Thiago Moreira

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29.08.2025 03:20 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Diary I decided to keep a record of my thoughts as events transpire, a diary.

Here is the update through Week 6, early because I am traveling. adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary

24.03.2025 14:44 — 👍 27    🔁 7    💬 2    📌 3

With survey data, I show that as the perceived polarization increases, partisans are less likely to have a negative view of the economy under their party’s administration, and those who still hold a negative economic evaluation are less likely to punish their party for it. 3/3

24.03.2025 21:51 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Using county-level data, I show that increasing polarization over time is associated with a decrease in the number of voters who cast a ballot for the opposition or abstain in response to negative economic conditions. The results are robust for the LDV and a time trend. 2/3

24.03.2025 21:51 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

What happens to economic voting under high polarization? In this @bjpols.bsky.social paper, I argue that voters stick with their preferred party as the ideological distance between parties increases, reducing their propensity to hold incumbents accountable for economic outcomes. 1/3

24.03.2025 21:51 — 👍 15    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 1

New (open access) publication with @philipp-kerler.bsky.social. We draw on fieldwork to build a theoretical model that outlines the conditions when the expectation of clientelism can drive selective political engagement, something we call asymmetric participation. #distributivepolitics #clientelism

14.02.2025 15:41 — 👍 13    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 0

Why democracy, backsliding, or autocracy? Unabashedly, I think this model has exceptionally rich results. The introductory overview is intended to be self-explanatory without delving into the math. See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf

18.11.2024 15:51 — 👍 60    🔁 18    💬 2    📌 2

My 6th APSA. Crazy how fast time flies.

05.09.2024 21:18 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Heading to APSA in Philly. If you will be there and still don't have plans for Saturday afternoon, drop by to see our presentation. José Cheibub, Andrea Junqueira, and I study effective participation across income groups with granular electoral data from Brazil.

04.09.2024 15:39 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0