Jake Grumbach

The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand:

$678M raised through those spam tactics

$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.

$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)

The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

👀👀👀

Condolences

Wow that's exactly what Trump said!

His concern about whether late survey responses are MCAR, MAR, or MNAR is laudable

Some say Trump is destroying BLS because he says he doesn't like the "phony numbers." But Chamath knows the truth: Trump is just really mad that firms and households sometimes take too long to answer surveys, which has implications for measurement error, even attenuation bias if on a model's RHS

There were all sorts of problems in liberal institutions that demanded reform. But certain elite liberals struggled to distinguish the good faith critics and reformers from those who would burn the institutions down. Taken for a ride.

the voting rights act is, in its entirety, obviously constitutional under the 15th amendment, which gives congress broad and proactive authority to stop racial discrimination in voting. and you know it is obviously constitutional because roberts has had to invent entire new doctrines to gut it.

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

Generally speaking, do you consider saying that a person has "great genes" to be...? Politics (3509 US adults - August 1, 2025) Appropriate Inappropriate Not sure All 53% 15 % 31% Dem 44 24 32 Ind 50 14 36 Rep 67 9 24 YouGov What the world thinks today.yougov.com

Actress Sydney Sweeney was recently featured in an American Eagle ad campaign with the tagline "Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans." Do you think this ad campaign's wordplay is appropriate or inappropriate? Politics (3509 US adults - August 1, 2025) All Dem Ind Rep Appropriate 52% 46 49 64 Inappropriate 16 % 24 14 10 Not sure 32% 30 37 26 YouGov What the world thinks today.yougov.com

V Variety F @Variety •1d Vice President JD Vance trolls Democrats for being outraged over Sydney Sweeney's American Eagle jeans ads: "We're going to attack people as Nazis for thinking Sydney Sweeney is beautiful. Great strategy, guys." "It actually reveals something pretty interesting about the Dems, Show more 12:29 PM • 8/1/25 • 29K Views

The fact that very few Dems think the Sydney Sweeney jeans ad was offensive won’t stop journalists for falling for this kinda shit

Me three months ago:

That's right

If you think manipulating official statistics is a four-alarm fire, may I suggest you take a look at what’s happening with the 2030 census (and my book on how efforts to sabotage the 2020 census were largely stopped in their tracks).

Just for the record, Wiatrowski is a longtime BLS employee, a dedicated public servant, someone who has been acting commissioner before, and someone I would have total confidence in during a normal transfer of power. The scary part is who they replace *him* with.

Attorney General Pamela B... & @AGPamBondi Follow Thank you@PresMcCullough for your leadership and prompt action. Anti-Semitism will not be tolerated in Florida or anywhere else. @AAGDhillon@CivilRights@LeoTerrellDOJ and my US Attorney Jack Heekin (@NDFLNews) are investigating this. FSU Florida State University @FloridaState • 23h FSU - FSU FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY STATEMENT Updated 6:15 p.m. Thursday, July 31, 2025 Florida State University strongly condemns antisemitism lorida State University is actively addressing an n all forms and follows Florida law, which protects ewish students and employees from discrimination Iteration between two students that has been widely motivated by antisemitism, harassment, intimidation, nared on social media. The FSU Police Department has and violence. nterviewed the students shown in the video. The matter being reviewed for potential criminal charges and for support services have been offered to the victim on an harges under the FSU Student Code of Conduct. While mmediate and ongoing basis. Other students who need his process is underway, the student shown prominently supportive resources are encouraged to reach out to the n the video has been prohibited from returning to university's Counseling and Psychological Services ampus. Department (counseling.fsu.edu) or to the Department of Student Support and Transitions (dsst.fsu.edu). ur commitment to swiftly and effectively responding to ncidents of hate is unwavering. We appreciate the promp eport of this incident, which allowed us to address this stance of antisemitism without delay. 1 of 2 2 of 7 3:38 PM • 7/31/25 • 3.1M Views

The DOJ says it will investigate a US citizen for saying “fuck Isr**l” to a guy in an IDF shirt.

Absolutely the most anti-free speech admin of my lifetime. Probably since the Red Scare, if not earlier.

We’ve been looking for years of evidence of political manipulation of macro estimates, especially during COVID.

Funny that it ends up being a president just saying “I will manipulate the data. Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

All people talk about in the empirical quant world is how to get unbiased estimates. It's the mission, the ideal, the commitment. So I still get shocked that people believe grifters and fascists about the state of the world over, like, academics or the Bureau of Labor Statistics

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

This anecdote about David Duke’s 1991 run for Louisiana governor might as well just be lifted directly from the Simpsons

texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-v...

Texas's abortion ban is very out of step with the median voter. It's not the reddest gerrymander out there (it might be soon), but gerrymandering is one reason state policy is out of step with the preferences of Texans.

I hate poor people (am I doing this right)

OK I will accept that this is really bad form to do at a restaurant but I cannot accept the idea that something called "purse tuna" is bad. That sounds bomb. I support all purse canned fish.

Thankful for your econ wisdom!

Well Tom you’re in for a treat

Old money: Campaign finance and gerontocracy in the United States Politicians in the United States rank among the oldest globally. This study examines how money in politics contributes to age inequality in political …

@adambonica.bsky.social and I are economists now (economist salary coming soon, I imagine)

Ungated until the end of September: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

No I'm agreeing with you

^^^isn't that a correlation though??

Look at this crazy map of Dem Senate votes on yesterday's bill to block weapon sales to Israel. Safest senators from the bluest states tend to be the ones out of step with their voters (Dem base and their state's median voter)

General election competition still matters in some specific policy areas

twitter, specifically, is over 75% bot traffic