zachwick

Performance through 41 bets from a recency-weighted Bayesian model for pitcher K's. Not too shabby for a first attempt at modeling this market, but we'll see how it continues to hold up over the next few weeks.

Performance: app.btrbet.app/community/c...
Code: github.com/btrbet/Models

Continuing to experiment with this recency-weighted Bayesian model for pitcher K's. So far, it's down 1.44% after 41 bets. I'm going to keep trying it out until I've placed >= 100 bets with it before deciding what refinements it might need.

Today's bets: app.btrbet.app/community/c...

GitHub - btrbet/Models: A collection of example betting models A collection of example betting models. Contribute to btrbet/Models development by creating an account on GitHub.

Took a few days off from testing the new recency-weighted Bayesian pitcher K's model to have a baby, but back to testing as he sleeps on me.

Code: github.com/btrbet/Models
Bets: app.btrbet.app/community/c...

GitHub - btrbet/Models: A collection of example betting models A collection of example betting models. Contribute to btrbet/Models development by creating an account on GitHub.

Testing a new recency-weighted Bayesian model for pitcher K's. Check the code: github.com/btrbet/Models and bets: app.btrbet.app/community/c.... Thanks to @btrbetapp for bet tagging and Recaps for performance evaluation. #MLB #Betting #Analytics

Shane Baz is averaging 0.926 K/IP and 5.0 K/GP.

Over his last five games (going back to 2025-05-18), he's averaging 0.717 K/IP and 3.8 K/GP.

See my bet at app.btrbet.app/community/c...

Griffin Canning is averaging 0.952 K/IP and 4.692 K/GP.

Over his last five games (going back to 2025-05-17), he's averaging 1.098 K/IP and 3.8 K/GP.

See my bet at app.btrbet.app/community/c...

I started building @btrbet.bsky.social because I wanted two things:
1. A way to track all of my bets that wasn't a spreadsheet.
2. A way to line shop that was integrated into my betting process.

I'm very proud that BtrBet does both and more, for every bettor, for free.

I think he also gets credited with receiving yards, but not a catch however. What a strange rule edge case.

Dogfooding your product is exciting in two ways: you build a better product through user empathy and get to experience success using the product just like your users do.

Apropos, it has been a great NCAAMB season so far!

app.btrbet.app/community/cm...

Reader from Readwise is pretty good, especially if you already use Readwise for collecting your marginalia.