Adam Carlson

Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district

Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points

Buckle up.

Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.

He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.

I’m sticking with Graham.

3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!

Almost to the finish line folks! ✊

Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.

NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.

Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.

Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.

So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.

So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?

Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?

But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.

Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).

And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).

Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders

Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)

With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.

But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.

Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors

But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition

Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.

The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.

Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:

🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided

So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.

Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues? The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing

I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.

open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.

And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.

Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll

He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%

It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents

Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided

Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!

Listen here:

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...

Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.

So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.

We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.

@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to

If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%

www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

Ayyy that’s my poll

Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.

More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.

P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.

So let's do things differently.

Let's challenge some assumptions.

Let's shake up some established norms.

Let's following the data wherever it leads.

Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.

And let's have some fun while we're doing it!

Zenith Research

My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers

If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:

zenith-research.com

Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!

After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.

Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:

Adam Carlson - Fishbone Advisors | LinkedIn Strategic research and insights leader with 12 years of experience at the intersection of… · Experience: Fishbone Advisors · Education: The George Washington University · Location: Brooklyn · 500+ con...

www.linkedin.com/in/adamcarls...

Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday

If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry

If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing

Thanks!

Exclusive | Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Failed Negotiations to End Antitrust Case The FTC wanted $30 billion to drop its case. Zuckerberg offered much less and hoped Trump would back him up.

www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...