Bruno Castanho Silva

Bruno Castanho Silva

@bcastanho.bsky.social

Ass. Prof. of Methods in Empirical Social Research at FU Berlin and EB member @methodsnet.bsky.social Politics, methods, and occasionally memes https://bcastanho.github.io/

3,792 Followers 919 Following 285 Posts Joined Sep 2023
3 days ago

Tenho experimentado, e os comentários são melhores que 90% dos discussants em congressos

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4 days ago

Current exchange rate is 3.25 FIFA Peace Prizes

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5 days ago
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MethodsNET Summer School with CEU 2026 Registration Important Information Complete in English only. Do not complete in capital letters. The details provided for this registration will be used for all future communication and certificates. If you are no...

MethodsNET Summer School 2026 at CEU!🎓
Don't miss the opportunity to join our specialized tracks in:
• Causal Inference & Mediation
• LLM Tuning & Training
• Statistics in the Age of AI

🗓️ Deadline: April 20
🔗 Register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

#MethodsNET #AcademicSky #ResearchMethods

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1 month ago
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

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1 month ago
D04: Collecting Data from Large Online Platforms with APIs, Webscraping and DSA applications – MethodsNET

People often ask how to get social media and online platforms' data these days after a lot of them shut down academic access

This course by Noëlle Lebernegg at the @methodsnet.bsky.social summer school gets you covered 👇

Registrations open

methodsnet.org/course/d04-c...

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1 month ago
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3rd MethodsNET Conference 2026 – MethodsNET 3rd MethodsNET Conference 2026 The global hub for research methods innovations, excellence and smart use . 28-30 October 2026, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Th

The methodology evolution is coming.

On Feb 11th, #MethodsNET opens the Call for Proposals for our next conference. We’re looking for innovative takes on qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods.

Check out the conference details here: methodsnet.org/conference/3...

#AcademicSky #MethodsNET

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1 month ago
Headline of column written by Celia Walden, reading "Our woke schools should focus on education, not feelings"

Curious how that squares with focusing on education not feelings

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1 month ago
Peter Griffin looking annoyed with a bold print saying "oh my god who the hell cares?"

Feels like half the negative reviews I write these days could be replaced by this figure

Srsly people, don't underestimate the importance of framing and convincing your reader that your research is important. That's usually not as self-evident for others as it may be for you

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1 month ago

Thinking a bit too fast huh

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1 month ago

Oh the man complaining no colleagues wanted to have lunch with him is going on a popularity contest? That'll be fun

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1 month ago

Happy to be part of this project, and excited for the work ahead!

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1 month ago

Lots of takes these days on how "even after Trump the world will not see the US as a reliable partner anymore" from people who I thought would know that Latin America or the Middle East are part of the world

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1 month ago

Oh so brave to speak out like this, can we please interview him now on something he can actually act on, like idk supporting the use of Russian frozen assets to support Ukraine?

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1 month ago
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What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation « Political Science and International Relations# « Cambridge Core Blog For decades, political leaders, economists, and business elites have repeated a familiar warning: tax the rich too much, and everyone will suffer. Higher taxes on the wealthy, they argue, might reduce...

Here's a short write-up of our recently published study:

📰"What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation"

TLDR: Most believe taxing the rich brings equality & growth! Elite fears are not shared.

www.cambridge.org/core/blog/20...

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2 months ago

Applies equally well to academia

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2 months ago

Exactly my thought. The moment Trump would launch an offensive and Fox News starts selling it republicans and leaning independents fall in line

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2 months ago
Preview
What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation « Political Science and International Relations# « Cambridge Core Blog For decades, political leaders, economists, and business elites have repeated a familiar warning: tax the rich too much, and everyone will suffer. Higher taxes on the wealthy, they argue, might reduce...

A new blog post by @beckerbastian.bsky.social, @bcastanho.bsky.social and Hanna Lierse - t.ly/Cs6xb !
The article, entitled “Taxing your cake and growing it too: public beliefs on the dual benefits of progressive taxation”, is available here: tinyurl.com/2cc7x4jf

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2 months ago
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📅 Tomorrow: Registration opens.

Join leading experts for the MethodsNET Summer School with CEU. High-demand courses fill up quickly.

Secure your spot in the global research community.

#MethodsNET2026 #AcademicSky #Methods

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2 months ago

Oh Mechahitler is getting access to nukes cool cool cool cool cool

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2 months ago

There's a chance that for the first time ever these two groups largely overlap, no?

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2 months ago

This is textbook colonialism. And what I wonder is how long until people/politicians in countries with a colonial history in living memory start jumping on the bandwagon...

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2 months ago

Ao verme que primeiro roeu as frias carnes Friboi do meu cadáver dedico como saudosa lembrança estas memórias póstumas

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2 months ago

🥳 New year, new publication

📑"Contested memories: the political effects of de-commemoration proposals" @jeppjournal.bsky.social

With Francesco Colombo, we study a street renaming proposal in Berlin and find -contrary to conventional wisdom- no political backlash, but a positive feedback effect.

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2 months ago

Make a Bond movie academic:

Prof. Dr. Dr. rer. nat. No

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2 months ago
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🇪🇺🇩🇪 Published Today in @bjpols.bsky.social 🇮🇹🇫🇷

How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments:

shorturl.at/2ekBj

TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14

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2 months ago
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🚀 MethodsNET Summer School 2026: The Course List is Now Live!

We are thrilled to announce the course list for the MethodsNET Summer School 2026, held in partnership with @weareceu.bsky.social in Vienna.

Full Course Details: methodsnet.org/course-list/

#ResearchMethods #MethodsNET #CEUVienna

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3 months ago
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It's out!!

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Big thank you to my coauthors @small-schulz.bsky.social and @lorenzspreen.bsky.social, and to all participants who discussed 20 political issues over 4 weeks in 6 subreddit, 3 experimental conditions and let us observe.

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3 months ago

🚨 ‼️ Five days left to apply for the postdoc in Political Text Analysis in the MULTIREP ERC project 👇.

Use your last chance to apply 😉

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3 months ago

Really didn't expect matching/reweighting to be more popular than RDD and about as used as IVs

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3 months ago

Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us

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