Daily Chartbook

"Dallas Fed data show net unauthorized immigration flows turning negative, meaning more individuals are leaving the US than entering"

-Apollo Slok

"In the past few years, there has been a meteoric rise of venture-backed AI giants like SpaceX and OpenAI, with the collective valuation of the 10 largest companies seeing a 1,500% increase since March 2021."

-S&P Global Vörös

"The good news is that most major economies are less dependent on oil from the Middle East than they were in the past"

-Dario Perkins, TS Lombard

Last "Tuesday was the worst session for long-short managers (investors who pair long positions against short positions) since last April’s tariff selloff—even as the S&P 500 fell by less than 1%."

-Goldman Sachs

"The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing the cost and complexity of launching a company"

-Apollo Slok

"Some $49 billion flowed into money-market funds in the week ending March 3 ... The latest funds boosted this year’s inflows to more than $162 billion."

-Bloomberg

Sector fund flows: "Energy and Financials continued their roller coaster ride in February. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Staples provided some ballast for portfolios."

-FactSet

"Small caps are much more reliant on floating rate debt than large caps. That makes them much more exposed to changes in the fed funds rate."

-Phil Mackintosh, Nasdasq

"Consensus estimates project the Nasdaq-100® to continue its streak of 15%+ earnings growth for the next year and for the S&P 600 small caps to continue its own streak of positive earnings growth."

-Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq

"Single-stock implied volatility continues to trade at a historically wide premium to index volatility, reflecting structurally lower implied correlation and persistent demand for idiosyncratic protection."

-Apollo Slok

"Volatility has no signs of abating in the near term. As of Fridays close, the options market is implying a 2.86% move for SPX next week."

-GS Morgan

Q: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $100 by end of March?
@Polymarket:

VIX closed at its highest since the Apr'25 tariff (and above the +1 StD level).

"Gold tends to move first. Copper follows. Energy is moving now. Agricultural commodities are likely next."

-Tavi Costa

"The current logistics nightmare will show up most acutely in the price of refined products"

-Warren Pies

"Average week unemployed is now back to levels not seen since early 2022, well above 2019 levels."

-Mike Konczal

"No silver lining to this jobs report."

-Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macro

"Nearly 45,000 U.S. homes that were delisted last year were relisted for sale in January 2026—the highest January figure in records dating back to 2016. That represents a record 3.6% of homes that were on the market in January."

-Redfin

"Despite a year of elevated cost and price increases, firms’ median year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.0 percent, returning to where expectations were in 2024"

NY Fed

"Looking ahead to 2026, firms expect price increases to moderate somewhat, but to remain elevated at just over 4 percent. This expected pace of price increases represents a deceleration from 2025 levels but remains above price increases reported in 2024"

NY Fed

"The Fed's latest senior loan officer opinion survey shows that the severe tightening in lending standards during 2022–23 has eased across all major loan categories"

-Yardeni

"The average stock within the index has been nearly three times as volatile as the index itself (and the implied vol spread suggests the options market believes this will persist)."

-GS Pasquariello via ZH

"Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging."

-Glassnode

Wednesday’s outflow from $GLD was the largest since 2016.

"AI is far from reaching its theoretical capabilities ... As capabilities advance, adoption spreads, and deployment deepens, the red area will grow to cover the blue"

-Anthropic

"If you combine a bunch of different alt data sources that track the labor market, there's been clear, ongoing improvement since September."

-Joe Weisenthal

Kevin Warsh ranks as the 10th most hawkish Fed speaker going back to 1995 (era-adjusted, 10 speech minimum), per @TheStalwart FedLock tool

"Inflation expectations have not been rattled by the war and are trending to low levels."

-Paul Mortimer-Lee

"U.S. investor home purchases ticked up 2% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, coming in at just under 50,000. That’s the eighth straight quarter of minimal changes in investor activity."

-Redfin

"With low immigration and strong tailwinds to growth from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautifull Bill, it is not a surprise that wage growth is rising for job switchers"

-Apollo Slok