Anecdotally, yes.
Any number of possibilities, more than one of which could be true:
1. Missile depletion
2. Russian targeted ring
3. Iran is getting better at targeting
You forgot Lindsay Graham.
Neither Iran nor the US is interested in talking about a ceasefire, suggesting this is going in for the long haul. My analysis concurs. Bab al Mandeb could also be partially or fully closed soon if Houthis get involved as promised.
Trumpcession inbound.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Yeah, I fixed it in the follow on post. It was the SH-60R when I was flying 60Bs.
I caught that after I posted.
Trump, after instituting a completely transactional "America First" foreign policy, begs countries around the world to bail the US out of the mess it made for itself.
Remains to be seen if they have the capability.
Put the Strait of Hormuz on the blockchain.
by Andrew Yang
LOL. Yeah, no. The Iranians have no intention of backing down. They have the ability to make shipping difficult or impossible for months, and the instant the first sea mine hits the water it adds 1-2 months to clear the strait.
5. Their conclusions aren't obvious to most people who don't think about war a lot
6. Their "obvious" conclusions are both true, and something that this administration was too dumb to think about
7. Some of the issue is they have to seem neutral. They can't call Trump and Hegseth morons directly
I've got to disagree here on Petraeus and in particular Hertling.
1. What they're saying dovetails with some of my own analysis
2. Wargaming scenarios often is about reducing to simpler terms first
4. It's cable news, not a long form article, they have to dumb it down a bit
Somewhat. But, gunfire from aircraft is less accurate than from a helicopter. They also suffer from the same vulnerabilities as helicopters, and cannot be operated from the ship.
Small, fast, low freeboard USVs can be difficult to detect, difficult to hit with gunfire from ships, difficult to detonate or disable, etc... The best defense against them is MH-60R helicopters using Hellfire, but that exposes the helicopter to potential danger in the strait.
Iran has been deploying small boat USVs against shipping, similar to the ones used by Ukraine to sink or disable much of the Black Sea fleet. The US Navy is far better equipped to defend against these sorts of drones than the Russians because of the SH-60R helicopter, but its still risky AF.
What if we pretend Zootopia is in Canada?
What this tells me is they went in without either a theory of victory or terminal conditions, which is beyond stupid. FFS why am I out of a job as a defense analyst and these clowns running the show?
The money will go into a secret account in Qatar, never to be seen again.
www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-...
Digital artists, share your first digital art and year vs. now.
2000 vs. 2026
My guess: vertical insertion with Ospreys to seize key points (airports, ports, docks, beaches) followed by landing craft or C-130s. My guess is they'll seize Kharg airport with Ospreys at night, then bring in more troops with C-130s given that the field only has a 5,000 foot runway.
I am losing my fucking mind.
I can’t stand this much winning.
I believe the US will take Kharg island
1. Iran is still getting oil out of the Gulf, almost all of it out of Kharg
2. China is the primary beneficiary
3. Iran can continue to resist as long as it get its oil money
4. 5000 (a MEU) is about how many troops you'd need
One of my concerns is that if things go sideways or the US vertically escalates in Iran it could trigger a cascade of events leading to a massive humanitarian crisis. bylinetimes.com/2026/03/13/t...
"The optimists all died in the gas chambers. The pessimists got pools in Beverly Hills." - Billy Wilder
A trans population that underestimates their intentions, capabilities, or timelines will be helpless when the hammer falls. And it's coming FAST.
It's going to be a year or so before it begins in earnest, but almost all the pieces to a final solution to the transgender question are already in place.
If people aren't prepared for it, they're probably not going to make it.
Ok. Everything will be just fine.
"We don't want transgender people."
Saying the quiet part loud.
Anyway, make sure that you take care of any unfinished business you have with your trans friends. They're not going to be here much longer.
What the WH says: "All options are on the table regarding a draft."
What Gen Z hears: www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoAf...
They will move on to trans people within the next year.
