Super interesting!
"International Currency Dominance" by Joseph Abadi, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, and Daniel Sanches.
www.nber.org/papers/w34817
@intmon.bsky.social
The International and Monetary Economics Network covers a broad range of topics in international and monetary economics. The network comprises alums of the Universities of Bern and Basel and everyone interested in international and monetary economics.
Super interesting!
"International Currency Dominance" by Joseph Abadi, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, and Daniel Sanches.
www.nber.org/papers/w34817
Highly relevant!
"Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic?" by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Food for thought!
"ChatMacro: Evaluating Inflation Forecasts of Generative AI" by M. Jahangir Alam, Shane Boyle, Huiyu Li, and Tatevik Sekhposyan.
www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...
Our interview with the two authors is also highly recommended. For instance, their perspective on the Powell-to-Warsh transition. The full interview can be found here:
open.substack.com/pub/imenecon...
Super interesting!
"How Do Central Bank Governor Turnovers Affect Uncertainty and Lending Globally?" by Kristle Romero Cortés and Mandeep Singh.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Highly relevant!
We are looking forward to our next webinar:
EU Industrial Policy in a Fracturing Global Economy (Peter Obinger, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber)
⏲️ March 5, 12:00-13:00 Central European Time
💻 Online via Zoom, link will be sent
Registration here: forms.office.com/r/s1UnxDCWAK
Super interesting!
"Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy" by K. Forbes, J. Ha, and M. Kose.
"the role of global shocks has increased sharply over time and ...their characteristics differ from those of domestic shocks..."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Thought-provoking and highly relevant!
"The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling into Disorder" by Eswar S. Prasad.
"The Doom Loop offers ...makes it clear that old solutions cannot pull us out—we need radically new solutions to solve the world’s problems."
amzn.to/4aevrjp
Highly relevant!
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty" by Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Diego R. Känzig, Ramya Raghavan, and James H. Stock.
www.nber.org/papers/w34762
Highly relevant!
"A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios" by Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote, and Fabrizio Perri.
www.nber.org/papers/w34748
Food for thought!
"Monetary policy and private equity acquisitions: tracing the links" by Fernando Avalos, Boris Hofmann, and Jose Maria Serena.
www.bis.org/publ/work132...
This week's highlights for our active supporters: Global Economy Flash, Kevin Warsh, geopolitics as a monetary shock, job opportunities, and much more..."
open.substack.com/pub/imenecon...
Super interesting!
"A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model" by Oliver Pfäuti and Fabian Seyrich.
sites.utexas.edu/macro/2026/0...
US economy: We can expect solid GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 despite the government shutdown. The GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed is 4.2 percent (annualized). The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is 2.7 percent.
Our IMEN nowcast currently stands at 3.3 percent.
Wow, super interesting!
"Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto" by Barry Eichengreen
"In Money Beyond Borders, the leading authority on international currencies, Barry Eichengreen, puts the dollar’s prospects in deep historical perspective..."
amzn.to/4qCkXRz
Highly relevant!
"Financial Globalization: Risk Sharing or Risk Exposure?" by E Mendoza and V Quadrini
"We study how the increased cross-country ownership of financial assets between advanced and emerging economies impacted their financial and macroeconomic volatility"
www.nber.org/papers/w34689
Global Economy Flash – January 2026: Resilient amid headwinds, yet fragile
open.substack.com/pub/imenecon...
On January 28, the Fed will decide on its interest rates. What will it do?
open.substack.com/pub/imenecon...
German economy – How are you doing?
In our recent survey, a majority of our community expects gross domestic product to increase by about 1% in 2026. We are slightly more optimistic and expect a growth rate of 1.2%.
open.substack.com/pub/imenecon...
Super interesting!
"The Transmission of Foreign Shocks in a Networked Economy" by Pablo Aguilar, Rubén Domínguez-Díaz, José-Elías Gallegos, and Javier Quintana.
www.joseeliasgallegos.com/uploads/7/5/...
Super interesting!
"Do Anecdotes Matter? Exploring the Beige Book through Textual Analysis from 1970 to 2025" by Shengwu Du, Flora Haberkorn, Isabel Kitschelt, Seung Jung Lee, Anderson Monken, Dylan Saez, Kelsey Shipman, and Sandeep Thakur.
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
Monetary policy and political pressure: It's high time to have another look at interesting analyses like this one!
"Political Pressure on the Fed" by Thomas Drechsel.
econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/pa...
Food for thought!
"Fiscal Inaction as Monetary Support" by George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, and Christian K. Wolf.
www.nber.org/papers/w34654
Highly relevant!
"Tariffs as National Security Tools: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Framing National Security" by Gianluca Benigno.
National security "is about meeting subsistence needs under disruption risk."
gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/tariffs-as...
Highly relevant!
"Northern insights: Measuring geopolitical risk through Finnish news media" by Gene Ambrocio, Zuzana Fungáčová, Joni Heikkinen, Eeva Kerola, Iikka Korhonen, and Anni Norring.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Highly recommended!
"The future of the Fed: Central bank independence and fiscal dominance," speech by Janet L. Yellen.
www.brookings.edu/articles/rem...
Highly recommended!
"Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt" by Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, and Daniel Rees
www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
Highly relevant!
"You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine" by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld.
"The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies."
www.piie.com/publications...
Super interesting!
"Expanding the Landscape of Cross-Border Flow Restrictions: Modern Tools and Historical Perspectives" by Katharina Bergant, Andrés Fernández, Ken Teoh, and Martín Uribe.
www.nber.org/papers/w34615
Highly relevant!
"The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality" by Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman.
"...tariff pass-through to U.S. import prices is almost 100 percent, so the United States is bearing a large share of the costs..."
www.nber.org/papers/w34620