Brexit and Immigration: the Arc of the Pendulum
My report out today for @consoc.bsky.social trying to make sense of the last 25 years of the UK's immigration politics and policy. And where next?
consoc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
As the Home Secretary set out changes to asylum and returns policy, SMF Senior Fellow @JTMigratory.bsky.social argued the Govt's Danish-style immigration plans must meet the high expectations they have set.
Read Jonathan's full reaction👇
buff.ly/cWR54us
Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK.
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic.
Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.
Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
My take on yet another change of Home Secretary.
And in defence of the last one.
3/
3. Social care visa developments: small window now – in both space and time (until July 2028) – to enter UK social care jobs through graduate route
But other factors may push against. Like the huge recent depreciation of the Nigerian currency.
Can intl students afford the UK?
We shall see.
2/
1. Relative attraction of UK vs US craziness & uncertainty + Canadian and Australian numerical restrictions - UK graduate visa remains in place & no cap on numbers +
2. Lower tariff unis = increasingly struggling for domestic students; finances of many remain v dependent on intl students
1/ Start of the HE academic year.
'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
The Incredibles
Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies.
If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
Today's big UK immigration news.
Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.
Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?
Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware
What's wrong with bliss?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
2 - and it keeps getting pushback from BBC Verify who argue - half fairly - the Govt is over-stating its achievement, taking credit for returning people who have left the UK without any intervention by the Govt. This makes the Govt look disingenuous.
Maybe the Govt should rethink this approach?
1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.
Understandable. But unfortunately:
1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...
4/ 5. The risk though =
- the pilot doesn’t expand any further
- = not large enough to ‘break the model’ of the 'people smugglers'
- has insufficient deterrent effect for the Govt to be able to claim political success on the Channel flows.
And then what ...?
3/ that = the swift return of all irregular Channel arrivals (save for exceptional cases) in return for taking in asylum claimants from France and/or elsewhere in the EU with a clear connection to the UK.
4. Today’s deal is not that deal, but it’s a start.
2/ ...has increased pressure on the Govt for tangible progress on Channel returns/migrant swap deal.
3. the best deal = a deal which undermines the incentives and economics of movement across the Channel ...
1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...
My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.
And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.
I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
2 -
1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.
As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out.
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
