is able to achieve.

Talking about the economic impact of Brexit is one thing. Doing something about is something else entirely. Me for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/here-we-go-a...

Impeccable timing with these @financialtimes.com headlines on the same day highlighting the Trumpian US approach to its allies.

On the same day, the US is
- further easing sanctions on Russia
- starting probes to raise tariffs on EU, UK and Canada

Growing concern in EU capitals that Trump is going to pressure the EU to clear up his mess in the Strait of Hormuz. Argument being: “You guys need the oil most, so you need to do the heavy lifting” on mine sweeping, naval-based air defence & the protection of shipping lanes

Russia rakes in $150mn a day in extra revenue from surging oil prices Middle East conflict boosts Vladimir Putin’s war chest as tankers carrying Russian oil head to India

At the same time, "Russia is earning as much as $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from its oil sales, making it the biggest winner from the conflict in the Middle East."

What geostrategic fiasco for the EU/Europe, including the UK.

Enhanced Cooperation could be a way of finding a compromise for states who want to remain outside. National governments continue to be reluctant - for good reasons - to outvote countries on core national interests.

Would be bad precedent for the large members to gang up on the small.

Europe pays twice:

First directly through higher energy prices.

Second, through the lifeline this gives to Putin whose economy was on the ropes.

We may a third or fourth time if there are attacks on EU soil and migratory flows.

Not our war, but indeed also our problem.

Cost of 10 days of the US/Israel-Iran war to the European public due to rise in fossil fuels according to @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu: 3bn Euro.

Not Europe's war, but certainly also Europe's problem.

Further cracks in the 'von der Leyen' Platform - as the EPP has allied with the far-right on steps against NGOs, the centre-left has voted down a report on the EU ombudsman.

Interpret this as a warning shot that centre-left votes for the EU budget are not guaranteed:

The AI-driven ‘kill chain’ transforming how the US wages war Systems from Palantir and Anthropic are helping to turn torrents of battlefield data into thousands of strikes

"Traditionally, kill chains involved printing off documents and waiting for a senior commander to study and approve it. “Those [older] kill chains are measured in hours and sometimes days,” (...) “The point of [AI] is to shrink that into seconds and minutes, almost instantaneous"

I knew that the Department of War shot a missile into a school & killed 175 civilians, mostly children.

This is learned today:

Secretary of War Hegseth had cut the teams assigned to prevent such tragedies by 90%.
www.npr.org/2026/03/11/n...

Only if an agreement at 27 fails to materialize are the E6 likely to opt for Enhanced Cooperation, aka Europe of multiple speeds. But this is from my understanding the fallback option, not the main aim.

But just as Franco-German compromises are both essential and highly suspicious for smaller member states, some with large financial services (in particular Ireland & Luxembourg) are wary of being presented with a done deal against their interests.

My understanding is that contrary to earlier public perceptionfor the whole EU, the first aim is to work as agenda setters, in a sort of extension of the Franco-German engine of finding agreement amongst different positions, and then try to broaden that compromise to all member states.

First policy push by the new E6 group of the six largest EU economies' finance ministers.

This is for the European Council next week focusing first on the Savings and Investments Union, pushing towards more joint EU supervision:

It should be a clear warning that it is particularly Serbia pushing for the idea of EU accession without veto, hoping it can enter into the single market without fulfilling the rule of law or democracy criteria.

🎧 Worth a listen: Marina Vulović is currently a Visiting Fellow at SWP EU/Europe and discusses the dynamics of Serbia’s student protest movement on the @biepag.bsky.social-Talk.

Policy Brief: www.biepag.eu/wp-content/u...

Here's my assessment of the govt's new memo on aligning with EU SPS rules.

It tells us govt is v keen to move fast on SPS - seeing it as key to their "political argument" for closer EU relations.

But the issue is a) implementation could take a while and b) voters unlikely to feel a big effect.

Die neuen EU-Handelsabkommen mit den Mercosur-Staaten und Indien sollen Zölle senken, Märkte öffnen und Partnerschaften stärken. Im SWP-Podcast erklären @bettinarudloff.bsky.social & @tobischolz.bsky.social welche Chancen und Probleme es dabei gibt:🎧🎙️
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

How to build public support for defence spending in Europe Strategies for building a national consensus around higher defence investments and the trade-offs required.

Europeans need to rearm and invest more in defence. That involves making difficult choices about public spending, in a context where far-right parties will exploit grievances about cuts to public services.

So how should governments build a national consensus on defence? 🧵
www.cer.eu/publications...

More movement amongst the EP political groups, this time from the EPP towards the ECR. This would bring the ECR up to 81 MEPs, just below the 84 'Patriots for Europe'.

Overall, it is a further symbol of the shift within the European right away from the centre:

Well, he was foreign minister at the time. Honestly, this was one of the few things I could think of why he someone could actually nominate him for a major European honour...

It is quite funny, you can see from the list that they put a lot of thought into getting a broad geographic and political representation in this first list of people being honoured, and yet everyone will also find someone on the list to be annoyed with.

First list of the European Order of Merit honoured today.

Merkel will probably draw the most political discussion, but here I am wondering about Wolfgang Schüssel, who played a big role in bringing Austria into the EU, but was also the first to form a government with a far-right party, the FPÖ:

I remember talking to a group of students about EU foreign policy and when mentioning 9/11 and the Iraq war, all of them had this 'Well, this happened when I was in Elementary School' look... and that lesson was about 10 years ago.