Nicolai von Ondarza

'Merz has failed Europe' was the title in @spiegel.de so there definitely is critical reporting on it

Macron, who if nothing else has an intuition on when European solidarity is needed, has already called Sanchez in support today:

This is the way.

And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.

Like on other Middle East issues, European governments don’t agree on this war because of strategic differences of view, national political cultures and internal coalition poltics.

But as long as it’s a second order geopolitical issue for Europe they’ll be able to manage this disagreement.

This will be interesting for the European dynamic - Sanchez is doubling down on Spain's position towards the US/Israel war against Iran amid threats from Trump.

Big gap to Macron and even bigger gap towards Merz:

EN DIRECT, Iran : Emmanuel Macron annonce avoir « donné l’ordre que le porte-avions “Charles-de-Gaulle” fasse route vers la Méditerranée » A la suite de la frappe contre une base britannique sur Chypre, le président français a aussi annoncé l’envoi de « moyens de défense antiaérienne supplémentaires » et de la frégate « Languedoc », « qu...

What I’ll be following: what Europeans will do for freedom of navigation, where airport carrier will be deployed, what happens to EU mission ASPIDES.

www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Jetten says "moving too fast" on enlargement "is not the way forward".

"At the moment, it's not possible to set a date for enlargement with Ukraine, but it is possible to talk with them (about) how Europeans can support Ukraine in the important reforms they have undertaken."

Not sure we should devote any thought to what Trump meant when he said he could stop all trade with Spain.

But to say that and also insult the UK in front of Merz is a blatant attempt to play the Europeans against each other and Merz should have pushed back firmly.

Now the UK is also bolstering its presence in Cyprus, as Starmer announced that the UK is sending the HMS Dragon (type 45 destroyer) and helicopters with anti-drone capabilities to Cyprus.

Just spoke with President Zelenskyy.

We are focused on our shared priorities: conclude the adoption of the Ukraine Support Loan and of the 20th package of sanctions.

It is very difficult to get decent, verifiable information out of anywhere in the Middle East right now and I really discourage everyone from treating the war like a football game.

Share only what can be verified.

Derweil freut sich der #Kreml über ein weiteres Telefonat zwischen #Putin und #Orban. Besprochen haben sie die Umsetzung der bilateralen Vereinbarungen von 2025, #Iran und die Folgen für die internationalen Energiemärkte, und Wege zur Lösung der „Krise in der #Ukraine“. Sehr harmonisch alles.

Mein Versuch, nukleare Abschreckung in Europa weiterzudenken.

Eine Umsetzung ist derzeit höchst unwahrscheinlich – aber wir brauchen innovative Ideen jenseits ausgetretener Pfade.

Kritik & weitere "verrückte Ansätze" herzlich willkommen!

I think there is not enough appreciation to how good this FT visualization is

the original is like this 👇

To all those colleague who told me repeatedly over the past year that Europe would never, ever move towards any sort of stand-alone military alliance or nuclear capacity--a reminder that we all need to unleash our political imaginations to even begin to grasp the world we live in today.

Address by Macron to the French announced for tonight on the war in the Middle East and its repercussions:

OBR have revised down their forecast for net migration but this is *entirely* due to an upwards revision in the number of outwards migration by UK nationals. Still potential for another downwards shift later in the year, if the inwards migration number also drops.

All signs, roads etc pointing in that direction. Visible from space for quite some time but events have increased the urgency and likely pace of change.

So much for the argument that appeasing Trump on Iran is important to secure European security including that of Ukraine.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves just previewed a three point growth strategy - with 'Stronger post Brexit trade relations with the EU' as No.1 goal.

Though for that to be meaningful, a much broader discussion on changing the UK's stance towards getting closer to the EU will be necessary.

Greece was also mentioned, and Greece and France also have bilateral defence ties. But I have not seen any public comments from the Greek government, as I don't follow Greek politics closely.

FYI, oil price continues to climb (more worrying, for now, than the surge in natural gas)... 🤔

Brent is still well below the 2022 peaks, but the pass-through to retail prices is relatively quick and visible (notably at the pump), so a bigger risk to inflation expectations.

Now FRANCE sends warships to defend British base from Iran attacks Emmanuel Macron has ordered units to the eastern Mediterranean island after RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus was struck by a drone which pierced its air defences on Sunday night.

The Daily Mail, on the other hand, is spinning this into an embarrasement story for the UK/Starmer, percieving it as a national humilation if France sends protection for Cyprus including the British base there:

DENMARK SAYS ITS WILLING TO FUND FRENCH EU+ DETERRENT POLICY

After Macrons speech yesterday Denmark is willing to assist in funding an EU+ nuclear deterrence policy. Others are expected to follow. It’s quite extraordinary how quickly the realities of the situation are dawning on EU+ nations.

Also in general quite striking just how far apart SW1 and public opinion are. This is a war that 28 per cent of people 'support'!

Power - Contexte The EU is facing huge geopolitical uncertainty, with a shifting world order, questions around the US commitment and growing pressure on competitiveness and defence. At the same time the EU itself is ...

In inboxes as of this morning: Contexte's second-ever English-language briefing, Power, helping navigate the long game of EU policy.

⚙️ Inner workings of the institutions
🥷 Power struggles within political alliances
🚘 Who's driving Europe’s defining decisions

➡️ www.contexte.com/eu/section/p...

Must be German punctuality then if he was indeed the only one who arrived a day earlier 🙂

…— because NATO/US would fight differently, i.e. first and foremost establish air superiority, which would operationally reduce the tactical impact of drones significantly — now have an opportunity to test that assumption in real time as the strike campaign against Iran unfolds.

No, there is a clear difference. For instance they never attack Russia or China, where X etc are literally banned, over 'free speech', while the MAGA crowd and now US State Department focuses exclusively on European 'allies'.

France to send anti-drone systems to Cyprus after British base attack, report says France plans to send anti-missile and anti-drone systems to Cyprus after a British air base ​on the island was attacked by drones, the semi-official Cyprus News ‌Agency (CNA) said on Tuesday.

According to @reuters.com France is sending anti-drone systems and a frigate to Cyprus after the attack by Iranian drones, following two frigates send by Greece.

This to me underscores French ambition to provide for European security: