International and Monetary Economics Network

Highly relevant!

"The Causal Effect of News on Inflation Expectations" by Carola Binder, Pascal Frank, and Jane M. Ryngaert.

www.nber.org/papers/w34088

Food for thought!

"Buy Guns or Buy Roses?: EU Defence Spending Fiscal Multipliers" by Agustín García Serrador, David Sarasa-Flores, and Camilo Ulloa Ariza.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Highly relevant!

"Indirect Credit Supply: How Bank Lending to Private Credit Shapes Monetary Policy Transmission" by Sharjil Haque, Young Soo Jang, and Jessie Jiaxu Wang.

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

Defending independent statistical agencies and central banks is crucial. This statement by PIIE president Adam S. Posen on government data integrity is highly recommended!

www.piie.com/newsroom/pre...

Highly recommended!

"Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Borrowing" by Athanasopoulos, Fraccaroli, Kern, and Romelli.

"...the results highlight the key role of independent central banks as catalysts for reducing governments’ borrowing costs..."

documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...

Super interesting!

"The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks" by Lapo Bini.

"Using price surcharge announcements from the three largest containerized shipping companies, I construct a novel measure of global supply chain shocks."

lapobini.github.io/publication/...

📢Econ4UA is launching a working paper series on Ukraine-related issues! The first paper will be “A HIMARS in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush: Measuring the Real Economic Value of U.S. Support for Ukraine.”

Read more: tinyurl.com/wp-series

Submit a paper: tinyurl.com/cfp-form

#EconSky

...(iii) contributed to inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmits differently from a typical monetary policy easing, by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations." (3/3)

"I find that political pressure to ease monetary policy (i) increases the price level strongly and persistently, (ii) does not lead to positive effects on real economic activity..2/3)

Good timing! Great to see that there is an updated version of this paper!

"Political Pressure on the Fed" by Thomas Drechsel.

econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/pa... (1/3)

US Economy – How are you doing?

We expect a stagflationary episode in that meager economic growth and somewhat elevated inflation will occur together next winter. In our baseline scenario, the economy will not fall into a recession.

imeneconomics.substack.com/p/us-economy...

‘Knives out’: Switzerland descends into blame game after US tariff shock President Karin Keller-Sutter under fire for failed trade talks with Trump administration

‘Knives out’: Switzerland descends into blame game after US tariff shock https://on.ft.com/3UaZ8tX

US population growth slows. I have frequently mentioned this. Glad to see that Jed Kolko provides a careful analysis.

"...the breakeven rate of monthly payroll growth in the jobs report needed to keep up with the labor force has fallen from 166,000 jobs in early 2024 to 86,000 jobs in June 2025."

How Donald Trump remade global trade The US president has smashed the system, but the speed and scale of the smashing owes to a system that had been growing increasingly brittle for years.

Highly recommended!

"How Donald Trump remade global trade" by J Lipsky

"The reason the global trading system has worked...is that the world’s most militarily and economically powerful nation was willing to submit itself to the same rules as everyone else."

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Statement from the National Association for Business Economics

"The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the baseless removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency."

Very valuable!

"Racing Against Tariffs: Global Impacts of Frontloading" by François de Soyres, Nils Goernemann, and Chris Machol.

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Food for thought!

"Geopolitical Risk and Inflation: The Role of Energy Markets" by Marco Pinchetti.

www.banque-france.fr/en/publicati...

Opinion | The Trump Economy Stumbles The President has his new world tariff order in place, but jobs and growth don’t look so good.

The Wall Street Journal is right to be worried about the US economy.

"The Trump Economy Stumbles: The President has his new world tariff order in place, but jobs and growth don’t look so good."

www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

The credit channel of monetary policy: direct survey evidence from UK firms Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Highly interesting!

"The credit channel of monetary policy: direct survey evidence from UK firms" by Krishan Shah, Philip Bunn, and Jonathan Haskel.

www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Great news: Economists for Ukraine are launching a new working paper series on Ukraine-related issues

Editorial Committee: Tatyana Deryugina, Anastassia Fedyk, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, James Hodson, and Ilona Sologoub

econ4ua.org/working-pape...

The Fed cut rates by one percentage point last year, but has refrained from further cuts in 2025 partly over concerns Trump’s tariffs will cause a fresh bout of inflation.

Follow live updates: www.ft.com/content/1270...

Currency Dominance in the Digital Age Hélène Rey foresees a potentially destabilizing reshuffling of global monetary power shaped by "data integrity."

Insightful!

"Currency Dominance in the Digital Age" by Hélène Rey

"As digital technologies become the rails upon which money moves, the resilience and credibility of currency networks increasingly hinge on the integrity of technological infrastructure."

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/d...

Highly relevant!

"Tariffs across the supply chain" by Gnocato, Montes-Galdón, and Stamato.

"...import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted..."

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw...

Food for thought!

"Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, when Phillips Curves ... are Curves" by Guido Ascari, Alexandre Carrier, Emanuel Gasteiger, Alex Grimaud, and Gauthier Vermandel.

cepr.org/publications...

The IMF updated its growth projections for the world economy.

There are some upward revisions. But overall, global economic growth will still be modest according to the IMF. World output is projected to expand by 3.0 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2026.

www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Highly relevant!

"Digital Economy, Stablecoins, and the Global Financial System" by Marina Azzimonti and Vincenzo Quadrini.

www.nber.org/papers/w34066

Super interesting!

"Under Pressure? Central Bank Independence Meets Blockchain Prediction Markets" by Barry Eichengreen, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, Junxuan Wang, and Zijie Wang.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Transcript: Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell Marc Filippino talks to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Claire Jones and Lauren Fedor

Highly recommended!

"Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell"

In this Financial Times Swamp Notes podcast, Marc Filippino talks to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Claire Jones, and Lauren Fedor.

www.ft.com/content/c90e...

Wow, highly relevant!

"Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions" by Benoit Mojon, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, and Dora Xia.

www.bis.org/publ/work128...

So many important discussions about central bank independence. It's high time to have another look at interesting articles and books like this one!

"Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State" by Paul Tucker.

press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...