Brynn Tannehill

Mike beat me to it, but I've gone a step further with the Byline times: they've already put most of the pieces in place to nullify or overturn the 2028 election.

Trump looks strong so long as he's bombing with near impunity, but the Iranians would dearly love to heap an indignity on him or the US where bombing isn't enough to reclaim honor.

Anyway, that's something I've been thinking about today. This war of choice did not make us safer.

Wargaming it: if they do something so heinous that the only remedy is invasion or an infinitely long bombing campaign, congratulations, they just won the war because Trump won't survive a. doing something or b. doing nothing

example: Massacring a kindergarten in the US or publicly executing a POW

Iran knows the US has no desire to send ground troops. They also know that this is a cost imposing conflict on the US: the munitions US are using are both expensive, and VERY finite. They also know that Trump is unpopular. This gives them carte blanche to commit an atrocity that spurs real outrage.

LOL! I had the exact same thought.

Archduke Ferdinand would beg to differ.

They spent billions on regime change in Venezuela and left the Maduro's head of torture in charge.

They are now spending billions on regime change in Iran, knowing the most likely outcome will be harder line leadership.

We do not have serious people running our country.

Iran got its face eaten by leopards.

"Underpants goming". Perfect analogy. Trump admon didn't think this through, they're just bombing and hoping it creates a stable democracy friendly to the US.

Perfect analogy. Trump admon didn't think this through, they're just bombing and hoping it creates a stable democracy friendly to the US.

Post See new posts Conversation Laura Rozen @lrozen · 2h From US admin official background briefing recording listening to, seriously question if US negotiators understood what Iranians were proposing. One official keeps saying acronym for “IAEA” wrong. They seem astonished Iran would not agree to the US supplying them nuclear fuel Laura Rozen @lrozen · 2h They took as suspicious proposals that Iran saw as concessionary. Laura Rozen @lrozen · 2h Explains why Oman FM tried to come to DC to explain what US negotiators may not have fully understood Laura Rozen @lrozen Am not saying what Iran proposed would have been enough, I dont know, but it seems US negotiators did not have the expert guidance to understand it correctly

On top of all the reporting that this war of aggression was planned well in advance, it seems that the reporting also indicates that the US political leadership are quite literally too stupid to understand basic diplomacy. I mean literally not smart enough.

The negotiations were not in good faith. The US came in with maximalist demands, sent unqualified negotiators who didn't understand the concessions the Iranians were offering, and always planned to use the armada of aircraft they assembled.

Negro Heroes #1 (1947). The cover features George Washington Carver, Charles French, and Matthew Henson.

Negro Heroes #2 (1948). The cover features Jackie Robinson.

Published in 1947, this was the first comic book series entirely devoted to showing real life Black Americans in a positive light. The stories were reprinted from various issues of True Comics, Real Heroes, & Calling All Girls. #BlackHistoryMonth

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would...

This matches my assessment: Khameini is likely to be replaced by younger, more hardline elements. I don't think Iranians are going to be free of the regime, and Trump's stated war aims are doomed from the start. I'm sure he'll just blame it on Iranians for not wanting freedom enough.

For all the talk of "trans terrorism", there's zero discussion of all the trans people who chose to serve in the military, do stuff like this, fight fires, or fly MEDEVAC helicopters.

If the Trump regime decides it will not leave power, including by rigging elections or declaring martial law, they are putting things in place to ensure that nothing on heaven or earth can remove them from power.

Nothing. Not even a nuclear war.

Ayyway, that's why I'm not in the US.

I believe the Iranian regime will likely survive this, even if Khameini is dead. They're 100% willing to kill as many of their own countrymen as necessary to stay in power. Not even a full air campaign will dislodge them.

Americans should learn from this in the 2026/2028 election.

The practical upshot of this, if true, is that it allows the Trump administration to claim they have achieved regime change, call it a day, and go home if the campaign fails to produce other desired results (i.e. abandoning nuclear program, democratic regime change).

I don't foresee many, if any US casualties. The biggest danger was in the opening hours to US 5th Fleet HQ, and Qatar airbase. Iran appears to have thrown their best punch, and scored zero hits on US military installations. Now they just have to rope-a-dope. 3/n

The problem with trying to destroy Iran's nuclear program is that it's tough to know if you got all of it, or even "enough".

Honestly, all Iran has to do is hunker down, prevent regime change, and the Khameini regime "wins", because the US won't invade. 2/n

Whenever a war starts, it's important to ask what the terminating conditions are. I see three plausible:

1. Regime change happens internally and a friendlier government installed

2. Iran offer Trump massive bribes in oil revenue

3. Declaring victory and going home

1/n

As a trans person, I feel the opposite. Every day I wake up, read the news, and ask, "How the **** did I end up in 1934?"

What do you think the Maidan revolution was? Or the Romanian revolution was? Nah, once an authoritarian government that is willing to kill its people to stay in power is in place, you don't get to vote your way out. Or ask nicely for democracy to return.

Not an option if you're trans.

Kansas Secretly Spent Years Making a List of Trans Residents. Today, the State is Taking Their IDs. An investigation from Transitics has revealed that, under a Democratic governor, Kansas built a list of the state's trans people. Now, Republicans are weaponizing it to revoke their IDs.

They're making the lists.

JFC if it isn't clear enough, no one will protect you. Not Newsom. Not Mamdani. No one in the Democratic Party.

GTFO. While you still can.

transitics.substack.com/p/kansas-sec...

Guess What Madness Ensued in Canada After That Recent Shooting? None. Having moved to Canada recently from the U.S., I was braced for the worst after that recent mass shooting. Instead, what I saw shocked me.

I wrote about this exact thing as a new resident of Canada recently. You're right: it feels like the US, up until the system gets stress tested and then you realize that the US is not a functional democracy. newrepublic.com/article/2066...

If you're a trans person in Kansas who had your drivers license invalidated, you can absolutely trust @marisakabas.bsky.social to handle your story with care. I vouch for her 100%.

What happens when people in the US realize that their vote can no longer remove the party in power?

My guess: nothing. Just peaceful protests that the government couldn't care less about.

Then comes the real horror.

The title of the Article is "Arguing with 5 Bots in a Trenchcoat".

The journal article also points out that people on X are the most likely to be aware of a conspiracy theory, AND the most likely to believe it by a wide margin (though BlueSky users are just as likely to know OF conspiracy theories)