Nicolai von Ondarza's Avatar

Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.

13,194 Followers  |  967 Following  |  2,665 Posts  |  Joined: 04.10.2023  |  2.046

Latest posts by nvondarza.bsky.social on Bluesky

Interesting take. Though I'd argue that Spain has become incredibly polarised, so while Sanchez may have reached out to the left, he has completely broken with the centre-right, whereas Macron seemingly lost everyone.

06.10.2025 19:22 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

In any case a bigger problem here is how far effective drone defence needs to be also anchored on cheap gear that is portable enough to move in a car and easy to use enough for a regular cop. It's not just a military or border guard challenge.

06.10.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

One of the confusions around the EU's 'Drone Wall' project is that sometimes it has been named as a defensive wall _against_ Russian drones, and sometimes as a wall _of_ drones for migration surveillance.

FWIW, I would be highly in favour of the former, and very much against the latter.

06.10.2025 15:17 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ˜‚

06.10.2025 13:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Today I learned of a company called 'German Doner Kebab' and finds this cultural combination quite charming. Though Turkish people probably feel about this the same way Italians feel about 'American Pizza'...

06.10.2025 12:56 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:

06.10.2025 11:45 β€” πŸ‘ 27    πŸ” 16    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks for the quick clarifications!

06.10.2025 12:18 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

(2) Commission always supports countries/ sectors targeted by AD measures - including by filing complaintd at WTO.

So: Not a big deal, standard US protectionist machinery in action indepentent of whether Trump in power. And yes, US anti-dumping duties are very high compared to those apploed by EU

06.10.2025 11:56 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Well….

(1) This pasta case is an anti-dumping case. Established procedure based on sector complaint. This is not a Trump tariff threat as we have witnessed this year. Fairly common for Dpt of Commerce to investigate EU products. And to also single out countries. Spanish olives recently

06.10.2025 11:53 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Meta’s decision to ban ads about politics, elections, and social issues on their platforms like Facebook and Instagram in the EU is now implemented.

This is the new policy. Any ad about fx elections, civil rights, economy, health, climate, immigration, or foreign policy is now (presumably) banned.

06.10.2025 06:02 β€” πŸ‘ 24    πŸ” 23    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Also an interesting element is that this is targeting Meloni's Italy, who portrayed herself as an ally of Trump in Europe.

But I guess there are no friends when the fight is over pasta and Italian cuisine, right?

06.10.2025 11:47 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0
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EU backs Italy in Trump’s pasta tariff war US threatens to apply tariffs of up to 107% on Barilla and other makes of Italian staple over alleged dumping

The US is threatening to adopt (much) higher tariffs on Italian pasta companies.

Looking at trade experts, is this a first instance of Trump's US targeting individual EU countries with higher tariffs? @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social?

06.10.2025 11:47 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Chers FranΓ§ais, je ne veux pas vous stresser, mais il faut battre les 10 jours de mandat de Giulio Andreotti en 1972. Faites de votre mieux et bonne chance.

06.10.2025 10:18 β€” πŸ‘ 132    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 3

Politics can be brutal (for political scientists)!

06.10.2025 10:29 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Another scenario in immediate aftermath of πŸ‡«πŸ‡· PM quitting is: Macron does nothing. It took him two months to nominate Barnier after2024 elections, an unprecedented, though not strictly anticonstitutional,amount of time. He may think he can just leave this govt in place to manage things for months...

06.10.2025 09:49 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I know, I even learned to pronounce it (as well as TΓ‘naiste ;) but felt most people outside Ireland understand PM better. But @politico.eu should use the correct title for the longer article, I agree.

06.10.2025 09:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If politics are going crazy in several European countries one after the other, I think it is time to go past blaming the failures of individual political actors (and there are quite a few, both in the UK and France) to looking at the systemic pressures our political systems are failing to deal with.

06.10.2025 09:35 β€” πŸ‘ 375    πŸ” 97    πŸ’¬ 22    πŸ“Œ 11

For those not following Irish politics, the President is directly elected. Now only two candidates remain, Heather Humphreys from the centre-right FG, and Catherine Connolly (indepenent but supported from several left parties, including Sinn Fein).

06.10.2025 09:27 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Meanwhile, under the shadow of France and everything else, a political crisis is brewing in Ireland.

The candidate from the PM's party for President, Jim Gavin, withdraw this morning due to fraud allegations, pulling PM Martin with him into crisis.

06.10.2025 09:27 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

You break it, you fix it!

06.10.2025 08:51 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Another PM quits in πŸ‡«πŸ‡·, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. SΓ©bastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

06.10.2025 08:32 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

And a UK and EU debate that is always 3 months behind the curve when it comes to discourse trends in the US that will influence the European Far Right means many are missing how trends there have shifted from focus on migrant deportation to a wider hankering after "cleansing" civil war

06.10.2025 07:29 β€” πŸ‘ 83    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 3

Well, in German we have the concept of a political 'Eintagsfliege' (One day fly/mayfly).

Maybe that is a better conversion unit than a lettuce?

06.10.2025 08:15 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

The influence of far-right parties in the EU is growing. Whether the Union can continue to rely on a pro-European camp depends above all on the EPP, write @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

22.09.2025 11:24 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

#France is heading towards new elections, I think.

06.10.2025 07:58 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2
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Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..

06.10.2025 07:54 β€” πŸ‘ 43    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

That was quick- indeed a speed record for the French Republic: Lecornu has resigned 13 hours after his government was formed. Next move is now Macron's. 3 options: a 6th PM of his term (maybe from the left; in all cases expect ultrabrief lifetime); snap elections (possible); prez resigns (unlikely)

06.10.2025 07:51 β€” πŸ‘ 50    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3

(For those who count, this is about four weeks in office, even beating Liz Truss in the brevity of being PM).

06.10.2025 07:50 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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EN DIRECT, gouvernementΒ : SΓ©bastien Lecornu a prΓ©sentΓ© sa dΓ©mission Γ  Emmanuel Macron, qui l’a acceptΓ©e Le nouveau premier ministre a dΓ©missionnΓ© lundi matin, au lendemain de l’annonce des membres de son gouvernement. La nouvelle Γ©quipe annoncΓ©e hier soir Γ©tait critiquΓ©e de toutes parts.

That was quick 😬

New French PM Lecornu resigns, bringing the French government into full Zombie mode.

06.10.2025 07:48 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3
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"La Matinale EuropΓ©enne" has an English-speaking sister now!

In my first analysis, I've had a go at Austria's unbearable Neutralism - and the first little cracks appearing in this delusional veneer.

You can sign up for "Morning Post Europe" here ➑️ open.substack.com/pub/europemo...

06.10.2025 07:12 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

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