Alvaro Schwalb

A group of handdrawn fish.

Why I 🧡 the web.

drawafish.com

Just draw the fish. Trust me. 🐟

Our work estimating the potential impacts of reductions in international donor funding for #TB is now out in @lancetgh.bsky.social:

bit.ly/3TDl28T

@raclark18.bsky.social @cfmcquaid.bsky.social @alexandra-richards.bsky.social @top-j.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @richardwhite321.bsky.social

Thanks for catching that!

Wrapping up the #CausalIntroCourse.

New systematic review led by @hannahrickman.bsky.social shows annual risk of Mycobacterium #tuberculosis conversion in men and women diverges during adolescence and remains higher among men throughout adulthood.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Figure 1. Estimated number of trial endpoints in the control group of a prevention-of-disease vaccine trial in a high disease-burden setting showing number of endpoints on the y-axis and time in months on the x-axis. For bacteriologically confirmed symptomatic tuberculosis disease endpoints only, we estimate 69 endpoints, and for combined bacteriologically confirmed asymptomatic and symptomatic tuberculosis disease endpoints, we estimate 151 endpoints. Scenario assumes symptomatic disease incidence before trial screening of 300/100 000 per year and following 10 000 individuals over 3 years. Prevalent symptomatic and asymptomatic tuberculosis disease are screened out in month 0 and are not trial endpoints. Active screening occurs every 6 months for both scenarios and participants self-presenting with symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis disease would also be investigated.

In our latest personal view in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, we argue for the inclusion asymptomatic #tuberculosis in vaccine trial endpoints to potentially reduce the size, length, and cost of trials.

doi.org/10.1016/S221...

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Leaving your hair wet as well…

Course notebook for Introduction to Causal Inference course

Kicking off the #CausalIntroCourse in Leeds. Hoping this will finally give me the tools to convince my mum that walking around the house barefoot ^^doesn’t^^ cause a cold.

The facts are simple and devastating: Aid cuts have already cost lives, and the number of deaths will continue to rise. Here’s the evidence. ​

Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza on 9 November 2023 amid Israel's bombardment and siege of the enclave, and intense fighting between the Israeli military and Hamas fighters in the north. Credit: Mohammed Zaanoun/TNH

LSHTM's Director writes to UK Government about #Gaza public health catastrophe

Professor Liam Smeeth's letter to the Prime Minister & Foreign Secretary urges action to prevent a greater #PublicHealth disaster:

👉 www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/n...

25th anniversary celebrations of the Introduction to Infectious Disease Our special event will celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and its Applications course, delivered by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Can you believe it’s already been 25 years!?

Come join us on 20 June 2025 at 4pm UK time to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to #Infectious Disease #Modelling course delivered by @lshtm.bsky.social and @ukhsa.bsky.social!

More info 👉 www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

Tuberculosis and climate change: analytical framework and knowledge gaps This report explores the intersection of tuberculosis (TB) and climate change, highlighting how climate-related challenges such as food and water insecurity, displacement, and disrupted healthcare acc...

TB & climate change: @who.int report out now, building on an analytical framework we developed to explore the intersections and implications for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease www.who.int/publications...

I fully moved to Bluesky when we @weratedogs.com made it here. This is why.

Amid all the bad news in Global Health, perhaps some good news? A first analysis on the risk of false positive diagnoses in community-screening for tuberculosis using Xpert shows our clinic-based data is likely (very) wrong and overestimates false positives by >80%: tinyurl.com/yfecute9.

Job Opportunity at LSHTM: Research Fellow The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is a world-leading centre for research and postgraduate education in public and global health. Our mission is to is to improve health and healt...

Are you interested in #TB and have experience in #modelling infectious diseases?

Come join us in the TB Modelling Group at #LSHTM!

We're advertising for a 1 year Research Fellow position, with a closing date of 30 May 2025 👉 jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Loved it! I had a problem with the other one.

Audience vote in #Eurovision.
What. The. Fuck?

A 1000%

The potential impact of reductions in international donor funding on tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries Background Tuberculosis services in many settings rely heavily on international donor funding. In 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) was dismantled, and other countri...

#Tuberculosis prevention and care relies heavily on international donor funding in many settings. In our latest preprint, we examine the potential impact of reductions in international donor funding for #TB - by the US and by other major donor countries. 1/8

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Line chart showing median number of TB deaths in 79 low- and middle-income countries from 2010 through 2040. A black line shows a decline from 1.25 million deaths in 2010 to just under 1 million deaths in 2024. A blue line shows the number of deaths staying constant through 2040 if 2024 funding and programmes are maintained. A red line shows the number of deaths increasing to 1.2 million in 2040 if US funding to national TB programmes is terminated.

New pre-print modelling impact of US funding cuts on HIV, #TB, MCH and family planning. We estimate impact of termination of US funding to NTPs via #USAID & The Global Fund may lead to 2.2 (1.5-2.9) million excess TB deaths between 2025 and 2040, reversing over a decade of progress.

bit.ly/4lowp18

A light blue diagram depicting the sea, with the water's surface at the top, and just below it is an outline of the Mary Rose, with the depth (12m, 40ft or 6.7 fathoms). There is a line showing the seabed, which takes a rapid dive into the vertical...

On the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic, we thought we'd answer a question that's often asked,

"If they raised the Mary Rose, why not raise the Titanic?"

Allow our scaled diagram to explain...

Tuberculosis and the climate crisis in Latin America: a predicament of poverty, migration and displacement Tuberculosis (TB) has long been associated with poverty and displacement, through food insecurity, overcrowding, poor living conditions and reduced access to healthcare, which significantly increase t...

Climate-driven migration and displacement and their potential impact on TB in Latin America gh.bmj.com/content/10/4... @cfmcquaid.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social

Great to be able to finally get this work out, closing out my time with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social

A year ago, I was tasked with creating a timeline for @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social and we came across this amazing example of a way to keep track of a group with a long history.
We now have a record of our history going back to 2011, and I hope that this can stay alive and continuously updated as well!

Update:
Passed, with minor corrections (2 typos and a table to add)

PhD opportunity @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelling intersection of TB (world #1 infectious killer) & climate change. Do apply to be part of a great group doing impactful work! www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/fees-a... @lshtm.bsky.social @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @laragosce.bsky.social

Hot off the press! 🔥 Our new systematic review digs deep into #TB cluster randomised trials, exploring how contamination can influence results, and offers insights for improving trial design #TBSky #IDSky #MedSky doi-org.ez.lshtm.ac.uk/10.5588/ijtl...

Within-country heterogeneity in patterns of social contact relevant for tuberculosis infection transmission, prevention, and care Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is driven by variable social, environmental, and biological factors, including the number and duration of indoor contacts. Social contact data can provide...

Reducing #TB burden requires understanding local contexts. Our new preprint emphasizes the importance of considering social contact patterns for interventions like active case finding, infection prevention & control, & cluster trial design #TBsky #IDsky #GlobalHealth

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

The potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines on the... : AIDS atical modeling, we explored the potential impact of a novel TB vaccine on TB burden in PWH in South Africa between 2030 and 2050. We compared the impact of a vaccine delivered irrespective of HIV sta...

📣 New publication in #AIDS led by Tom Sumner estimating the impact of new TB #vaccines on the burden of TB in PLHIV in #SouthAfrica 🇿🇦

@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
@richardwhite321.bsky.social

Read the full paper now 👉 tinyurl.com/ezhc9ppx