Lance Brozdowski

NEW POD

Jack Harris makes his Bar-B-Cast debut as guest co-host!

- where the Dodgers fit in the current top free agent hitter stand-off
- Tarik Skubal vs. DET in arb = #ScoBoScoBo update
- Good/Bad/Uggla

plus: @lancebroz.bsky.social on Edward Cabrera, Owen Caissie, and COL's pitching future 👀

Keith Law outlines what Cubs could trade for MacKenzie Gore Keith Law joins Lance Brozdowski as they discuss the state of the Chicago Cubs' farm system, Owen Caissie's potential impact in 2026, how different Triple-A talent compares to 10 years ago, and much m...

I joined @lancebroz.bsky.social on the Cubs Weekly podcast this week to talk about the Cubs' system and what it might hypothetically take to trade for Mackenzie Gore: art19.com/shows/cubs-w...

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski High Breaking Balls Are The Future?!

reminded me of the point @lancebroz.bsky.social raised in a recent video about high breaking balls youtu.be/0f_Za_aFujA?...

Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026!

⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE

This is going to continue expanding in MLB in the coming years.
And with ABS coming too, the valuation of catchers in MLB is going to change drastically.
With decreased need for pitch framing/calling inevitable in the future what skills will teams begin to emphasize from the position? More Offense?

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski This INSANE Strategy Will Take Over MLB

The Marlins are calling pitches from the dugout.

Let's discuss what usage models are, how they serve as a guide, and why more teams in the league will adopt this strategy in the future... unless catchers have something to say about it. 👀

Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMYS...

UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped!

Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡

Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...

Probably a pass for me. 4S shape isn't great and results aren't good against AAA righties. It's a high release, spin feel looks decent. SL, CH, SWP all probably suffice but feels a bit limited by the fastball shapes and velocity

UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped!

Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡

Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...

Passive teams are the most interesting to me. That lines up with most pro-data, swinging isn’t incredibly productive (as dumb as that sounds).

Might be interesting to look at multi-year samples? Could help you ID bias in player acq modeling for orgs. Would bet most good offenses are low swing. 🤔

Interesting, yeah. I think a lot of the time I look at MiLB org stuff because it’s bigger sample. Could run into some small sample stuff with MLB only. But! There are probably some inklings of fun stuff here.

It's the year of the pitch mix!

Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?

Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc

😂😂😂 this feels like a job for @pitchingninja.com

I’m sure he’s cookin up nicknames as we speak.

I went this year to meet people I've known online for forever but had never been in the same room with. @lancebroz.bsky.social, Dan Blewitt, @harrypav.bsky.social , @michaelrosen.bsky.social, @nickwan.bsky.social.

But it's a great event. Thanks, @brooksbaseball.net and crew.

Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace...

Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage

Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀

Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...

I’ll look into this and circle back when I get a sec.

It was my read that he ditched the sweeper at higher levels of the minors and was just ripping lifted SL thing.

Have to refresh my brain on his plots

Who has the best bullpen in MLB?

Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I

just recorded today’s pod with special guest host @lancebroz.bsky.social filling in for Jake on vacation

long overdue collab with one of the best in the business, really fun recap of all the action from the weekend

in your feeds 🔜

NEW POD

@lancebroz.bsky.social joins as special guest host!

- MIL keep on winning; Woodruff, Contreras, Isaac Collins (!) star in sweep of NYM
- PHI builds big NL East lead
- can SEA win AL West?
- NYY still down bad
- Dylan Cease's evolution evokes league-wide trend
- and SO much more!

Zebby, Wentz: lancebroz.substack.com/p/twins-zebb...
McGonigle, Walcott ($): lancebroz.substack.com/p/milb-hitti...
Mejia, Tolle ($): lancebroz.substack.com/p/orioles-es...

Recent stuff to hit my Substack...

⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)

Links in thread! 👀

Yep, he's thrown 11 this season, easy to see that increasing in usage. I'd go full mix approach and give him sinker (for RHH) and curveball (for LHH). He also had a cutter back in 2023 that he's turfed since

I believe somebody has an article on this somewhere, can't seem to find it (think it related to Clay Holmes). I remember the number being about 2-2.5 mph drop. Still going to be above-average stuff. Probably 123 down to like 110?

Bigger issue is with his health track record and location scores.

Fried's cutter development is really fascinating, we've been tracking it for a long while. This year he really made it a distinct offering, Lance does a great job breaking down how he (ahem) seams to be doing it. Many more goodies within the video, too.

Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS.

A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU

Man, interesting one. I don't think I like the shape at all, but the results are hard to refute there. It has 2S movement? Extreme efficiency tail to it. Little more concerned with location to LHH than RHH. Even with really good stuff models, inevitably going to miss some dudes!

Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades.

-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI

Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky.

He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.

Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔

My thoughts on the arms going back to Arizona alongside Locklear for Suarez are below. Both reliever outlooks. Cranton's fastball is electric.

This return feels light for one of the best rental bats available ... don't think I'm the only one that believes that...

Stephen is a great get for the #Guardians.

Big carry 4S, high slot, ++ zone feel. 72% strike rate, average swg strk, great underlying contact quality allowed (<.300 xwOBAcon).

93 mph, 20" VB, 9" arm-side, 6.6' ext, 6.2' release

More data of his in the screenshot below!