@nukestrat.bsky.social
Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own. Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/
Unfortunate. After the fact images are important to verify damage, incidents, claims. Time delay seems arbitrary. Why 24 days? Why not 7 days, or 1 day.
Trump’s war against Iran is causing oil prices to rise, creating higher gas prices at home for his voters, stock market to slump to the dismay of his rich friends, and Russia to make more oil money to fund its war machine in Ukraine. If only we could have known? 🙄
Yes, turns out the ICBM test launch today only carried two RVs. The Mk12A can carry up to three. Normally they fly 1 or 3 warheads. Here’s the more detailed USAFGSC description: www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article...
Checking…yes, Poland is still a member of the NPT.
Just days after France offers to broaden nuke deterrent in support of Europe, Polish PM says “we will also seek to prepare Poland in the future for the most autonomous possible actions in this area.” euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/04/e...
The USAF test-launched a Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg into the Pacific. The missile carried three unarmed Mk12A reentry vehicles for the 335-kiloton W78 warhead. The MIRV test comes as US is considering increasing deployed warheads. www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/News/Article...
While waiting for Macron’s speech on French nuke role, and following uncertainty about US commitment to defend NATO, UK convene NATO officials to discuss the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe. www.gov.uk/government/n...
I am shocked! SHOCKED!!
White House claim of imminent Iranian threat undercut in Hill briefings
www.cnn.com/world/live-n...
I heard it was 20! More than anyone has ever imagined! Yuuuge!
Don’t give them any ideas. 😄
Sentinel ICBM industry PR video claims it will have “game-changing capabilities” youtu.be/OYVWY5dzv1I?... including new propulsion system in payload section to increase warhead accuracy. Already over budget, USAF claims it will be cheaper. www.airandspaceforces.com/sentinel-icb...
Not shedding any tears for brutal Iranian leadership. But talk about textbook distraction campaign: No imminent Iranian threat against US at level requiring attack, Trump’s ratings slump, Republicans facing tough midterm election, so let’s get some strongman action.
Elected with promises not start wars but stop them, that US shouldn’t be world’s policeman, and bragging he stopped 7 wars, Trump has started largest US war since Iraq war, with no authorization from Congress, no international coalition, to topple regime. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02...
Apart from the role of conventional strike in general, I find it hard to believe that two nuclear powers that have spent their entire nuclear careers on planning how to overcome Russian missile defenses suddenly won’t be able to.
Marco reports another Minuteman III ICBM test launch planned for early next month.
USAF is trying to replace Minuteman with Sentinel but is over budget and behind schedule. Mil said Minuteman couldn’t be life-extended but now has to operate it for another 15 years. fas.org/publication/...
NATO’s only nuclear-capable surface ship is visiting Sweden: French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is equipped to deliver nuclear ASMPA-R air-launched cruise missiles (but doesn’t carry them now). x.com/franceinswed... Last year France deployed jets from its nuclear base to northern Sweden.
While the Trump regime slashed government agencies and foreign aid and fired tens of thousands of government employees, it vastly increased spending on the military. Now it’s struggling with how to actually spend it all. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
I've started a new substack on nuclear issues while between positions (new gig starts on March 2). Here is my first piece on how to digest allegations that China conducted a nuclear test in 2020. Thoughts from the #nuclear and policy community welcome as always.
open.substack.com/pub/thinking...
Interesting discussion worth listening to. Hopefull it will be a focused and specific discussion.
Also worth checking Lora Saalman’s new @SIPRIorg study: AI in Chinese, Indian and US Nuclear Postures, Norms and Systems www.sipri.org/publications...
Good report by @gbrumfiel.bsky.social on seismic signal allegedly caused by small Chinese nuclear test in 2022. US official said there’s “very little possibility” it was anything other than an explosion. NORSAR and CTBTO are less confident. www.npr.org/2026/02/17/n...
The Trump regime recklessly erases US regulation to limit pollution causing climate change. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/c... The irresponsible decision is a middle finger to global efforts to reduce warming of atmosphere, now increasing faster than ever. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
No matter how many times the 2020 election has been reaffirmed, Trump and his enablers have continued to spread lies about the result and election system. One of the worst is now director of “election security and integrity.” NYT article looks at their dirty work. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/u...
The Trump regime is planning to announce “the most significant deregulatory actions in history” to make it easier for industry to pollute the atmosphere and harder to fight climate change. apnews.com/article/trum...
Among the great mysteries in this universe is why any religious person can possibly have any confidence in Trump’s ethics. Is there any of the Ten Commandments he hasn’t violated?
New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Excellent article by @radiofreetom.bsky.social on hormone Hegseth’s announcement the Pentagon will cut all ties with Harvard and its programs. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
The large nuclear powers are repeating the errors of the Cold War in boosting their arsenals in a dangerous action-reaction dynamic. Not known for intelligent thinking, the Trump regime signals intent to do its part. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/u...
My colleague @mattkorda.bsky.social in Wired discussing his recent study (with Igor Morić) - Inspections Without Inspectors fas.org/publication/... - about use of OSINT for arms control. www.wired.com/story/satell...
The Winter Olympics are underway but some U.S. competitors find it complicated to represent the United States because of the despicable things the Trump regime is doing.
“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...
Trump regime’s latest effort to whitewash history and control narrative: all State department posts on X made before Trump took office in 2025 will be removed. That includes accounts for US embassies, missions, ambassadors, department bureaus, programs. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...
Making military dumber: Pentagon cuts ties with Harvard University, ending all military training, fellowships and certificate programs. apnews.com/article/harv...
Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.
In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...