AdamE

He's 20 not 21 right?

Rogers 🕊️

𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭

GW27
🛼 to 2FTs

No decisions this week, easy roll, easy cap, easy JP.

𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭

GW26
Emery + VVD —> Glasner + Gabriel

Probability distribution graph comparing expected Assistant Manager points for GW26 between Mikel Arteta (Arsenal, red line) and Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace, blue line). Arteta shows a mean of 8.29 points with peaks around 8-12 points, while Glasner averages 8.25 with notable spikes at 0, 8-10, and 18-20 points. Both distributions suggest significant variance in potential outcomes.

📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner
Similar means, vastly different distributions:

Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer.

Odds data via @robtfpl.com

𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭

DGW25
Moyes —> Emery + 🛼

𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭

DGW24
DCL —> Beto
AM Moyes

What could go wrong…

🦋𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW23
Solanke + Lewis —> DCL + VVD (2/3 FTs)

🦋𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW22
Roll to 3FTs 🛼

Luke told me to bench Lewis but I didn’t listen.

🦋𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭🦋

GW21
Roll to 2FTs 🛼

Honking EV and lacking FTs against the field, work to be done.

#FPL Assistant Manager Chip Value Guide 💰🍟

This is a quick mock-up image to get a rough guide to Assistant Manager 'value' using elevenify.com team ratings.

This **does not** include any potential for table bonus... so these are baselines to work from for idea generation.

João Pedro has twisted his ankle in training and is a doubt to face Norwich—he’ll get a scan.

Lewis Dunk isn’t available.

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW20
Saliba + Timber —> TAA + Andersen

Probably the last analytics player to buy Trent - good process, chase points.

Thinking About Football Models What I Think About When I Think About Football.

Thinking About Football Models 📰

What I think about when I think about football.

I tried writing a longer article for those curious about modelling football matches. In a way, it is what I wish I could have read five years ago.

Happy New Year everyone 💜

www.elevenify.com/p/thinking-a...

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW19
🛼 to 2FTs

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW17
🛼 to 2FTs

💹 #FPL GW17 matchups

First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets

How have pre-match market projections compared with underlying data (xG) and outcomes so far this season?

A team by team look at the data from the first 15 gameweeks (rolling average of previous 3 GWs) 👇

Millot not injured is he? Have him in on WC.

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW15
Rolling to 3FTs 🛼

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW14
FT 🛼

Nilson

Reasonably 😅 I’d go low 60s for mins input

𝗦𝗽𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗽:

No Ange presser and an injury riddled squad.

— assuming Dom recovers from 🤒
— Romero still not in team training
— Kulu in for Maddison

🦋 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑪𝑭 🦋

GW13
DCL —> Joao P

🕊️

For FPL at £4.3m Forster represents some value, and looks set to be trusted as the No. 1 for now. Ange ruled out a free agent signing but who knows what may come around in Jan. I’d avoid Forster personally, clean sheets won’t be plentiful that’s for sure, mate.

Fraser Forster… when the news broke on Monday about Vicario’s injury every Spurs fan thought the same ‘we’re fucked’. It’s undoubtedly a huge downgrade and despite set piece troubles, Vic has been very good.

On Brennan, feels harsh after one, albeit outstanding, Maddison performance that he has been shunned to the bench. I don’t foresee this being a regular case over the the forthcoming weeks and Christmas period. For owners, a slight xMins reduction seems fair but I wouldn’t be overly concerned.

Setting Son’s mins to low ~80s range w/ decay applied is now fair, and Reviews defaults are close to reflecting this now imo. Also finally got the penalty clarification in EL as Son took and scored over Solanke (as expected). Son PK share now ~90% and Solanke’s closer to ~20%.