Hilary Wething

I was in California conducting focus groups with teachers last week. My big takeaway? Abbot Elementary is not a comedy, but actually a docuseries that accurately reflects how teachers scrape to get by all across the country.

Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky

I was travelling during #jobsday last week but wanted to share a few posts from my colleagues. In short, it's not good.

screenshot of the linked post titled "Trump’s firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous" by Heidi Shierholz, which reads: Today, Trump directed his team to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because he didn’t like the jobs numbers they released. This is a move straight out of an autocratic playbook. BLS is one of the most respected statistical agencies in the world, known for its methodological rigor, independence, and transparency. The president’s belief that the BLS commissioner personally “produced” the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate. These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians, and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies.

From @hshierholz.bsky.social: Trump's firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous. Between illegal firings, starving data agencies of resources, and now political intimidation, the US looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind

www.epi.org/press/trumps...

Wondering whether we might be headed into a recession? Check out @epi.org's Recession FAQ for data to watch and the consequences if it happens.
@joshbivens-econ.bsky.social @ahecon.bsky.social @hilwething.bsky.social @benzipperer.org
www.epi.org/publication/... #EconSky

Keep this in mind when looking at today's report. The report is for June, when many schools let out and begin summer vacation.

BLS #JobsDay report is out and higher than ADP projections-- payroll up by 147k & unemp at 4.1%. "Job gains
occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs."

Thanks to @lastweektonight.com for a great story on why work requirements are bad policy and for citing my research!

Never thought I’d see my name next to John Oliver’s face while he talks about my work!!

Want to know how a voucher program would impact your school district? ‪

@hilwething.bsky.social shares a free online tool to estimate the costs of vouchers—including hidden costs that are most harmful to under-resourced schools—in the new #AmericanEducator. www.aft.org/ae/summer2025/wething

9 things to know about the big, private-school voucher plan in Republicans' tax bill NPR asked researchers, advocates, tax experts, a parent and a public school leader for their thoughts on this first-of-its-kind national voucher plan. Here's what they said.

See this piece from @npr.org for a deeper dive into 9 things to know about the federal school voucher proposal: www.npr.org/2025/05/23/n...

Kentucky Voters Buried Private School Vouchers. One More Idea Must Die to Truly Reinvest in Our Public Schools - Kentucky Center for Economic Policy Kentucky can't truly reinvest in our public schools unless lawmakers abandon the goal of eliminating the state's income tax.

Vouchers are often unpopular, incl. in red states, b/c voters prefer to spend public $ on public schools: Kentucky voters rejected a ballot measure last fall in all 120 counties that would have amended the KY constitution to allow school vouchers. @kypolicy.bsky.social kypolicy.org/kentucky-vot...

How vouchers harm public schools: Calculating the cost of voucher programs to public school districts Overview What this report is about Voucher programs for schools are rapidly expanding across the country. Under these programs, public budgets provide funding to parents to either send their children ...

A national voucher could incentivize students to leave public schools, shortchanging remaining students by leaving fewer dollars for costs like books & teachers because a higher proportion of funding wld be needed to cover fixed costs like heating & maintenance. @epi.org www.epi.org/publication/...

The national school voucher proposal in the Senate GOP reconciliation plan would threaten students’ access to quality public schools, give tax breaks to the wealthy, & override states that have rejected these harmful policies. Lawmakers who care about our kids’ futures should reject it.

It will take a police state to remove 14 million US residents, and we're well on our way to getting there, and it's what Trump wants - at least for Democratic led states. If the reconciliation bill becomes law, the money allocated for immigration enforcement could mean there's no turning back:

The correct way to connect the authoritarian presence in LA and the Big Beautiful Bill is that the bill gives the government the resources to do this in dozens of cities at once. So if you don't like what's happening in LA, it's coming to your town if the bill passes.

Recession FAQ Interest in recessions has been elevated lately. The word "recession" started spiking in both media discussions and Google searches in March and persisted into April (see Figure A). While the public’s...

What is a recession? How can you know if we're in one? Who will be impacted? What can we do about it? Find out As to these and your other burning questions in @epi.org's latest Recession FAQs. www.epi.org/publication/... #recession

I think this point is key for today's #JobsDay. Gvt lost ~59k since January. That didn't translate to a big jump-scare in the unemp numbers yet, but we are eroding government capacity really quickly and it will surely take a toll on the services we count on.

Employment in the federal govt fell 22k in April, down 59k since Jan. Even as bad as this is, the devastation to the federal workforce has yet to be fully realized because many workers are on administration leave and more recent federal UI claims data suggest further cutbacks.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

Another “tale of two surveys” for #JobsDay. The payroll survey was solid—139k jobs added—while the household survey showed a huge drop in employment, -696k. (The unemp rate didn’t rise because the drop in employment was masked by people dropping out of the labor force.) 1/

The latest BLS data out this morning suggests the labor market remains relatively resilient compared to softer measures though the household survey shows some signs of weakness.
- payroll jobs up 139k
- federal jobs down 22k
- labor force participation down 625k
#EconSky #NumbersDay @epi.org

#JobsDay #NumbersDay today in line with predictions: Payroll up by 139,000 and unemployment is 4.2%

Americans support labor over big business more now than at any time on record. @epi.org

www.epi.org/blog/america...

The five-alarm fire that public education is facing Acknowledgments: This blog post would not have been possible without the intellectual contribution and data analysis conducted by Joanna LeFebvre and Katja Krieger. All children deserve to attend welc...

Public schools are one of the best tools we have to build a prosperous, equitable country🏫

EPI's @hilwething.bsky.social outlines 5 threats to public school funding, from voucher programs to Trump's attacks on the Dept of Ed: www.epi.org/blog/the-fiv...

Invest in public schools, don't defund them!

Yes, What We Pay Teachers Matters Paying teachers well is an essential part of a healthier public education system

It's Teacher Appreciation Week. Here's how to appreciate teachers: pay them better.

Here's the problem...

This is what the jobs report would look like if the economy were going to motor through turbulent waters.

This is also what the jobs report (measuring early April) would look like if the economy got clobbered on April 2.

How does this end?

My professional opinion: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The household survey appears stronger than the payroll survey for April, but I might caution touting the faster job growth.
1. the household survey is more volatile month to month
2. the concepts are slightly different and it appears that self-employment might be a leading factor behind the gains

Manufacturing employment, often a bellwether of coming trouble, has been pretty flat the last couple of months. While jobs aren't up, there's been a slight decline in weekly work hours. While not cutting workers, employers may be cutting hours of their current workforce.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

Employment in the federal govt fell 9k in April, down 26k since Jan. The devastation to the federal workforce has yet to be fully realized in these data because many workers are on administration leave (on payroll) and more recent federal UI claims data suggest further cutbacks.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

The hard data on the labor market remains far more resilient than softer measures have suggested in recent weeks. The unemployment rate held steady with a bump in labor force participation and employment. Payroll jobs grew by 177k, but losses continue in federal employment, down 26k since January.

Just a reminder for when you look at the GDP numbers, it is actually bonkers they look so bad given how strong of an economy Trump inherited