Zaur Shiriyev

How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...

Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Soar, Threatening Moscow’s Influence

Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions:

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...

The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.

A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.

The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.

www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social

The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.

A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”

Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...

In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...

As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.

Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Rewarding Russian Aggression Would Send Shockwaves Across Eurasia From Georgia to Kazakhstan, all eyes are on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine—and the outcome will determine Moscow’s capacity to project influence.

Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.

My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.

So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko

Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...

In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.

The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...

Thanks a lot, Tom —really appreciate you reading and sharing it.

My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...

Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...

Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward After decades of conflict, the two moved closer to a peace deal. But outside support, especially from Ankara, is critical to maintain momentum.

My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Zaur Shiriyev: The Lasting Effect of Flight 8243 on Baku’s Relationship to Moscow To understand the implications of the Azerbaijani Airlines airplane crash on December 25, 2024, for Russian-Azerbaijani relations, we turn to Dr. Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie R...

Azerbaijan-Russia relations are evolving, and I shared my insights on the shifting dynamics—please check it out here: caucasuswatch.de/en/interview...

An Azerbaijani author of fierce political courage and local loyalty People and Trees is a pastoral set in Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1940s. If that sounds dull, then do not be deceived: Akram Aylisli’s novel is anything but.

On Akram Aylisli's wonderful early novel from the 1960s, People and Trees, now in English for the first time in Katherine Young's beautiful translation. A village, where the men are lost to the war, the women are in charge, modernity has arrived and a boy grows up www.the-tls.co.uk/literature/f...

Beyond the Divide Reflections on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia—politics, culture, and literature, through the lens of Zaur Shiriyev, shared in English and Azerbaijani.

I’ve started a Telegram channel, Beyond the Divide, where I share insights on politics, culture, economics, and literature, with a focus on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Join here: t.me/beyondthediv...

For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...

Putin Apologizes but Does Not Take Responsibility for Azerbaijani Plane Crash President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told the Azerbaijani leader, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone call, “that the tragic incident took place in Russian airspace.”

Mr. Putin’s statement “is a textbook example of a non-apology apology,” Mr. Shiriyev said in an email interview. “There was no direct acceptance of responsibility, no offer of compensation, and no commitment to hold those responsible accountable.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/w...

Probe Points to Russian Air Defenses Causing Azerbaijan Airlines Crash The plane was diverted from Russia and had its GPS jammed before crashing in Kazakhstan, killing 38.

Quoted in @wsj.com on the plane crash: “Baku’s expectation is not only an apology but also an explanation why the pilots’ request to land was denied and why their GPS was jammed over the Caspian Sea—both of which could have saved the plane and its passengers.”
www.wsj.com/world/probe-...

At a roundtable in Istanbul on #Armenia-#Azerbaijan-#Türkiye relations, I argued the Baku-Yerevan talks are better seen as a normalization process—not peace—since peace remains vague and undiscussed. I also shared thoughts on U.S. influence. Insights here: caucasusedition.net/roundtable-d...