Hans Kristensen

I heard it was 20! More than anyone has ever imagined! Yuuuge!

Don’t give them any ideas. 😄

Sentinel ICBM industry PR video claims it will have “game-changing capabilities” youtu.be/OYVWY5dzv1I?... including new propulsion system in payload section to increase warhead accuracy. Already over budget, USAF claims it will be cheaper. www.airandspaceforces.com/sentinel-icb...

Not shedding any tears for brutal Iranian leadership. But talk about textbook distraction campaign: No imminent Iranian threat against US at level requiring attack, Trump’s ratings slump, Republicans facing tough midterm election, so let’s get some strongman action.

Elected with promises not start wars but stop them, that US shouldn’t be world’s policeman, and bragging he stopped 7 wars, Trump has started largest US war since Iraq war, with no authorization from Congress, no international coalition, to topple regime. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02...

Apart from the role of conventional strike in general, I find it hard to believe that two nuclear powers that have spent their entire nuclear careers on planning how to overcome Russian missile defenses suddenly won’t be able to.

Marco reports another Minuteman III ICBM test launch planned for early next month.

USAF is trying to replace Minuteman with Sentinel but is over budget and behind schedule. Mil said Minuteman couldn’t be life-extended but now has to operate it for another 15 years. fas.org/publication/...

NATO’s only nuclear-capable surface ship is visiting Sweden: French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is equipped to deliver nuclear ASMPA-R air-launched cruise missiles (but doesn’t carry them now). x.com/franceinswed... Last year France deployed jets from its nuclear base to northern Sweden.

Trump aides struggle with how to spend $500 billion more on military Some senior officials resisted the decision to approve the major military spending increase, sources say.

While the Trump regime slashed government agencies and foreign aid and fired tens of thousands of government employees, it vastly increased spending on the military. Now it’s struggling with how to actually spend it all. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

How to Respond to China's Alleged Nuclear Test There are no good or easy answers

I've started a new substack on nuclear issues while between positions (new gig starts on March 2). Here is my first piece on how to digest allegations that China conducted a nuclear test in 2020. Thoughts from the #nuclear and policy community welcome as always.

open.substack.com/pub/thinking...

Interesting discussion worth listening to. Hopefull it will be a focused and specific discussion.

Also worth checking Lora Saalman’s new @SIPRIorg study: AI in Chinese, Indian and US Nuclear Postures, Norms and Systems www.sipri.org/publications...

U.S. releases new details on alleged secret Chinese nuclear test At a event in Washington D.C., A U.S. official said a remote earthquake in 2020 was caused by a Chinese nuclear test.

Good report by @gbrumfiel.bsky.social on seismic signal allegedly caused by small Chinese nuclear test in 2022. US official said there’s “very little possibility” it was anything other than an explosion. NORSAR and CTBTO are less confident. www.npr.org/2026/02/17/n...

Trump Administration Erases the Government’s Power to Fight Climate Change

The Trump regime recklessly erases US regulation to limit pollution causing climate change. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/c... The irresponsible decision is a middle finger to global efforts to reduce warming of atmosphere, now increasing faster than ever. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Trump’s Director of Election Security Is an Election Denier

No matter how many times the 2020 election has been reaffirmed, Trump and his enablers have continued to spread lies about the result and election system. One of the worst is now director of “election security and integrity.” NYT article looks at their dirty work. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/u...

The Trump regime is planning to announce “the most significant deregulatory actions in history” to make it easier for industry to pollute the atmosphere and harder to fight climate change. apnews.com/article/trum...

Among the great mysteries in this universe is why any religious person can possibly have any confidence in Trump’s ethics. Is there any of the Ten Commandments he hasn’t violated?

New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Pete Hegseth’s Attack on Harvard The anger at the Ivy League is about status envy, not war-fighting.

Excellent article by @radiofreetom.bsky.social on hormone Hegseth’s announcement the Pentagon will cut all ties with Harvard and its programs. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Newly Unbound, Trump Weighs More Nuclear Arms and Underground Tests

The large nuclear powers are repeating the errors of the Cold War in boosting their arsenals in a dangerous action-reaction dynamic. Not known for intelligent thinking, the Trump regime signals intent to do its part. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/u...

AI Is Here to Replace Nuclear Treaties. Scared Yet? The last major nuclear arms treaty between the US and Russia just expired. Some experts believe a combination of satellite surveillance, AI, and human reviewers can take its place. Others, not so much...

My colleague @mattkorda.bsky.social in Wired discussing his recent study (with Igor Morić) - Inspections Without Inspectors fas.org/publication/... - about use of OSINT for arms control. www.wired.com/story/satell...

Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians “Just because I’m wearing the flag doesn’t mean I represent everything that’s going on in the U.S.,” says freestyle skier Hunter Hess.

The Winter Olympics are underway but some U.S. competitors find it complicated to represent the United States because of the despicable things the Trump regime is doing.

“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...

State Department will delete X posts from before Trump returned to office The policy change orders the removal of any post made by official State Department accounts on X before President Trump returned to office in 2025.

Trump regime’s latest effort to whitewash history and control narrative: all State department posts on X made before Trump took office in 2025 will be removed. That includes accounts for US embassies, missions, ambassadors, department bureaus, programs. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...

Pentagon says it's cutting ties with 'woke' Harvard, discontinuing military training, fellowships The Pentagon says it will cut ties with Harvard University, ending military training, fellowships and certificate programs.

Making military dumber: Pentagon cuts ties with Harvard University, ending all military training, fellowships and certificate programs. apnews.com/article/harv...

Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.

In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

6/ The US and international community must work to resolve this issue with China. But it would be an extraordinarily reckless decision if the Trump administration used this to resume US nuclear tests. The US does not need to test but to prevent others from doing so.

5/ Very low yield nuclear tests are unlikely to give China a military advantage. A 2012 NAS study suggests plausible technical gains could be related to codes, safety, and very low yield designs. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...

4/ Despite concern about China's efforts to conceal such tests, the US allegations suggest China has failed to do so and that the US Intelligence Community actually has considerable insight into Chinese activities.

3/ One explosion allegedly happened on 22 June 2020. The US treaty compliance reports from 2020 and 2021 did not provide details but expressed general concern.

2/ Detonations that produce a nuclear yield from the fission process would be a violation of China's obligations under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The international community must insist China provides transparency to resolve this issue; denial and obfuscation will not.

U.S. Statement at the Conference on Disarmament - U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Geneva

1/ The Trump administration's speech at the Conference on Disarmament accuses China of having conducted experiments to hide very low yield nuclear explosions and also made plans for bigger ones (less than 1 kiloton) not yet detonated. geneva.usmission.gov/2026/02/06/u...

7/7 - Blog about implications of New START expiring: fas.org/publication/...

NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...

More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...