Yeah that’s my read too
@coleurbanist.bsky.social
High turnout in the open seat Dem primaries in IL-07 (touches 23 wards in central/South Side/West/Northwest Sides) & IL-09 (touches 7 wards in the Far North/North Lakefront) is very important for Stratton to run up the score in Chicago — necessary to offset expected deficits downstate.
Kelly is more likely to pull from Stratton citywide, but her congressional district only touches five wards (4, 5, 7, 9, 10 — the last of which is majority Latino and expected to favor Raja).
Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions.
Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.
Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.
Gray wards are usually competitive.
And here are the full region definitions:
Here ya go!
🔵 68% think the MD Senate should vote on the map the House of Delegates passed, which would flip one seat to Dems, giving them a 8D-0R map (the Dem-led Senate, led by Senate President @SenBillFerg, is currently refusing to hold a debate or a vote on it)
🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨
🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.
Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.
So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?
Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?
But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.
Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).
And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).
Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders
Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)
With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.
But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.
Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors
But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.
The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.
Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.
And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll
He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%
It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!
Listen here:
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Ayyy that’s my poll
