Why no learn?

Campbell on X: "Long APIs, Short Slides" / X Long APIs, Short Slides

x.com/abcampbell/s...

Yep. I don’t know a lot but I know that is true. Margin management…..3x and your happy ( or vice versa). You said it. You may not be able to size to get one trade to give you FU money. But there will be others. But you need to know to your soul you’re right.

I think I too am a perpetrator of prejudice. Met a dude who looks like Stephen Miller. I will never be able to let my kids be near him alone

You only need one. But you need to know it’s the one. You need to know. So many chances for doubt. So many people saying you’re wrong. Conviction is only a virtue when well placed. Hindsight says that’s easy. It isn’t. It never is. That’s why you get the money. Bless him

It’s actually a good exercise. I knew nothing till I did 3 way financial modeling. The interactions…profits great but cash flow is where things hit the road period to period.

So my point is provided volume goes with it you’re less concerned? I’m trying to understand stand the fundamentals behind the heuristic

This is sticking me. The MA takes volume into account t right. It’s weighted to volume?

Specific to stocks. Not commodities I assume

think some people built different. one thing I have come to understand about myself is it is impossible if I don’t size right. I suspect no one keeps their cool if they are in a trade that could end them.

Two years from now you feel no emotion about any trade. Just go straight there. Easier said

You mean the toilet as in ‘I’m down a tonne and this thing keeps moving up and I’m vomiting because my emotions are beating down what I know to be true’?

I have the feeling this will be a master stroke (yet again)

All the best Sparty. Thanks for the content. As always, let me know if you can ever use anything from down under

Maybe I’m just convincing myself…but I don’t often like a long and I would not short this. Seems a bunch of narratives that don’t actually seem grounded in what the dollars do in reality. Will bounce hard if it does bounce I suspect. Tough stock to cover yourself for on the upside

Bit of trivia is that booli owner is a competitor of a few of the major estate agent owners there (owned by banks)

Homes sold is the metric that matters. Pre market volumes are often stale.

No qualms with the view on volume reductions. That is true. It will in the short term move with the realestate volumes.

Earnings coming Thursday if I recall for hemnet too. So could be spicy short term.

I have found no evidence of material inroads. Boori purportedly making inroads but if/when hemnet does a success arrangement that will end that. Dominant players just don’t seem to lose share, when you look across markets

Again. Stole that idea from others too

Also like Hemnet long. Realestate portals are not going to be an AI casualty I do not think. You need a place for people to go for such large purchase/sale. People will not skimp on second best solution only.

All the short thesis’s sound like BS to me.

My deranged ways don’t lend to going long o

Next earnings release will be the test. Views on movie success will be short term determination of sentiment I suspect.

Annual report will not drop till like May though.

Usual buy back nonsense launched. I know managements well enough now to know that means nothing.

Should say trends for labubu

Have a look at pop mart in google trends. Seems the only way is south. Not my original idea, but I like it

Marginal need for compute from bitcoin gone then glut for Ai? Or how do you see the link?

Any views on catalyst for AI bust? I.e. what you would observe to know when it’s on its way down?

Painfully, I know this to be true

x.com/alexandruc4/...

Big thank you to the selfless content creators on here from whom I have and will continue to learn so much. I apologize the benefit flows all to me and I provide nothing to you.

I sound like I’m whinging there. I don’t mean to. The game is the game and without the risk you can’t have reward. It’s just frustration at a lack of growth on my part in choosing entry points

Yer I’m down with the praying higher, but you got to get short somewhere. The brain damage I got from 2021 I’m trying to learn from. I’m not sure I am any wiser, except being smaller

Is it the case that the vol level cannot sustain. If that is the case, the price must come down? Talking silver full stop here, not so much this single etf. There could be days of pain in the short but seems unlikely it can be weeks