Quantitative Economics

Using a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR), this paper links aggregate time series with functional variables. Applied to the oil–stock nexus, it studies oil market shocks using the full distribution of U.S. stock returns beyond moments. @hcbjornland buff.ly/kGpJdDn

Struggling to give economic meaning to your estimated factors? We show how sparsity can solve the rotational indeterminacy. Our L1-rotation criterion simplifies your loading matrix and consistently recovers any local factors. R package l1rotation included. buff.ly/HOMRTiJ

I study CCP estimation with a latent state measured by noisy proxies. Proxies help identify flexible latent-state dynamics. I apply the estimator to a dynamic model of labor supply and mental health. @YujungHwang3 buff.ly/M68sncg

Quantitative Economics Volume 17, Issue 1 (January 2026) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

With quasilinear utility, satisficing (imperfect optimization) looks less severe after aggregation: individual errors can cancel out. @JRehbeck buff.ly/kB2E1zU

Using micro data from 120,000 shale wells, this paper finds strong short-run price responsiveness of U.S. oil supply. Producers are forward-looking and respond to price signals by timing completion and refracturing decisions. @hcbjornland @tsgundersen buff.ly/0wB3xhi

Parents’ traits can bias reports of children’s non-cognitive skills. Using parent and teacher measures of child skills in a dynamic model, we show that this bias tends to mask maternal influence and can distort evaluations of childhood interventions. buff.ly/H8Oi42O

We show how to solve dynamic programming problems on a quantum annealer. Our new algorithms recover value and policy functions, avoid scaling bottlenecks, and already run on current hardware. We even solve the real business cycle model on a quantum chip.
buff.ly/xRWTYlE

Our talent-to-task model shows how tech + capital concentrate in complex tasks, driving wage & job polarization. Optimal policy: compress labor taxes, tax high-complexity sectors, subsidize low ones, and add a Pigouvian spillover term. buff.ly/cP3YgLN

How much can a principal gain when the agent learns instead of best-responding? No-swap-regret learning gives outcomes close to classic principal–agent models, including Stackelberg games, contract design, and Bayesian persuasion. @tao_lin_cs @YilingChenC buff.ly/hQKbvmj

Disruptive peers impact their closest social circle's learning. We study peer effects using network data to show how disruptive students affect their classmates’ outcomes. Crucial insights for education policy! buff.ly/dQ5r0gG

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 4 (November 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

We build a world economy HANK model for the Euro Area, Core & Periphery. Fiscal consolidation under current EA rules is costly, but aligning debt targets with historical values greatly reduces welfare losses. @xiaoshan__chen @lazarakis_s @p_varthalitis buff.ly/eZXPt91

How do durables affect consumption smoothing? Asymmetric information lowers their value as a smoothing tool. We measure lemons penalty for cars using Danish data and show income shocks sustain used car market @richardblundell.bsky.social @ran-gu.bsky.social buff.ly/3j30eyQ

Using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR, we find that oil supply cuts have large real effects but small on prices and oil supply increases have small real effects but large on prices. We rationalize this asymmetry through the behavior of uncertainty. buff.ly/pcaDo6G

China’s 2014–16 LTV relaxation spurred mortgages and home prices. Loan-level evidence + a quantitative model uncover a new housing investment channel: capital gains fueled upsizing while crowding out consumption. buff.ly/TJ7j8yQ

We develop an empirical minimax-regret policy learning algorithm which can assign never-before-observed treatment values to a population, by combining data on a subset of possible treatment values with shape restrictions on treatment response. buff.ly/S0hflec

The homogeneity assumption in dynamic discrete games allows pooling data across markets and time. This paper proposes an approximate randomization test for this assumption via MCMC, with an application to the U.S. cement industry. buff.ly/avaeEOS

Higher property taxes raise long-run welfare. By shifting capital from housing to businesses they lower house prices and interest rates and boost wages, thereby improving life-cycle consumption smoothing. However, current homeowners lose from such a reform.https://buff.ly/Py8ec3Q

The Executive Committee of the Econometric Society has approved an increase in the publication fees for papers in its two Open Access journals, Quantitative Economics and Theoretical Economics. Read more www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

We develop a stochastic macro-climate model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns. Quasi-analytical formulas allow to price various types of long-dated assets, including fixed-income products, derivatives, and equities. buff.ly/bQ2SxBv

"Many random coefficient choice models are nonparametrically identified, using exclusion restrictions. Logit shocks are not needed." @JRehbeck buff.ly/jkCr0xS

Why do crises leave lasting scars on markets? A model of Bayesian learning about rare disasters shows that beliefs adjust slowly: risk premia spike, asset values fall, volatility persists, and returns skew negative—even after the shock itself fades buff.ly/pWQVBOX

We challenge standard predictive algorithm evaluation, proposing Comprehensive OOS Evaluation via Statistical Decision Theory. Achieving this requires ML researchers to collaborate with econometricians and statisticians to tackle SDT's computational hurdles buff.ly/2xDJTkl

Quantitative Economics Volume 16, Issue 3 (July 2025) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

We propose a test for mean stationarity in latent volatility curves using high-frequency data. Applied to S&P 500 futures, results show strong evidence of nonstationary volatility—key for real-time risk, jump detection & market activity metrics. buff.ly/MFtu4Ou

We are excited to announce the following new AEs joined the board on July 1st: Esteban M. Aucejo (ASU), Job Boerma (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Liangjun Su (Tsinghua University) & Chamna Yoon (Seoul National University). We look forward to benefiting from their expertise.

We are thrilled to have Anna Mikusheva (MIT) and Fabrizio Perri (Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota) join the editorial board as Co-editors starting July 1st, 2025. While their focus will be respectively on econometrics and on macroeconomics, they will be handling papers in a wide range of topics.

On June 30, 2025 Garance Genicot and Morten Ravn stepped down as Co-editors of Quantitative Economics. We are very grateful to them for their contributions; the journal has greatly benefited from their insight and energy.

We are thrilled to have Bernard Salanié (Columbia University) take over as Editor starting July 1st, 2025. He will be handling papers in a wide range of topics, from applied theory to econometrics.