Beth Stanton

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 1bp-4bp with curve flatter. Quarterly refunding auctions begin with $58b 3Y at 1pm. WI yield near 3.55% is lower than 3Y auction results since September. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

Whatever the reason, those bonds trade with a yield of about 4.12%. A market-wide increase in yields before the auction that raised the probability of an unscheduled reopening should erode that scarcity value. /END

As for the existing 30Y bonds, the expectation is they'd lose scarcity value. It may be that because they were the first ones in five years, pent-up demand caused a chunk of the issue to go into escrow accounts, driving up the value of the rest. 10/

An issue of that size is unlikely ever to command "special" rates in repo, meaning that the cost of financing a long position would stay near the general rate and not go lower. 9/

First, the total size of the issue would increase. It's scheduled to be $120b ($45b new issue plus two $39b reopenings in March and April). Merging it with the old 30Y would add $26b, and the Fed is expected to take an additional $12b to replace its maturing Treasuries. 8/

If it were to happen, though, there would be a couple of implications. 7/

At the moment, an unscheduled reopening looks unlikely, because the auction yield would need to be in the 4.500%-4.624% range, and it's indicated around 4.21%. Even with the January jobs report being released several hours before the auction, that's a tall order. 6/

There are no 30Y bonds maturing between 2031 and 2036, giving 10Y debt sold between 2021 and 2026 unique maturity dates. 5/

But there hasn't been an unscheduled reopening of a 10Y in at least a decade. And for the last 5 years, there's been no possibility of one, because the US stopped selling 30Y bonds in 2001 until 2006. 4/

This happens regularly, especially for 5Y notes, which have maturity dates in common with 7Y notes sold two years earlier. 3/

An unscheduled reopening happens when a Treasury security is sold that matures on the same date as an existing one & is assigned (via the auction result) the same coupon rate. Rather than getting its own CUSIP number, the new debt gets merged with the existing debt. 2/

Let's talk about the Treasury 10Y new-issue auction ahead on Wednesday -- a possible unscheduled reopening. 1/

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper, paced by UK gilts. New-issue auctions ahead this week: $58b 3Y Tuesday, $42b 10Y Wednesday (a possible unscheduled reopening of a 2006-issued 30Y, more on which later), $25b 30Y Thursday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-4bp following market's biggest gain since Oct on Thurs. But they gapped lower at the Asia open, 2Y to 3.42%, lowest since Oct. 17. New-issue auctions ahead next week: $58b 3Y Tues, $42b 10Y Weds, $25b 30Y Thurs.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields edging lower (2Y & 5Y to lowest levels since Mon) as crypto rout hits stock futures & UK bonds rally after BOE's split decision to hold rates (minority favored a cut). ECB up next, no change expected. Buyback of up to $2b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

Woe is @mtametronorth.bsky.social & North End Access customers, to wit:

*Closed 48th St entrance
*Loss of escalator service from upper level corridor to 47th St
*Loss of east side elevator, escalator & stairs (!) to lower level
*Disastrous new platforming protocol distancing riders from exits

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed. Treasury announces next week's auction sizes & projects Feb-April pattern at 8:30am, with only April 5Y TIPS new issue seen (by minority) as possibly growing (by $1b to $27b). Buyback of up to $4b in 1M-2Y sector closes at 2pm.

Dealers on Watch for Any Bessent Debt-Sale Move to Temper Yields Bond market participants widely see the US Treasury refraining from any major shift in debt-issuance plans in a key statement Wednesday, though the Trump administration’s aggressive financial maneuver...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed after 10Y & 30Y touched highest levels in more than a week. Ahead this week: Treasury projects coupon auction sizes for Feb-April on Wednesday, with only April 5Y TIPS new issue seen (by minority) as possibly growing (by $1b to $27b).

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session lows, amid ongoing volatility in commodities. $226b coupon settlement ($86b net). Jan index return -0.09%. Ahead this week: Treasury projects coupon auction sizes for Feb-April on Wednesday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve steeper after Warsh named Fed chair nominee. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to increase duration by estimated 0.05yr. Ahead next week: Treasury projects coupon auction sizes for Feb-April on Wednesday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed, off session highs, with curve steeper. $44b 7Y auction at 1pm is last coupon sale of the financing quarter, with Feb-April plans TBA Feb. 4 & 3Y expected Feb. 10. WI yield near 4.04% exceeds 7Y auction results since July.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs. Contracts for FOMC decisions are priced for no rate change at 2pm, 25bp cut by July & probably another by year-end. Ahead: $44b 7Y auction Thurs, month-end index rebalancing Fri (0.05yr duration increase estimated).

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed, curve steeper. $70b 5Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 3.84%, higher than results since July. Buyback of up to $750m of 1Y-10Y TIPS closes at 2pm. Friday's month-end index rebalancing to extend its duration by estimated 0.05yr.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by less than 2bp, all but 2Y at lowest levels in a week, with USD extending Friday's slide. This week's auctions begin a day early (skipping Weds for FOMC) with $69b 2Y at 1pm. WI yield near 3.60% exceeds 2Y auction results since August.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by less than 2bp, 10Y & 30Y at weekly lows. Feb options expire. Auctions ahead next week (accelerated to keep Weds clear for FOMC): $69b 2Y Mon, $70b 5Y Tues, $44b 7Y Thurs. (There's precedent for rescheduling for impending bad weather tho.)

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed. $21b 10Y TIPS new issue auction at 1pm has WI yield near 1.92% (~6bp higher than spot). Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y projected. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed inside Tuesday's selloff ranges amid JGB partial recovery. Curve steeper. $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm. WI yield near 4.88% exceeds 20Y auction results since July. Buyback of up to $4b in 2Y-3Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-8bp, off session highs including highest 5Y since August, 10Y & 30Y since early Sept, with curve steeper, amid violent selloff in JGBs and stocks down globally. Ahead this week: $13b 20y reopening (2nd) Weds & $21b 10Y TIPS new issue Thurs.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields edging higher, 2Y & 5Y highest since Dec. 10 (FOMC day). Treasury releases primary dealer survey questions for February refunding at noon. Ahead next week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Wednesday & $21b 10Y TIPS new issue Thursday.