Jonathan Thomas

Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market is college worth it? and other questions about the state of things

Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies. 

If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...

EU set to demand free NHS healthcare with under-30s travel visas Despite a broad softer Brexit agreement, the UK still has to hammer out the details with Europe

Today's big UK immigration news.

Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Home Office to share asylum hotel locations with Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats The agreement is aimed at helping companies identify migrants who are working illegally in the UK.

UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.

Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?

Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware

What's wrong with bliss?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

2 - and it keeps getting pushback from BBC Verify who argue - half fairly - the Govt is over-stating its achievement, taking credit for returning people who have left the UK without any intervention by the Govt. This makes the Govt look disingenuous.

Maybe the Govt should rethink this approach?

1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.

Understandable. But unfortunately:

1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...

4/ 5. The risk though =

- the pilot doesn’t expand any further
- = not large enough to ‘break the model’ of the 'people smugglers'
- has insufficient deterrent effect for the Govt to be able to claim political success on the Channel flows.

And then what ...?

3/ that = the swift return of all irregular Channel arrivals (save for exceptional cases) in return for taking in asylum claimants from France and/or elsewhere in the EU with a clear connection to the UK.

4. Today’s deal is not that deal, but it’s a start.

2/ ...has increased pressure on the Govt for tangible progress on Channel returns/migrant swap deal.

3. the best deal = a deal which undermines the incentives and economics of movement across the Channel ...

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

Jonathan Thomas: Badenoch’s Lawfare Commission may yet prove a winning strategy on the ECHR | Conservative Home Perhaps it is because politically the Conservatives now have little to lose that Badenoch can ask important questions about what the protections, impacts and trade-offs inherent in different internati...

conservativehome.com/2025/07/07/j...

My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.

And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.

Can’t live with it, can’t live without it: the strange case of the Resident Labour Market Test We’re now beginning to see the full consequences of the absence of the Resident Labour Market Test from the Immigration White Paper.

Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

For @smfthinktank.bsky.social

That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.

I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.

2 -

1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.

As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...

This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible

www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out.
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...

My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration:

- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?

- why is Angela Rayner so interested?

- and how to respond to this?

With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training.

But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.

Direction of travel on YMS seems right.
Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves.
UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will:
(1) be a good deal
(2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it.
Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

V supportive of this.
This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted.
Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.

My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on:
- the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper,
- what just happened and why,
- and how should business respond.

My full report for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the Immigration White Paper coming shortly.

For now: glad to see that this Govt has at least committed to use the Immigration Skills Charge for its proper purpose.

This is much more impt than most people think. So I am liking the foot of page 27.

Germany’s anti-immigration path is not quite what it seems Germany and UK both proposed five-point plans to address immigration, but their approaches differ significantly.

What might the German election tell us about UK immigration policy? My short piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Sicily's gangsters forced to modernise but complain they can't get the staff An investigation reveals a crime group having to adapt to modernity and displaying a nostalgia for past ambitions.

Lord. Is there no sector not complaining of skills shortages? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Agree 100%.

Lawyers have a duty to pull all the levers they can for their client.

They can't be concerned with what the political headlines are going to look like.

But the political headlines around this are terrible for more reasoned consideration around safe routes.

Good point. I think this piece in effect makes the same point though.

Why are more 50+s choosing hospitality in recent years? Largely because they want that sort of job and it fits with their lifestyle. They choose it precisely for its lower productivity vibe and features. Same as the under 25s.

Re hospitality sector though, young Brits gen use it as 1st experience of earning money/working life before moving on with their career elsewhere. V few stay in that sector.

So I wouldn't view shrinking hospitality sector as meaningfully resulting in reallocation to other, higher prod, sectors.