Jessica Riedl

The problem with savaging our democratic insitutions - "Elections are rigged," "CBO scores are lies," "Govt data is fake," "The Fed is corrupt," "Presidents are all-powerful" - is that people believe it.

Then they try to destroy those vital institutions and go banana republic.

Trump just ensured that we should not trust any government data coming out of his administration. Why should we trust data from agencies in which the director's job depends on altering any bad economic news?

Any Republicans with a spine need to speak out.

Trump firing the BLS director for a bad jobs report - days after demanding the Smithsonian remove him from the list of impeached presidents - is banana republic stuff.

If a Democrat pulled these stunts, Republicans would be setting themselves on fire outside the White House.

Yes, the soaring debt is a serious problem that requires a serious solution. But tariffs are among the least effective tax increases because they produce more economic-damage-per-dollar-raised than most other taxes. There are better ways. (/F)

Moreover, trade wars harm economic growth, which in turn reduces income, payroll, & corporate tax revenues.

And much of the net tariff revenues that do survive will likely once again bail out industries (like agriculture) hit by foreign retaliation. Leaving perhaps $800B/decade.

Tariff revenues have jumped by $20 billion per month, which projects to $240 billion over the decade and $2.4 trillion over the decade. However, imports are likely to decline over time, which means declining tariff revenue.

Opinion | Tariffs will pay for tax cuts? The White House can’t be serious. Trump officials say trillions of dollars in tariff revenue will pay for their tax cuts. Don’t hold your breath.

NEW from me. In today's Washington Post, I show that the Trump White House's promise of $6 to $7 trillion in ten-year tariff revenue is fantasyland math.

Tariffs may offset just 3% of ten-year deficits (or 1/6 of the new tax cuts) with lots of economic pain.🧵
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Here's a crazy idea. Instead of using some debt-ridden gimmick to address the pain of the tariffs, why not just repeal the tariffs?

So a government drowning in trillion-dollar deficits would borrow $150 billion more at 4.5% interest rates that taxpayers will be paying forever, in order to compensate us for higher tariff prices that they deny are actually happening. Makes sense.

Jessica Riedl Conservative economist Jessica Riedl discusses the impact of Trump’s tariffs and trade deals, the cost of his tax cuts, and potential entitlement reforms. She assesses the Republican Party’s shift tow...

Here's the same video from the Firing Line website, complete with transcript. Enjoy! www.pbs.org/wnet/firing-...

YouTube video by Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS Jessica Riedl | Full Episode 7.25.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS

For those interested who may have missed it or just seen clips - my full interview on PBS @firinglineshow.bsky.social is posted below.

I address the new tax cuts, soaring debt, DOGE, Social Security, Medicare, tariffs, inflation, and firing Jerome Powell. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHTN...

"If businesses are going to invest in long-term factories, they need predictability and consistency out of Washington," says Manhattan Institute senior fellow @jessicabriedl.bsky.social.

"Not a president turning the tariff dials every five minutes."

Follow on Apple: bit.ly/4lPez7n

Is America careening toward a debt crisis?

Conservative economist @jessicabriedl.bsky.social talks about how we got here--and how to fix it.

Don't miss our new interview airing on @pbs.org this weekend on Firing Line.

bit.ly/4feltkc

Tonight - and again over the weekend (and online) - you can catch PBS Firing Line and my 30-minute interview discussing the tax cuts, the debt, tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve.

"Today's Republicans have seemingly given up on conservative economics."

Manhattan Institute senior fellow @jessicabriedl.bsky.social discusses tariffs and trade deals, Trump's #BigBeautifulBill, and the threat of rising debt.

FRIDAY @pbs.org

Local listings: to.pbs.org/39hI6Tf

No sentient human could possibly believe that Trump wanting to fire Powell really has anything at all to do with some explainable building cost overruns that Powell has little to do with - and that roughly equal the 4-year projected cost of Trump's taxpayer-funded golf outings

YouTube video by Open to Debate Two Conservatives Debate: Is the Big, Beautiful Bill a Disaster?

Should economic conservatives oppose the new tax cut law?
A 60-minute debate hosted by OpentoDebate.Org.

Jessica Riedl of the Manhattan Institute against the bill.
vs.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Heritage Foundation for the bill.

Watch below:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk-d...

Fun fact: Not only did Diana and I each once work at each other's current employer, but she helped bring me to MI in 2017 and was my initial director.

So while we disagree on the tax bill, I have great respect for her work.

YouTube video by Open to Debate Two Conservatives Debate: Is the Big, Beautiful Bill a Disaster?

Should economic conservatives oppose the new tax cut law?
A 60-minute debate hosted by OpentoDebate.Org.

Jessica Riedl of the Manhattan Institute against the bill.
vs.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Heritage Foundation for the bill.

Watch below:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk-d...

Of course, the gatekeeper lecturing transgender people on what we can say and believe.

I didn't come out as transgender to do what people like you tell me. I did it to be myself.

I ended up unplugging from all social media for two weeks, and took a July 4th trip with my family to reset.

I don't think the post above will change any minds about anti-LGBT harassment, but I felt better writing and posting it. Now back, to economic policy...

When the Online Mob Came After Me—and My Kids A Response to an Online Harassment and Doxing Campaign

Recently, I was subject to an aggressive harassment & slander campaign that began on Twitter, spilled over to major radio shows & podcasts, and led to a major right-wing website doxing my kids. The death threats were a cherry on top.
www.jessicariedl.blog/p/when-the-o...

It’s … curious … how so many people will assert that so many things are biologically or genetically determined or influenced—but just not this one thing …

🧵 by @jessicabriedl.bsky.social:

So glad we're finally putting a stop to the "weaponization" of government institutions against political opponents.

Opinion | Republicans, quit blaming the CBO for those big, ugly numbers The Congressional Budget Office is being assailed for stating facts about the GOP’s tax bill.

"You can spin your political base, but you cannot spin the economy or the bond market," @jessicabriedl.bsky.social writes. wapo.st/4nl6s3z

Republicans control the govt. They can bypass Congressional rules, and they can spin the cost.

But the deficit still soars, interest costs still leap, and economic growth still weakens. As Biden learned, you can't spin economic reality. (/F)

Congress' campaign against CBO is laying the groundwork to disregard the official tax score and write in that extending the TCJA is free.

This loophole would allow them to make the TCJA permanent by evading the prohibition on reconciliation bills expanding long-term deficits.

Republicans claim that CBO also erroneously scored tax cuts between the 1930s and 1960s.

Which is impossible, because CBO did not even exist until 1974. Oh, and those 1930s tax cuts occurred in the 1920s.

Republicans claim the CBO missed the huge economic boom caused by the 2017 TCJA.

In reality, CBO's revenue estimates after that tax bill proved an astounding 99.5% accurate up until the pandemic. And the small error was from being too rosy to Republicans.

Opinion | Republicans, quit blaming the CBO for those big, ugly numbers The Congressional Budget Office is being assailed for stating facts about the GOP’s tax bill.

NEW from me. In the @washingtonpost.com, I take Republicans to task for attacking the CBO and the score of its tax bill.

If they want a dynamic score showing huge economic growth effects, they should write a better bill. 🧵 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...