Of the 485 earnings calls conducted between 12/15-3/11, a record 331 companies (68%) cited "AI". Notably, these companies have shown softer YTD price appreciation compared to those that did not mention "AI". Narrative fatigue?
Since the start of the US-Iran war, breadth has deteriorated sharply across large, mid, and small caps.
"Jet fuel costs have increased by 81% since the start of the war in Iran and are up by 124% this year."
Joe Brusuelas
"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors."
-EPB Research
"Services inflation breaking bad. PCE core services inflation excluding housing & financial imputations (right) finally broke out of the 2.7-3% range it's been in for two years, but to the upside, to 3.2%. Adding in core goods (left) yields 2.7% & an even-sharper recent breakout."
Ernie Tedeschi
Mag 7 just lost a key level $MAGS
"Friday the 13th has actually been the strongest day relative to other days of the week (including Fridays
generally), posting average gains of +0.09% and finishing positive 58% of the time"
-Larry Adam, Raymond James
"Software faces a massive $40 billion maturity wall in 2028, dominated by lower-rated B- credits, exposing the sector to refinancing risks amid AI disruption and rates higher for longer"
-Apollo Slok
"The cost of protection is near the most expensive levels in history."
-Macro Charts
Active manager exposure to US equities is sinking: NAAIM Exposure Index now at the lowest since Apr'25.
"Strait of Hormuz being closed for 3 months would get Brent crude oil up to $164/barrel"
-Kevin Gordon
"The number of rate cuts priced in for 2026 fell below one."
-Augur Infinity
"The macro reacceleration theme remains intact ... global PMIs continued to strengthen in February, with the share of global manufacturing PMIs in expansion territory now at 85%, and the global composite PMI is at its strongest in almost two years."
-TS Lombard
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks"
-Simon White, BBG
"When Wall Street zigged in February, Schwab clients zagged ... STAX enjoyed the biggest monthly percentage gain since late 2020, finishing February at 57.32, the highest reading for the headline since a 59.53 in February 2022."
-Schwab
"Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025."
-Todd Sohn, Strategas
"When tech OAS is wider than industrial OAS, now at its widest since 2016, the economy hic-cups, at least"
-Steven Blitz, TS Lombard
"Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure."
-Andrew Thrasher
"This is a historically highly unusual divergence btwn the two common measures of aggregate inflation due to different coverage and weighting methodologies"
-Steve Hou, BBG
one downside trigger yet to be realised, CTA positioning: h/t @dailychartbook.bsky.social
"Many young adults in the US who feel behind financially are looking to high-risk, speculative areas such as prediction markets, sports betting and crypto to reach their goals faster."
-Suzanne Woolley
"Just under one in five (18.8%) house hunters looked to move to a different part of the country in the fourth quarter."
-Redfin
"Annual U.S. crude oil exports in 2025 decreased 3% from 2024, the first annual decrease since 2021."
-EIA
"The vol market reaction to [Monday's] trading suggests significant hedge unwinds went through ... Historically, when vol reacts like this it has marked a tactical bottom in the S&P"
-GS Garrett via ZH
"Investors rotated aggressively out of U.S. large caps last week, favoring global funds, bonds, and broader equity universe (with a tilt towards consumer cyclicals)"
Arbor Data via Liz Ann Sonders
"The IMI's Risk Appetite Index ... fell into risk averse territory in March ... the headline index has slumped from +13% in February to -16% in March, signaling net risk aversion for the first time since last September."
-S&P Global
"Gasoline typically rises by $0.25/gallon for every $10/barrel increase in oil."
-Larry Adam, Raymond James
