Karl Whelan

I worked closely with Hassett for about a year at the Fed in the 90s. As his TV persona suggests, he really was a nice guy in person. But his long descent into MAGA hackery has been pretty painful to watch. Hard to know if it's bank account boosting cynicism or he's just lost connection with reality

Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.

Seeing a journalist lose their mind on X, I remember when they misunderstood something to do with solvency/liquidity of banks a few years ago. Attempts to explain were dismissed as "mansplaining". Someone even recommeded my lecture notes! Certainty you're never wrong + social media leads to madness.

Planning approval overturned for 221-bed student accommodation in north Dublin Courts do not quash things on ‘mere technicalities’, says judge following decision on Santry development

Judge says they do not tend to quash things on the basis of “mere technicalities” as he quashes a much needed 221 bed student accommodation building over a "defective newspaper notice" and not erecting a changed site notice because these impacted the right of this one guy to object to it.

Well, the good news for you is that you get to live in a country that works the way you want it to. But perhaps you can understand why people who want to see important and widely-beneficial infrastructure projects get done are frustrated with that system.

It's 20 people versus the biggest infrastructure project in the country. Yes, I'm comfortable with that.

Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.

Or perhaps a legal system so complex that all those officials, consultants and planners can't manage to meet every single box ticking requirement.

Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.

Bye bye!

Can't rely on hope any more. Those grown-ups have a long track record of taking forever to reach decisions and rescinding major projects completely, putting them back to square one.

The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.

Whatever the benefits of these reviews, it's not about democracy. There is a huge democratic mandate for this project.

Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.

Time to actually get things done.

Dublin’s €10 billion MetroLink to face legal challenge from group of 20 Ranelagh residents Judicial review could delay planned 18.8km line running from Swords to Dublin Airport and through city centre

Supporters of Ireland's planning system say it is wonderfully democratic. But here is a major project supported by repeated democratically-elected governments and put through a rigorous planning process (including plenty of public input) being stopped by 20 people. That's not democracy. It's chaos.

Lorcan Sirr: The five things Ireland must do to help fix housing Introduce a residency requirement, change the legal definition of ‘rent’ and start counting bed spaces

5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

Now it's being framed as "saving jobs". The country is at full employment. Letting restaurants earn bigger profits won't create a single new job - if they more hire people, they will just take them from elsewhere. And the measure is hugely expensive. An awful policy. And I suspect Paschal knows it.

Paschal Donohoe confirms no personal tax changes to be made in budget Minister for Finance says focus will be on tax measures that keep jobs in the country and enhance Ireland’s competitiveness

Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back.

www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Routine for every class now:
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page

"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF"

Funny.

I bet the Bank is super careful about its budget for tea and biscuits because "public money dear boy ..." but somehow they think it's fine to implement their main policy in a way that is unnecessarily expensive for the taxpayer.

The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.

Yep. I'm well aware he was a terrible guy. Deleted the post to stop this kind of nonsense being in my messages.

One person's logical fallacies and invalid arguments are another person's "common sense". I didn't like the guy at all. I just thought the reaction to Ezra's piece wasn't fully justified.

Yep. I wasn't a fan.

These ideas go way beyond one guy and those young minds are exposed to them everywhere. Ezra's point - "Liberalism could use more of his moxie and fearlessness" - is these ideas need to be challanged with the same energy with which they are being promoted.

I will also point out that I don’t post much here but I made the Hitler analogy in response to an article by Simon Jenkins praising Trump. But because it was Trump not guys like Kirk.

Ok, but I didn't make the argument about Hitler, did I? Sorry I replied tbh. Too old for this shit.

He said lots of stuff that was obviously wrong but people who live in a bubble of self-feeding disinformation usually really belive the nonsense they spout is correct. I suspect he rarely believed he was outright lying. And while he added to the division, he was more a symptom than a cause.

Congratulations on the Godwin's law in one step contribution. This guy literally was not Hitler.

I gave up after writing this and then seeing the exact same discussion a year later. I'm out of the UK fiscal commentary business.

karlwhelan.com/blog/?p=2132

When it’s annual black hole season, you’ve gotta do the black hole thing. It’s a modern British cultural tradition.

Dundrum Town Centre owners appeal council refusal for outdoor food concessions Local residents cited concerns around fire safety as well as ‘serious health, hygiene, and safety risks'

So guys selling donuts & hotdogs outside a shopping centre is "prohibiting the making of a space dedicated to pedestrians and the general public” and stops it acting "as a distinct focal point" Planning-person brain on steroids. No wonder nothing ever gets done

www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.