James Miraflor

Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity at University of Bristol on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity at University of Bristol, listed on FindAPhD.com

We're advertising a PhD position! 😎 Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

It's more like, conglomerates establish a bank, & once they do, odds are stacked in their favor. Every monetary injection via RRR cut (and maybe even every withdrawal via repo rate hike, though I'm yet to explore this), conglomerates benefit - over & above MSMEs & workers. BSP's fiat is their mana.

Subsidizing Bankers, Shortchanging Workers “… as Congress failed to raise the minimum wage by a couple of hundred pesos and facilitate a transfer of a measly ₱259 billion to close…

“… as Congress failed to raise the minimum wage by a couple of hundred pesos & facilitate a transfer of a measly ₱259 billion to close the ₱5 trillion wage-profit gap, the BSP has effectively subsidized capitalists to the tune of ₱300-400 billion.”

medium.com/@futilityfun...

Fitting a generalized mixed model with a gamma distribution log link and random slopes to reaction time data to arrive at precisely the same point estimate as the authors did by simply averaging and conducting a t-test:

CDC ends COVID vaccine recommendation for healthy kids and the pregnant. HHS cancelling Moderna contracts for developing vaccines vs. future flu pandemics. RFK, Jr. may ban US scientists from publishing. #EpiBluesky

On Building Git for Lawyers Over this past weekend, Twitter discovered the problem that I have dedicated the past four years of my life to solving. Why don't lawyers and other non-coders use git?

theredline.versionstory.com/p/on-buildin...

Why Lawyers Will Never Use Google Docs Last November, I published "On Building Git for Lawyers" about building Version Story, the first concurrent version control system for lawyers.

This is interesting theredline.versionstory.com/p/why-lawyer...

Workers don’t only hold jobs; they create them - every time they buy, save, discover, or create. So-called “financial strategy” is mere exploitation of signals by workers to workers.

Stancil and the leftists have been shouting the two parts of this sentence at each other for years now when they should just be shouting the name at the top to everyone else

Combining Straight‐Line and Map‐Based Distances to Investigate the Connection Between Proximity to Healthy Foods and Disease Healthy foods are essential for a healthy life, but accessing healthy food can be more challenging for some people than others. This disparity in food access may lead to disparities in well-being, po...

🆕 New week, new pub! @sarahlotspeich.bsky.social (Assistant Prof) published in Statistics in Medicine with @wakeforest.bsky.social colleagues @ashleymullan.bsky.social (MS alum, now PhDing @vanderbilt.edu), @lucystats.bsky.social (Assistant Prof), and Staci Hepler (Vice Chair/Associate Prof).

Flyer for International Social Epidemiology Webinar Series: Professor Naomi Priest from the Australian National University on 1st of May. Title: "My 'accidental' career as a social epidemiologist"

📢 Mark your calendars for our next webinar next week!

“My 'Accidental' Career as a Social Epidemiologist” featuring Professor Naomi Priest

📅 Thursday, May 1st, 2025
🕗 06:00 New York / 11:00 London / 20:00 Melbourne

👉 Register now at bit.ly/3YABrxB — and please share widely!

#SocialEpi #SDoH

that feel when you can’t reconcile the reality of historical contingency with the possibility of inductive inference

Safety and Immunogenicity of Poultry Vaccine for Protecting Critically Endangered Avian Species against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus, United States Vaccine for Protecting Avian Species against HPAIV

This is type of cool and quiet science that excites me. In 2023, #H5N1 hit California condors hard: >21 birds dead. Just ~560 remain globally. Researchers asked: could a poultry vaccine help? They ran a trial that might change wildlife conservation & save the species.🧪
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...

Peruvian Population Genomics: Unraveling the Genetic Landscape and Admixture Dynamics of Urban Populations https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.04.10.648256v1

My recommendations on economic growth and development

P.P.S. How much less? 100.08%/100.00016102385% = 0.99206508952. So the probability of being selected shrinks by 0.21% a year. By the end of 60 years your probability of being selected - little as it is - would have shrunk to 62% of the original (P = 0.00002173913). 11/10

P.S. Note that is an understatement. That the population growth rate in the PH is 0.8% a year, but the required sample size for a 2% margin will only grow by 0.00016102385% a year! That means as the pop'ln grows you have less & less chances of being selected per year. 10/10

So, if you get interviewed at least once in your entire electoral life, consider yourself the lucky one out of five Filipinos. Otherwise, that's just the consequence of statistics. 9/

So our formula gives us 1-(1-P)^9,360 = 0.18411386371.
That's roughly 18.5% - there is only less than 1 in 5 chances that you will be interviewed at least once for the rest of your electoral life, even if we assume there are 3 surveys a week. 8/

Do the same to compute the prob. of one being interviewed at least once in his entire life in all major surveys. Say there are at least 3 surveys per week from different firms. That's extreme. Say that one's electorally active life is 60 years. So that's 3x52x60=9,360 surveys. 7/

From here, we can get the probability that you were interviewed for at least one of the surveys. That is 1-(1-P)^192 = 0.00416525948, or 0.416525948% - less than half of a percent chance. 6/

What's the probability that you were not interviewed for at least once? To answer, we get the prob.that you are not interviewed in a survey. That's (1-P) = 0.99997826087. Now, we get the prob. that you are not interviewed in all 192 surveys. That's (1-P)^192 = 0.99583474052. 5/

Now, 2,500 / 115 million, gives you a probability P = 0.00002173913 of being selected. Suppose there's an average of 1 survey / quarter, & your active political life has spanned 30 years: you're 48 old, & you would have been qualified for a survey since 18. That's 192 surveys. 4/

For those curious, we can use the Yamane formula in this case: n = N / (1 + N * e^2). N is the population size, n is the sample size, and e is the level of precision (say 2%). So plugging in N = 115 million will give us n~2,500. 3/

Consider the case where there is just one survey firm in PH. For any survey, a sample of 2,500 is enough to get representative data for a popl'n of ~115 million people w/ more or less 2% margin of error. That's a consequence of sampling theory, assuming a normal distribution. 2/

We hear people saying that they haven't, for once in their lives, been interviewed for an electoral survey. This experience, of course, can lead one to cast doubt on the legitimacy of such surveys.

So, how likely is it for one to be interviewed? We can do that math on that. 1/

Mulder saying "Hey, you got to stay alive if you want to stick it to the government."

Mulder saying "If you die, you let them off the hook."

One of the implicit promises of fascistic misogyny is that stripping freedom from women will give men more freedom.

But it's a lie. Men aren't free in a patriarchal system. And in a sex-segregated patriarchal system, they spend more of their time around other men who seek to control them.