Hannah Al-Othman

It’s a running joke in academia that Matt Goodwin is bad at maths.

This sort of thing is why: the combined Labour/Green vote could have split in any way possible and Goodwin would have finished 2nd or 3rd. He did not lose because progressives coordinated. He lost *in spite of them not doing so*.

For the South Manchester followers only 🤣

People say Levenshulme is full of Chorlton wannabes, but I bet they’re jealous of us in Chorlton this morning.

Worth noting that even if Labour and the Greens had split the vote exactly evenly – the absolute worst case scenario for the stop Reform majority in the seat – Matt Goodwin still didn’t have enough votes to sneak a victory.

He's clearly wrong about this. The 65% who voted Green or Labour weren't "told how to vote" - they debated and argued about it until election day then split 40-25 between two parties that wanted to beat Reform, whose 29% was never going to be enough even with a split vote
bsky.app/profile/hann...

A Green majority of 4,402 in Gorton & Denton.

Not even close by today’s standards.

Gorton & Denton result:

Reform: 10,578

Green: 14,980

Labour: 9,364

Tory: 706

Lib Dem: 653

Speaking to journalists, Matt Goodwin says Reform were beaten by “a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate the constituency.”

He says “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”

Matt Goodwin has just arrived at the count.

Declaration expected shortly.

Labour’s Angeliki Stogia has arrived at the count.

No sign yet of Matt Goodwin.

We don’t see any of them — we’re not allowed in that bit, but party observers seemed to be getting a good look at most of them from what I could gather.

So the ballot papers are verified first, and agents from the various parties are allowed to watch. From that it’s often possible to get a good idea of who’s in the lead; particularly if that lead is sizeable.

I am!

Election result for Gorton and Denton (Constituency) - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament Shows the election result of the 2024 General Election.

That’s the figure on Wikipedia, but my source is the parliament website, which I imagine is more reliable.

Council staff also said GE turnout was ~48%.

members.parliament.uk/constituency...

Turnout in Gorton & Denton is 47.62%.

It was 47.8% at the general election in 2024.

Very early days yet — counting hasn’t even started — but from verification it looks like the Greens are clearly ahead in Gorton & Denton.

It’s looking very close between Labour and Reform for second place.

I got non-voter vibes…

Literally only ever when people accuse me of inventing interactions!

It’s a Ring doorbell, it automatically records everyone who comes to the door… They’re all the rage nowadays!

Window cleaner has chosen tonight of all nights to come round for his money. (I live in Gorton & Denton.)

I said I thought he was another election person and he said “it’s worse tonight trying to knock on doors than Halloween”

What a weird thing that would be to make up!

Have you ever had an experience of an election campaign? Generally people knock on doors and talk to voters, particularly in tight contests. I can tell you all about it.

Hard as it may be to believe, I had Labour too! But here’s the Greens.

🤨 I’m sorry but is absolutely not presented as an opinion. It’s presented as fact, with dodgy data to back it up.

It’s bad from the Greens, it’s bad from Labour, and it shouldn’t be allowed.

“No one else can win”. Any independent pollster has said any one of three candidates can win.

This is presenting internal door knocking returns as polling data; it’s deeply, deeply misleading.

I honestly think it should be made illegal to put absolute unverified nonsense on an election leaflet.

Just had the Greens at my door saying (among other things) that Labour have been putting out false information on their leaflets, and I said YES AND I HATE THAT, BUT SO HAVE YOU! A lot of glass houses round here…

Just checking… you do know these are cats?

Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning.

It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.

Two (2) Dreamies

Coming to a leaflet near you!