Kyle Marquardt

Kyle Marquardt

@kailmarkvart.bsky.social

Professor, @sampol.bsky.social; Project Manager, @vdeminstitute.bsky.social; Iowan; klmarquardt.com

972 Followers 920 Following 120 Posts Joined Sep 2023
39 minutes ago
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💡 When does a Country decline on the V-Dem Democracy Indices?

Watch the video or read in the thread to find out!

#PoliSky #PoliSciSky #PolDataSky #Acedemia #PoliticalScience #Democracy #DemocraticBacksliding
#VDemMethodology #VDemDataset
@vdemamlat.bsky.social

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2 days ago
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No. 005: The Parliamentary Elections of 2025 II This issue of the Moldovan Analytical Digest covers topics related to the parliamentary elections of September 2025. The first contribution, a paper by Sergiu Lipcean, delves into campaign financing r...

In the new issue of MAD css.ethz.ch/en/publicati..., I have a brief analysis of campaign financing in Moldova's 2025 parliamentary elections, looking at broad patterns of income and spending, including a very superficial analysis of the relationship between campaign spending and electoral returns.

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2 days ago
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💡What does V-Dem mean by 'Liberal Democracy'?
The liberal principle of democracy emphasizes the importance of protecting individual and minority rights against a potential “tyranny of the majority” and state repression.
Watch the video or see the thread below to find out more 👇
#Polisky #PolDataSky

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2 days ago
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One of the things AI has done for me is to confirm my suspicion that a large proportion of people in academia really don’t like being in academia.

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3 days ago
Front pages of V-Dem Institute Democracy Reports stacked on top of each other, with the top one showing the text "Democracy Report 2026: Out March 17" on the front page.

📢 V-Dem dataset version 16, updated with data for 2025, and the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026 will be released on March 17!
Make sure to follow us so you don't miss the announcement.

@vdemamlat.bsky.social
#Polisky #PoliSciSky #PoliticalScience #PoliticalScienceData #AcademicSky #VDemData

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3 days ago
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Just back from an incredible two days at the NYU CESS Experimental Political Science conference! 🎓

Happy to share that my poster, "Do Wartime Casualties Affect Support for the Autocrat? Evidence from Russia," won the Rebecca Morton Poster Prize !

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1 week ago
Flag of University of Gothenburg, hanging from the wall of the Department of Political Science building. Added text: We're Hiring! Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Cross-National Survey Methodology in Political Science. Combined position at V-Dem Institute and Governance and Local Development Institute.

📢 We are hiring: Combined Postdoc position at V-Dem Institute and GLD!
Applications are open for a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Cross-National Survey Methodology in Political Science.

Application: web103.reachmee.com/ext/I005/103...

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#Polisky #PoliSciSky #PoliticalScienceJobs #PostDoc

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1 week ago
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💡 How does V-Dem assess the levels of democracy in a country?
Watch the video or read the thread below to find out!
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#VDemMethodology #VDemData #Polisky #PolDataSky #SocialScienceData #PoliSciSky

@vdemamlat.bsky.social @digitalsocietyproject.org

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1 week ago

Every time I read a “x LLM is better at doing my job than I am” article, it turns out the person writing the piece is at best 50th percentile for their job. My theory is these people are trying to position themselves as AI pros because they know they’re going to get fired soon

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-There is no clear domestic consensus or authorization of force from Congress.

-There is no international consensus or authorization (e.g., via Security Council vote).

-There is no clear strategic rationale. (Not clear that stated purpose holds up to scrutiny, especially imminent threat).

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1 week ago
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An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War People will die and nothing will be accomplished

My thoughts

open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...

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1 week ago

I’m not watching that video st 3am but I don’t need to see it know this is a grave violation of US and international law. From my area of study I can tell you that it’s easy to think the UN Charter doesn’t mean much, but we want to live in a world that values its prohibition on aggressive warfare

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Weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian-led CSTO forces intervened in Kazakhstan’s January 2022 Qandy Qantar protests at the government’s request. Many observers predicted this intervention would deepen Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia, leading to support for Moscow’s invasion. Yet Kazakhstan’s subsequent actions defied these expectations. This study examines how the Kazakhstani government strategically framed and managed domestic unrest within a shifting geopolitical context, from initially emphasizing foreign threats to justify CSTO intervention to later reframing reforms as necessary for protecting sovereignty amid global upheaval. Through analysis of evolving state narratives and policy decisions, we demonstrate how great power-centric analysis overlooks the sophisticated ways states navigate asymmetric relationships. This case illustrates the importance of examining how smaller states in asymmetric relationships strategically manage both domestic and international pressures to advance their interests.

Recently published:

Elite Narratives and State Response to Kazakhstan’s Qandy Qantar Protests
by Hannah S. Chapman and Raushan Zhandayeva

online.ucpress.edu/cpcs/article...

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2 weeks ago

say that to Boxer from Animal Farm’s face I dare you

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Putin started a war against Ukraine to force it into the sphere of influence Russia's been desperate to create since the USSR's collapse. As a result, modern Ukraine has never been more hostile to Russia and there's no chance of it becoming part of a sphere of Russian influence.

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2 weeks ago

Putin has failed in Ukraine, thanks to the incredible bravery and resilience of Ukrainians. He is currently winning in the US. Whether he succeeds in the rest of Europe is up to us.

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2 weeks ago
Picture of new V-Dem Institute director Steven Wilson, with the quote "As new incoming director, my first priority is to keep doing what V-Dem has been doing successfully for nearly two decades: measure the different dimensions of democracy with the highest scientific rigor. I also bring with me my own research interest in digital politics and cybersecurity, in relation to democracy".

📣 We welcome Steven Wilson as Associate Professor at the Dept. of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg and new V-Dem Institute Director.
We asked Steven a few questions about his new role, his priorities for V-Dem, and his research interest: v-dem.net/news/new-v-d...
More below 👇
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2 weeks ago

February 21 is International Mother Language Day, a day created to promote linguistic and cultural diversity as well as multilingualism. In honor of the day, let’s take a look back at some of the language issues we’ve covered in our Regions Calling newsletter.

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1 month ago
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Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (295112) | University of Oslo Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (295112), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, March 16, 2026

📣CfA for a Postdoctoral Fellow Position in political science (3-4 years) as part of the ERC project “Waging of War” (WOW) - PI Scott Gates. The application deadline is March 16th, 2026.
www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

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1 month ago
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ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (294884) | NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology Job title: ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (294884), Employer: NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Deadline: Wednesday, April 29, 2026

We have a vacant position as Associate Professor in Political Science (International Relations). Deadline April 29. Please apply or distribute. www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

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1 month ago
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Fifty years of the third wave(s): from democratization to autocratization This piece reflects on 50 years since Portugal’s 1974 Carnation Revolution, seen as a trigger for the “third wave of democratization,” a global trend that transformed many dictatorships into democr...

Open Access:
-110 initially nondemocratic countries of the third wave from 1970 to 2024 - 105 episodes of autocratization followed in 75=60 (55 %) of these 110 countries are democracies by 2024, but 50 never became democracies or have reverted back to autocracy.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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1 month ago
First page of V-Dem Institute Policy Brief Number 43, showing key insights and policy recommendations.

Altruistic motivations aside, looking at purely self-interested motives of donors, is there still a rationale for supporting democracy abroad?
YES, says a new #PolicyBrief from V-Dem Institute:
Democracy Aid: What’s in it for Donor Countries? v-dem.net/media/public...
👇 1(3) #Polisky #SocialScience

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1 month ago

My latest - some interesting insights from new survey data from 🇰🇿

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1 month ago
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Opening the Black Box of EU Digital Sovereignty: A Macro‐Level Analysis of the Concept's Development Digital sovereignty has emerged as a central organizing principle in European Union governance, yet systematic understanding of its conceptual evolution remains limited. This article provides the fir....

Digital sovereignty is a strategically flexible concept, and if you are interested in its development and evolution, check our new article in @govjournal.bsky.social: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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1 month ago

🥉“Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding”.
Working Paper 140 from 2023 is the third most viewed (4,080 times). v-dem.net/media/public...

@chknutsen.bsky.social @kailmarkvart.bsky.social @silindberg.bsky.social ‪@medzihorsky.bsky.social
@danpemstein.com
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1 month ago
Every social theory undergirding Trumpism has been broken on the steel of Minnesotan resolve. The multiracial community in Minneapolis was supposed to shatter. It did not. It held until Bovino was forced out of the Twin Cities with his long coat between his legs.

The secret fear of the morally depraved is that virtue is actually common, and that they’re the ones who are alone. In Minnesota, all of the ideological cornerstones of MAGA have been proved false at once. Minnesotans, not the armed thugs of ICE and the Border Patrol, are brave. Minnesotans have shown that their community is socially cohesive—because of its diversity and not in spite of it. Minnesotans have found and loved one another in a world atomized by social media, where empty men have tried to fill their lonely soul with lies about their own inherent superiority. Minnesotans have preserved everything worthwhile about “Western civilization,” while armed brutes try to tear it down by force.

Last week in Minnesota, I watched ordinary people risk their lives to protect their neighbors. In the process, they not only won a significant—though not final—victory against authoritarianism, they proved virtually every MAGA social theory wrong. (gift link) www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

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1 month ago

@schumer.senate.gov & @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social would fail a basic org sociology course, which is a problem for all of us, not to mention the country.

Here's the deal:

1. ICE has a known organizational culture
2. That culture centers on violence, racism, personalistic loyalty, & impunity

1/

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1 month ago
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Scott Gehlbach - 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Call for papers We invite submissions to a workshop on the economic history and historical political economy of Eurasia. The workshop will take place at th...

Amid everything else, a brief note to announce the CFP for the 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Historical Political Economy of Eurasia.

If you are an economist, historian, or political scientist working on Imperial Russia or the USSR, please consider applying.

July 17–18, Paris.

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1 month ago

Congratulations!

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