Hans Gutbrod

October Overview on State of Play in Georgia Where are we now? Some provisional thoughts.

October Overview on State of Play in Georgia -- some provisional thoughts.

Comments welcome.
open.substack.com/pub/hansgutb...

The rest of the interview is pretty OK & says sensible things.

IPN chose the headline that most emphasizes differences in the oppo camp. (In my view, Oppo spectrum should on principle stop assessing each other. Nobody wins.)

Test it with the flag of Brittany to confuse them...

Here the archive version of the article. Essential reading to understand Georgia.
archive.md/2025.10.06-0...

More in the coming days.

The kids on the barricades are not with any party or group but express the deep anger of many that their future is being stolen.

GD has nothing to offer but corruption -- and now is taking away even that! (Friend sent this, 30m ago.)

What to make of the day? Overall a show of strength -- but not one of direction.

That strength after months of repression remains impressive, but it won't be enough to get the country back on track, without a clearer, concerted strategy.

Protest group coming down Rustaveli. Now it's quite some numbers.

And they keep coming. #Tbilisi #Georgia

To me, it's a tiny indication that GD might indeed think about snap parliamentary election, in which they can say that this problem is addressed.

(It's also an indirect admission, of course, that it was a *pivotal* undermining of secrecy last year & courts should have challenged it.)

Since I'm a voter (& was not in favor of boycott & said so clearly from spring) -- they brought in a tiny improvement to make the ink stain less of a problem, a paper cover when feeding ballot into machine. #Georgia

Actually it's with Bera and his wife, who is also visible.

If you don't cycle in Tbilisi, you miss some of its prettiest sights. Almost midnight by the Mtkvari.

#Tbilisi #Georgia

GIP tried to be as constructive as one can be, talked to GD, maintained relations as long as one could -- great org to work with.

Sign of the depth of the repressive assault they have to suspend their work, too.

The Mt Tabori Golf & Spa is taking yr bookings now, starting at $400/ night.

Stark contrast between luxury rooms that practically no non-stealing Georgian can afford, while decent people get locked into prison. #Tbilisi #Georgia

Good & necessary step, quite a few other steps should follow.

#Georgia

Thx!

Prison and exile: how Ivanishvili deals with former allies How former allies became enemies of Georgia’s de facto ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili

The system founder of Georgian Dream, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has built up to rely on power is walking into the same entrapment as other autocratic regimes (yet much faster it seems): paranoia about his own allies.

jam-news.net/prison-and-e...

With Real Estate & Construction stalled & Public Admin (+9.1%) & Finance (+11.8%) accelerating amidst overall sector weakness, this growth is "a wonder," not genuine development. According to Khishtovani, the foundation of the economy is weak.
This translation from his FB. Data here also.

Nearly all growth comes from ICT (+37.1%) & Education (+28.9%), which are "black boxes." ICT growth is often paper-based (int'l companies serving abroad), while the Education surge is unexplained. Real economic activity and jobs are not following suit. #Geostat

interesting analysis by Goga Khishtovani, from FB. He says:
#Georgia's "amazing economic growth" is misleading. Core sectors like Agriculture (−2.5%), Construction (−2.6%), and Trade (∼+1.5%) are stagnant or shrinking. The growth is heavily reliant on a few unstable drivers.

grim to read all of this, but sadly plausible...

It's a super sensitive issue, but in my mind Georgia should have tried for fudge with de facto South Ossetia. They desperately need traffic -- and give them pollution, too.

Instead, $1bn to destroy some of your grandest destinations.

(Many will legitimately disagree, but I'd be more tactical.)

Real campaigning on real truths: you're not a legitimate government when you lock up truly decent people.

Essential work also by @mariamnikuradze.bsky.social & @ocmedia.bsky.social

Mevlud Sabashvili -- Georgian Filmmaker at FOMO Cinema A great evening, engaging short films, also on social issues.

my quick write up why you should pay attention to Mevlud Sabashvili's great short films, on social issues, set in Batumi, and refreshing in their direct engagement!

#cinema #georgia
hansgutbrod.substack.com/p/mevlud-sab...

happened again today...

(I was only aware of this from 1930s books.)

there was never sufficient debate on the $1bn Gudauri bypass, which will likely ruin Kazbegi as a tourist resort, because it cannot sustain that level of traffic -- in the end, v incoherent policy.

That billion is not free money, too.

A Terrible Guide to Responsible Statecraft - Civil Georgia On July 31, 2024, Anatol Lieven, the Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Res

here is my piece on Anatol Lieven from last year. In the past, he wrote interesting things, some of which I cite.

For some time now, he simply cannot be seen as a scholar acting in good faith. h/t
@mel.ge
civil.ge/archives/619...

I have previously written on the moral & scholarly bankruptcy of Anatol Lieven.

This to me squarely confirms my (harsh) view.

There isn't anyone even in GD who believes that Kavelashvili has anything substantial to say, or had any say.

This in an entirely empty charade.

Georgian Dream going extra mile to provoke the Trump Administration.

Fawning will hardly get them much in China, but sponsored post seems like an extra attempt to draw attention in DC.

In my mind, Irakli Kobakhidze is just in berserk mode, in all directions, incl against internal GD foes.

Khasaia, originally from Sokhumi, Abkhazia, has been actively involved in the #GeorgiaProtests. He has already been arbitrarily arrested several times and even physically assaulted. 5/5