Daily Chartbook

"The average number of years a company remains in the S&P 500 index keeps declining ... The bottom line is that companies in the S&P 500 stay successful for shorter and shorter periods."

-Apollo Slok

"The forward earnings estimates for members of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have been revised up by more than 20% since September-end ... estimates for corporate profit in the region have risen to the highest since early 2023 relative to global peers"

-Bloomberg

"Barely three-quarters of companies in the S&P 500 outdid forecasts, the fewest in three years and down from 82% last quarter ... In Europe, 47% of companies in the MSCI Europe overperformed, well below the 54% average of the past five years."

-Bloomberg

"Is there life in the U.S. stock market once the Mag 7 is no longer a leader? ... early results are encouraging."

Jim Paulsen

Software has been in a relative downtrend vs. Semis for a decade.

via Macro Charts

"About 90.5 million barrels of oil are currently floating on the water, which may dampen the rational overshooting in the price of Brent crude when trading resumes."

Joe Brusuelas

The Mag 7—proxied here by $MAGS—closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since May'25, ending its streak at 200 days.

"Gotta love a decade-plus breakout but XLE flows represent a tactical risk to the energy trade. Most one-month inflows since 2008".

-Scott Brown, Brown Technical Insights

"The US now spends basically as much on data center construction as on office construction"

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈

"In normal, pre-Covid times, most economists would predict that 3.6% M2 growth would lead to a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation. Yet today the chatter is all about whether inflation is going to rise."

-Scott Grannis

"Final demand trade services surged 2.5% in January. This is a warning that inflationary pressure has built up in the distribution chain. Producers have increased prices above costs, which means they have room to pass on the costs of tariffs down to buyers."

-RenMac

DC Lite #545 "Retail trading activity in the beaten-down software sector is approaching record levels"

5 of Thursday's best charts and insights:

"Saudi Arabia—the world’s top oil exporter—has increased production and exports to their highest level since April 2023"

-Larry Adam, Raymond James

"Retail trading activity in the beaten-down software sector is approaching record levels".

JPMorgan via Bloomberg

"The Goldman Sachs Prime Book shows hedge funds building historic short positions in Software stocks. In other words, they're not just lightening up. They're actively pressing bets to the downside".

-JC Parets, TrendLabs

Active managers reduced exposure to US equities to the lowest since May'25.

"QE might have an impact on investor psychology, particularly in times of crisis, but there is no evidence it systematically distorts financial markets in the way Kevin Warsh et al. claim"

-Dario Perkins, TS Lombard

Mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time Sep'22, per Freddie Mac.

via NYT

"Roughly half (49%) of U.S. residents struggle to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments"

-Redfin

The national average of residential electricity prices rose 5.0% in 2025, reaching 17.3 cents/kWh. This was the fourth straight year of power prices escalating at a faster pace than the overall CPI"

-Larry Adam, Raymond James

"For 99.6% of days over the past decade, the Mag 7 (ex-Tesla) has traded at a premium to Consumer Staples sector. It is now trading at a discount."

-Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt

“Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years.”

-Ryan Detrick, Carson

"The vast majority of S&P 500 companies are talking about AI this earnings season, at least in broad strokes ... just 1% of the members of the S&P 500 have 'quantified the impact of AI on earnings.'"

Goldman Sachs via Sherwood

"Total U.S. employment increased approximately 2.5 percent since ChatGPT's release in fall 2022 ... employment has declined 1 percent since late 2022 in the 10 percent of sectors most exposed to AI".

-Dallas Fed

"In spite of the current displacement narrative - job postings for software engineers are rising rapidly, up 11% YoY."

-Frank Flight, Citadel

“ETF inflows up to $304b YTD, which is DOUBLE the all-time record pace from last year.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/861 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

"The number of homebuyers in the market fell 1% month over month and 8% year over year in January to an estimated 1.36 million—the lowest level on record."

-Redfin

"There are 600,000 more home sellers than buyers, giving the buyers who are in the market negotiating power."

-Redfin

"Sales are falling through at a higher rate than in the past largely because it’s a buyer’s market, with hundreds of thousands more U.S. home sellers than buyers."

-Redfin

"U.S. M&A deal activity increased in January, going up 1.4% with 1,327 announcements compared to 1,309 in December. However, aggregate M&A spending decreased. In January, 68.4% less was spent on deals compared to December."

-FactSet