Nicolai von Ondarza

Viktor Orban is blocking the rollover of the individual sanctions against Russia.

More than 2.700 individuals and entities are in the EU black list.

The sanctions will expire on March 15.

What should Europe and Ukraine do? They need a crash course to rapidly expand their own supply, particularly SAMP-T, Europe's Patriot alternative, as well as pursue a break glass effort to innovate and bring the cost curve down. Also seek to expand production of Patriot interceptors in Europe. 5/

this means there will be huge demand for very little supply. That means deciding the Trump admin will decide who gets precious interceptors. The US will restock itself first. And then whatever is left will get political. Gulf states, Israel and Ukraine will all seek urgent deliveries. 2/

Air defence interceptors are fast becoming the scarcest defence asset on the planet.

Europe has 4 years to ramp up production of SAMP/T or Patriots (in Europe). We didn’t am that’s a huge problem - fo Ukraine and ourselves.

Now we need an urgent crash programme to do so. And we can. ↘️

Visit to the Île Longue Operational Base. On Monday, 2 March 2026, the President of the Republic visited the Île Longue operational base.

Official translation of French President Macron’s Monday, 2 March speech on nuclear deterrence www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-...

Clarity First:majority of EU-US negotiating team of @EP_Trade agreed to reassess situation again next week. Businesses&consumers need stable tariff regime&we still don’t have that. Cannot take decisions in a vacuum. Would be irresponsible to adopt legisl. without legal certainty

France has formally asked the Dutch government to send one of its air defense frigates along with its aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean. HNLMS Evertsen is already part of the carrier strike group around the Charles de Gaulle, which was exercising in northern Europe.

After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act.

This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start.

Some quick thoughts:

The second piece of good news: the new local content rules would not wall the EU off from its trading partners.

Under the Commission’s proposal for a “Union preference,” all countries with which the EU has a free trade agreement would count as local content.

Here we go - EU industry chief Stephane Sejourne presents the long-awaited Industrial Accelerator Act

"What I'm talking to you about isn't just a change in our modus operandi - it's actually a change in doctrine. This is something that was unthinkable even just a few months ago"

Germany's intelligence service BND says Russia's federal deficit was actually 3.6% of GDP in '25, not 2.6%. This was exactly my final estimate in December, based on past spending patterns (random but funny: I estimated 8.02 trillion). If true, the deficit was probably hidden in other public budgets.

'Merz has failed Europe' was the title in @spiegel.de so there definitely is critical reporting on it

Macron, who if nothing else has an intuition on when European solidarity is needed, has already called Sanchez in support today:

This is the way.

And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.

Like on other Middle East issues, European governments don’t agree on this war because of strategic differences of view, national political cultures and internal coalition poltics.

But as long as it’s a second order geopolitical issue for Europe they’ll be able to manage this disagreement.

This will be interesting for the European dynamic - Sanchez is doubling down on Spain's position towards the US/Israel war against Iran amid threats from Trump.

Big gap to Macron and even bigger gap towards Merz:

EN DIRECT, Iran : Emmanuel Macron annonce avoir « donné l’ordre que le porte-avions “Charles-de-Gaulle” fasse route vers la Méditerranée » A la suite de la frappe contre une base britannique sur Chypre, le président français a aussi annoncé l’envoi de « moyens de défense antiaérienne supplémentaires » et de la frégate « Languedoc », « qu...

What I’ll be following: what Europeans will do for freedom of navigation, where airport carrier will be deployed, what happens to EU mission ASPIDES.

www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Jetten says "moving too fast" on enlargement "is not the way forward".

"At the moment, it's not possible to set a date for enlargement with Ukraine, but it is possible to talk with them (about) how Europeans can support Ukraine in the important reforms they have undertaken."

Not sure we should devote any thought to what Trump meant when he said he could stop all trade with Spain.

But to say that and also insult the UK in front of Merz is a blatant attempt to play the Europeans against each other and Merz should have pushed back firmly.

Now the UK is also bolstering its presence in Cyprus, as Starmer announced that the UK is sending the HMS Dragon (type 45 destroyer) and helicopters with anti-drone capabilities to Cyprus.

Just spoke with President Zelenskyy.

We are focused on our shared priorities: conclude the adoption of the Ukraine Support Loan and of the 20th package of sanctions.

It is very difficult to get decent, verifiable information out of anywhere in the Middle East right now and I really discourage everyone from treating the war like a football game.

Share only what can be verified.

Derweil freut sich der #Kreml über ein weiteres Telefonat zwischen #Putin und #Orban. Besprochen haben sie die Umsetzung der bilateralen Vereinbarungen von 2025, #Iran und die Folgen für die internationalen Energiemärkte, und Wege zur Lösung der „Krise in der #Ukraine“. Sehr harmonisch alles.

Mein Versuch, nukleare Abschreckung in Europa weiterzudenken.

Eine Umsetzung ist derzeit höchst unwahrscheinlich – aber wir brauchen innovative Ideen jenseits ausgetretener Pfade.

Kritik & weitere "verrückte Ansätze" herzlich willkommen!

I think there is not enough appreciation to how good this FT visualization is

the original is like this 👇

To all those colleague who told me repeatedly over the past year that Europe would never, ever move towards any sort of stand-alone military alliance or nuclear capacity--a reminder that we all need to unleash our political imaginations to even begin to grasp the world we live in today.

Address by Macron to the French announced for tonight on the war in the Middle East and its repercussions:

OBR have revised down their forecast for net migration but this is *entirely* due to an upwards revision in the number of outwards migration by UK nationals. Still potential for another downwards shift later in the year, if the inwards migration number also drops.

All signs, roads etc pointing in that direction. Visible from space for quite some time but events have increased the urgency and likely pace of change.

So much for the argument that appeasing Trump on Iran is important to secure European security including that of Ukraine.