Eva Vriens

3. Of sociale media tot "een verarming van sociale contacten" leiden is daarentegen wel degelijk onderzocht, bijvoorbeeld door Vriens (@evavriens.bsky.social) en Van Ingen: doi.org/10.1177/1461.... Het antwoord is negatief! (4/4)

The event will include discussions on topics that matter most to participants. Our goal is to create a space for meaningful exchange and shared reflection.

If you have suggestions for discussion themes, we’d love to hear them! Feel free to get in touch here or via email at womensforumINAS@gmail.com

This year’s INAS will be hybrid – and so will the Women’s Forum! We will offer online and offline activities so you can join in even if you are not travelling to NYC. Sign up for the Women’s Forum for updates and join our Slack channel for more information.

Analytical sociologists make sure to follow the Women’s Forum of INAS here on bluesky for updates of what women within the analytical sociology community are working on.

@evavriens.bsky.social showing our work on using #participatoryabm to introduce #complexity and #sustainability to teens at #CS2Italy #gaming #cooperation #fossr #cnr #istc #irpps

Cover image of Experimental Sociology by Barrera, Gërxhani, Kittel, Miller and Wolbring.

'Experimental Sociology' by Davide Barrera, Klarita Gërxhani, Bernhard Kittel, @luismmiller.bsky.social & @tobiaswolbring.bsky.social.

Gives a comprehensive overview of the state of the art, different designs, and methodological controversies in experimental sociology.

📚 cup.org/3Cld4M6 📚

Two quotes by the brilliant @fisherdanar.bsky.social that resonate: (1) "activism and engagement must create community and solidarity" and (2) "If we work to cultivate resilience in our communities we can help to limit the human suffering that will come as the world warms"

Is this #justcollapse?

"Historical responsibility is ethically complex, but it is clear that colonial powers had a significant influence on landscapes, natural resource use and development patterns taking place under their rule."
- Holding former colonial rulers accountable for past emissions in occupied territories

What will the world actually look like at 1.5°C of warming? By the time we hit that temperature, further climate changes will already be locked in and unavoidable.

I wrote this on 1.5°C eight years ago

"Depending on climate sensitivity and natural variability, we could conceivably see the first year above 1.5°C as early as the late 2020s – but it is more likely to be later"

It's looking like I was a bit too optimistic 🧵

theconversation.com/what-will-th...

Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

oh WHEW it’s only five catastrophic tipping points

Thanks again for organizing! I really hope we can somehow make this a recurring meeting

The conference will feature a women’s event on May 29 to establish a Women’s Forum for Analytical Sociology----organized by the fantastic @amaliaab.bsky.social, @selcanmutgan.bsky.social, and @evavriens.bsky.social

As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms. The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered. Conditions are going to get very distressing and potentially unmanageable for large regions of the world, with the 2.6°C warming expected over the course of the century, even if the self-proposed national emissions reduction commitments of the Paris Agreement are met (UNEP 2022b). We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical conflict. Massive suffering due to climate change is already here, and we have now exceeded many safe and just Earth system boundaries, imperiling stability and life-su

"We are entering an unfamiliar domain regarding our climate crisis, a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity"

Keep the words of these scientists in your mind when you hear feeble, jelly-like centrists arguing that climate policy that works fast is "too radical"

Free riding in climate protests - Nature Climate Change Protest plays an essential role in promoting climate actions, yet individual participation decisions are influenced by expectations about other people’s attendance. This study displays evidence on s...

Understanding climate protest participation: Individuals who expect many other people to participate are less likely to participate themselves.
This result suggests that FFF's decentralized strategy is very effective in motivating people to join protests. #ClimateSky www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Figure showing temperature rising, with a big jump in 2023

There is a 90% chance that 2023 will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.

[Oh, but it is only one year & not the trend. Well, the trend looks pretty ominous too!]

Great analysis by @rarohde.bsky.social, do read: berkeleyearth.org/september-20...

How do we need to combine individual predictions to maximize prediction accuracy, i.e., Wisdom of the Crowd? We invite YOU to propose an aggregation mechanism that will compete with other research teams' suggestions in a number of prediction tasks. Interested? Read more: woccap.com Please repost!

September 2023 beat the previous record for that month by 0.5C, the largest jump in temperature ever seen. September was about 1.8C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Datasets from European and Japanese scientists confirm the leap. The heat is the result of the continuing high levels of carbon dioxide emissions combined with a rapid flip of the planet’s biggest natural climate phenomenon, El Niño. The previous three years saw La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which lowers global temperature by a few tenths of a degree as more heat is stored in the ocean.

If COVID19 was the climate crisis in fast-forward, I guess we're somewhere around mid-February 2020, in climate terms?

It still hasn't sunk in, but it is starting to sink in, and it doesn't feel good at all.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Would you like to use GPT-4 and other few-shot learning algorithms to annotate massive corpora? So do we! But before we did so, we reviewed the evidence. Here are the main takeaways from our systematic review:

Line graph time series of Antarctic sea ice extent for each year in September from 1979 to 2023. There are no statistically significant long-term trends. 2023 is the lowest on record in this time series.

Apologies, but I am going to leave you with another extreme event graph today...

🚨 Last month averaged the lowest Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of September.

This was 1,690,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from the NSIDC at nsidc.org/data/seaice_... 🧪⚒️