Jonathan Thomas

As the Home Secretary set out changes to asylum and returns policy, SMF Senior Fellow @JTMigratory.bsky.social argued the Govt's Danish-style immigration plans must meet the high expectations they have set.

Read Jonathan's full reaction👇
buff.ly/cWR54us

Trump doubles down on plan for 600,000 Chinese student visas despite MAGA backlash President Donald Trump defends his plan to offer 600,000 visas to Chinese students during Fox News interview, facing criticism from conservative circles.

Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...

Should work ­restrictions on asylum-seekers in Britain be reformed? | Oct 4th 2025 Edition Also this week, America’s relations with Israel, the US constitution, cosy crime, the Democrats

My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK.
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic.

Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.

Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.

My take on yet another change of Home Secretary.

And in defence of the last one.

3/
3. Social care visa developments: small window now – in both space and time (until July 2028) – to enter UK social care jobs through graduate route

But other factors may push against. Like the huge recent depreciation of the Nigerian currency.

Can intl students afford the UK?

We shall see.

2/
1. Relative attraction of UK vs US craziness & uncertainty + Canadian and Australian numerical restrictions - UK graduate visa remains in place & no cap on numbers +

2. Lower tariff unis = increasingly struggling for domestic students; finances of many remain v dependent on intl students

1/ Start of the HE academic year.

'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?

The Incredibles: Nigel Farage’s plan to tackle illegal migration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond? Nigel Farage has outlined the details of his plan to tackle illegal immigration to the UK under a Reform government.

The Incredibles

Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?

For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market is college worth it? and other questions about the state of things

Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies. 

If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...

EU set to demand free NHS healthcare with under-30s travel visas Despite a broad softer Brexit agreement, the UK still has to hammer out the details with Europe

Today's big UK immigration news.

Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Home Office to share asylum hotel locations with Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats The agreement is aimed at helping companies identify migrants who are working illegally in the UK.

UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.

Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?

Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware

What's wrong with bliss?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

2 - and it keeps getting pushback from BBC Verify who argue - half fairly - the Govt is over-stating its achievement, taking credit for returning people who have left the UK without any intervention by the Govt. This makes the Govt look disingenuous.

Maybe the Govt should rethink this approach?

1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.

Understandable. But unfortunately:

1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...

4/ 5. The risk though =

- the pilot doesn’t expand any further
- = not large enough to ‘break the model’ of the 'people smugglers'
- has insufficient deterrent effect for the Govt to be able to claim political success on the Channel flows.

And then what ...?

3/ that = the swift return of all irregular Channel arrivals (save for exceptional cases) in return for taking in asylum claimants from France and/or elsewhere in the EU with a clear connection to the UK.

4. Today’s deal is not that deal, but it’s a start.

2/ ...has increased pressure on the Govt for tangible progress on Channel returns/migrant swap deal.

3. the best deal = a deal which undermines the incentives and economics of movement across the Channel ...

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

Jonathan Thomas: Badenoch’s Lawfare Commission may yet prove a winning strategy on the ECHR | Conservative Home Perhaps it is because politically the Conservatives now have little to lose that Badenoch can ask important questions about what the protections, impacts and trade-offs inherent in different internati...

conservativehome.com/2025/07/07/j...

My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.

And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.

Can’t live with it, can’t live without it: the strange case of the Resident Labour Market Test We’re now beginning to see the full consequences of the absence of the Resident Labour Market Test from the Immigration White Paper.

Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

For @smfthinktank.bsky.social

That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.

I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.

2 -

1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.

As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out.
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...

My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration:

- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?

- why is Angela Rayner so interested?

- and how to respond to this?

With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training.

But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.