Kyle Marquardt's Avatar

Kyle Marquardt

@kailmarkvart.bsky.social

Professor, @sampol.bsky.social; Project Manager, @vdeminstitute.bsky.social; Iowan; klmarquardt.com

968 Followers  |  913 Following  |  120 Posts  |  Joined: 02.09.2023
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Posts by Kyle Marquardt (@kailmarkvart.bsky.social)

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๐Ÿ’ก How does V-Dem assess the levels of democracy in a country?
Watch the video or read the thread below to find out!
๐Ÿงต1(7)

#VDemMethodology #VDemData #Polisky #PolDataSky #SocialScienceData #PoliSciSky

@vdemamlat.bsky.social @digitalsocietyproject.org

04.03.2026 11:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Every time I read a โ€œx LLM is better at doing my job than I amโ€ article, it turns out the person writing the piece is at best 50th percentile for their job. My theory is these people are trying to position themselves as AI pros because they know theyโ€™re going to get fired soon

03.03.2026 17:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 369    ๐Ÿ” 50    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 17    ๐Ÿ“Œ 10

-There is no clear domestic consensus or authorization of force from Congress.

-There is no international consensus or authorization (e.g., via Security Council vote).

-There is no clear strategic rationale. (Not clear that stated purpose holds up to scrutiny, especially imminent threat).

28.02.2026 09:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 96    ๐Ÿ” 14    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War People will die and nothing will be accomplished

My thoughts

open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...

28.02.2026 08:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 695    ๐Ÿ” 208    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 13    ๐Ÿ“Œ 20

Iโ€™m not watching that video st 3am but I donโ€™t need to see it know this is a grave violation of US and international law. From my area of study I can tell you that itโ€™s easy to think the UN Charter doesnโ€™t mean much, but we want to live in a world that values its prohibition on aggressive warfare

28.02.2026 08:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1079    ๐Ÿ” 215    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
Weeks before Russiaโ€™s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian-led CSTO forces intervened in Kazakhstanโ€™s January 2022 Qandy Qantar protests at the governmentโ€™s request. Many observers predicted this intervention would deepen Kazakhstanโ€™s dependence on Russia, leading to support for Moscowโ€™s invasion. Yet Kazakhstanโ€™s subsequent actions defied these expectations. This study examines how the Kazakhstani government strategically framed and managed domestic unrest within a shifting geopolitical context, from initially emphasizing foreign threats to justify CSTO intervention to later reframing reforms as necessary for protecting sovereignty amid global upheaval. Through analysis of evolving state narratives and policy decisions, we demonstrate how great power-centric analysis overlooks the sophisticated ways states navigate asymmetric relationships. This case illustrates the importance of examining how smaller states in asymmetric relationships strategically manage both domestic and international pressures to advance their interests.

Weeks before Russiaโ€™s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian-led CSTO forces intervened in Kazakhstanโ€™s January 2022 Qandy Qantar protests at the governmentโ€™s request. Many observers predicted this intervention would deepen Kazakhstanโ€™s dependence on Russia, leading to support for Moscowโ€™s invasion. Yet Kazakhstanโ€™s subsequent actions defied these expectations. This study examines how the Kazakhstani government strategically framed and managed domestic unrest within a shifting geopolitical context, from initially emphasizing foreign threats to justify CSTO intervention to later reframing reforms as necessary for protecting sovereignty amid global upheaval. Through analysis of evolving state narratives and policy decisions, we demonstrate how great power-centric analysis overlooks the sophisticated ways states navigate asymmetric relationships. This case illustrates the importance of examining how smaller states in asymmetric relationships strategically manage both domestic and international pressures to advance their interests.

Recently published:

Elite Narratives and State Response to Kazakhstanโ€™s Qandy Qantar Protests
by Hannah S. Chapman and Raushan Zhandayeva

online.ucpress.edu/cpcs/article...

28.02.2026 04:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

say that to Boxer from Animal Farmโ€™s face I dare you

25.02.2026 15:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 186    ๐Ÿ” 15    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Putin started a war against Ukraine to force it into the sphere of influence Russia's been desperate to create since the USSR's collapse. As a result, modern Ukraine has never been more hostile to Russia and there's no chance of it becoming part of a sphere of Russian influence.

24.02.2026 14:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 116    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Putin has failed in Ukraine, thanks to the incredible bravery and resilience of Ukrainians. He is currently winning in the US. Whether he succeeds in the rest of Europe is up to us.

24.02.2026 14:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 155    ๐Ÿ” 31    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Picture of new V-Dem Institute director Steven Wilson, with the quote "As new incoming director, my first priority is to keep doing what V-Dem has been doing successfully for nearly two decades: measure the different dimensions of democracy with the highest scientific rigor. I also bring with me my own research interest in digital politics and cybersecurity, in relation to democracy".

Picture of new V-Dem Institute director Steven Wilson, with the quote "As new incoming director, my first priority is to keep doing what V-Dem has been doing successfully for nearly two decades: measure the different dimensions of democracy with the highest scientific rigor. I also bring with me my own research interest in digital politics and cybersecurity, in relation to democracy".

๐Ÿ“ฃ We welcome Steven Wilson as Associate Professor at the Dept. of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg and new V-Dem Institute Director.
We asked Steven a few questions about his new role, his priorities for V-Dem, and his research interest: v-dem.net/news/new-v-d...
More below ๐Ÿ‘‡
๐Ÿงต 1(3)

24.02.2026 10:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

February 21 is International Mother Language Day, a day created to promote linguistic and cultural diversity as well as multilingualism. In honor of the day, letโ€™s take a look back at some of the language issues weโ€™ve covered in our Regions Calling newsletter.

21.02.2026 14:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (295112) | University of Oslo Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (295112), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, March 16, 2026

๐Ÿ“ฃCfA for a Postdoctoral Fellow Position in political science (3-4 years) as part of the ERC project โ€œWaging of Warโ€ (WOW) - PI Scott Gates. The application deadline is March 16th, 2026.
www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

12.02.2026 08:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 10    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (294884) | NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology Job title: ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (294884), Employer: NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Deadline: Wednesday, April 29, 2026

We have a vacant position as Associate Professor in Political Science (International Relations). Deadline April 29. Please apply or distribute. www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

12.02.2026 07:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 27    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Fifty years of the third wave(s): from democratization to autocratization This piece reflects on 50 years since Portugalโ€™s 1974 Carnation Revolution, seen as a trigger for the โ€œthird wave of democratization,โ€ a global trend that transformed many dictatorships into democr...

Open Access:
-110 initially nondemocratic countries of the third wave from 1970 to 2024 - 105 episodes of autocratization followed in 75=60 (55 %) of these 110 countries are democracies by 2024, but 50 never became democracies or have reverted back to autocracy.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

12.02.2026 06:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
First page of V-Dem Institute Policy Brief Number 43, showing key insights and policy recommendations.

First page of V-Dem Institute Policy Brief Number 43, showing key insights and policy recommendations.

Altruistic motivations aside, looking at purely self-interested motives of donors, is there still a rationale for supporting democracy abroad?
YES, says a new #PolicyBrief from V-Dem Institute:
Democracy Aid: Whatโ€™s in it for Donor Countries? v-dem.net/media/public...
๐Ÿ‘‡ 1(3) #Polisky #SocialScience

11.02.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

My latest - some interesting insights from new survey data from ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ

27.01.2026 17:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Opening the Black Box of EU Digital Sovereignty: A Macroโ€Level Analysis of the Concept's Development Digital sovereignty has emerged as a central organizing principle in European Union governance, yet systematic understanding of its conceptual evolution remains limited. This article provides the fir....

Digital sovereignty is a strategically flexible concept, and if you are interested in its development and evolution, check our new article in @govjournal.bsky.social: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

1/8

22.01.2026 07:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿฅ‰โ€œConceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backslidingโ€.
Working Paper 140 from 2023 is the third most viewed (4,080 times). v-dem.net/media/public...

@chknutsen.bsky.social @kailmarkvart.bsky.social @silindberg.bsky.social โ€ช@medzihorsky.bsky.social
@danpemstein.com
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27.01.2026 15:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Every social theory undergirding Trumpism has been broken on the steel of Minnesotan resolve. The multiracial community in Minneapolis was supposed to shatter. It did not. It held until Bovino was forced out of the Twin Cities with his long coat between his legs.

The secret fear of the morally depraved is that virtue is actually common, and that theyโ€™re the ones who are alone. In Minnesota, all of the ideological cornerstones of MAGA have been proved false at once. Minnesotans, not the armed thugs of ICE and the Border Patrol, are brave. Minnesotans have shown that their community is socially cohesiveโ€”because of its diversity and not in spite of it. Minnesotans have found and loved one another in a world atomized by social media, where empty men have tried to fill their lonely soul with lies about their own inherent superiority. Minnesotans have preserved everything worthwhile about โ€œWestern civilization,โ€ while armed brutes try to tear it down by force.

Every social theory undergirding Trumpism has been broken on the steel of Minnesotan resolve. The multiracial community in Minneapolis was supposed to shatter. It did not. It held until Bovino was forced out of the Twin Cities with his long coat between his legs. The secret fear of the morally depraved is that virtue is actually common, and that theyโ€™re the ones who are alone. In Minnesota, all of the ideological cornerstones of MAGA have been proved false at once. Minnesotans, not the armed thugs of ICE and the Border Patrol, are brave. Minnesotans have shown that their community is socially cohesiveโ€”because of its diversity and not in spite of it. Minnesotans have found and loved one another in a world atomized by social media, where empty men have tried to fill their lonely soul with lies about their own inherent superiority. Minnesotans have preserved everything worthwhile about โ€œWestern civilization,โ€ while armed brutes try to tear it down by force.

Last week in Minnesota, I watched ordinary people risk their lives to protect their neighbors. In the process, they not only won a significantโ€”though not finalโ€”victory against authoritarianism, they proved virtually every MAGA social theory wrong. (gift link) www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

27.01.2026 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12117    ๐Ÿ” 4027    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 266    ๐Ÿ“Œ 435

@schumer.senate.gov & @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social would fail a basic org sociology course, which is a problem for all of us, not to mention the country.

Here's the deal:

1. ICE has a known organizational culture
2. That culture centers on violence, racism, personalistic loyalty, & impunity

1/

27.01.2026 14:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Scott Gehlbach - 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Call for papers We invite submissions to a workshop on the economic history and historical political economy of Eurasia. The workshop will take place at th...

Amid everything else, a brief note to announce the CFP for the 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Historical Political Economy of Eurasia.

If you are an economist, historian, or political scientist working on Imperial Russia or the USSR, please consider applying.

July 17โ€“18, Paris.

25.01.2026 18:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 16    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

Congratulations!

23.01.2026 11:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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In Venezuela, the US has removed a dictator, but shows little sign of building a democracy | USAPP While Maduro has been removed, Venezuela remains a dictatorship, and one that is unlikely to transition to a democracy without specific US interventions.

I wrote about what political science research suggests about democracy building in Venezuela after the way Nicolรกs Maduro was removed:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

We'll see what comes of Marรญa Corina Machado's meeting today with Trump-

15.01.2026 16:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

[2/3] In this paper I use a model to explain why propaganda can be obviously false and still work - even a clearly false claim can be effective not because it persuades, but because it undermines trust in all news.

09.01.2026 01:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ“ฃ New article
๐Ÿ‘ฅ @allansikk.bsky.social @sonagolder.bsky.social @ibenskasr.bsky.social @paulinasl.bsky.social
๐Ÿ‘‰ Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance
๐Ÿ“— Open access in Electoral Studies
๐Ÿ”— doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

08.01.2026 12:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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I don't think we should over index Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" comments & infer that he favors a great-power-spheres-of-influence world. He's not that consistent. A few months ago he claimed to have brokered an Armenia-Azerbaijan deal, cutting out Russia. 1/2

04.01.2026 16:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

With Maduro gone, Venezuela must decide on the status of his absence. According to the Venezuelan constitution the National Assembly can declare the presidency abandoned, but if it does new presidential elections must be held within thirty days (art 233). Donโ€™t expect such a declaration anytime soon

04.01.2026 00:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Putin did full scale invasion and presented as special military operation, Trump has done special military operation and presented as if it was full scale invasion. Both seem deluded.

03.01.2026 22:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Upward and onward to 2026.

31.12.2025 16:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Regions Calling: 2025 Wrapped - The Moscow Times Merry Christmas and welcome to Regions Calling, a newsletter by The Moscow Times shedding light on life beyond the Russian capital.ย  For this final newsletter of the year, we asked our special corresp...

Resistance in Altai, environmental protests in Bashkortostan and the shadowy influence of an occult healer espousing reptilian conspiracy theories.

In the final Regions Calling newsletter of 2025, we wrap up the year in Russia's regions:

26.12.2025 11:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1