@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Recovering political pollster, current market researcher, and election nerd. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Ayyy that’s my poll
01.08.2025 01:05 — 👍 33 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.
08.07.2025 01:36 — 👍 14 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0So let's do things differently.
Let's challenge some assumptions.
Let's shake up some established norms.
Let's following the data wherever it leads.
Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.
And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers
If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:
zenith-research.com
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
05.05.2025 19:17 — 👍 118 🔁 62 💬 2 📌 1Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
And here is the crux of it.
The MAGA wing of the party blames Meta and Zuckerberg for Trump’s loss in 2020, and they are trying to defang them in 2028 and beyond.
In a shocking twist, that sudden 180° that Zuckerberg did saying “the workplace needs more masculine energy” on Rogan back in early January was 100% fake.
16.04.2025 03:41 — 👍 27 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 2
16.04.2025 03:41 — 👍 20 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
We really didn’t deserve Lina
16.04.2025 03:41 — 👍 40 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
Hey Matt. These are my charts, please cite me in the future. Thanks!
15.04.2025 02:58 — 👍 20 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
14.03.2025 01:45 — 👍 371 🔁 35 💬 15 📌 1VoteHub, Race to the White House, Silver Bulletin
10.03.2025 22:54 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Yeah but simpler methodology
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Methodology for those interested:
10.03.2025 22:27 — 👍 11 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0Outside of core partisans:
Trump's strongest groups:
Rural (+23)
White Non-College (+20)
Men (+11)
Age 45-64 (+9)
Non-College (+9)
White (+8)
Trump's weakest groups:
Black (-32)
College Grad+ (-19)
White College+ (-15)
Women (-11)
Age 30-44 (-11)
Independent (-9)
Moderate (-8)
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
10.03.2025 22:26 — 👍 83 🔁 9 💬 4 📌 8
Here are the 9 polls with out-of-field dates in the last 10 days
10.03.2025 22:25 — 👍 27 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative.
10-day unweighted rolling average:
• Feb 1 🟢 +8.6
• Feb 15 🟢 +5.3
• Mar 1 🟢 +1.3
• Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
Oh ok
10.03.2025 17:15 — 👍 54 🔁 6 💬 2 📌 0
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
10.03.2025 17:12 — 👍 72 🔁 2 💬 5 📌 3Have to admit I had to look her up lol
10.03.2025 17:08 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
10.03.2025 16:52 — 👍 18 🔁 8 💬 4 📌 1
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there.
Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
