Daniel Redhead

**Part 1: From Bayesian inference to Bayesian workflow** 1. Bayesian theory and Bayesian practice 2. Statistical modeling and workflow 3. Computational tools 4. Introduction to workflow: Modeling performance on a multiple choice exam **Part 2: Statistical workflow** 5. Building statistical models 6. Using simulations to capture uncertainty 7. Prediction, generalization, and causal inference 8. Visualizing and checking fitted models 9. Comparing and improving models 10. Statistical inference and scientific inference **Part 3: Computational workflow** 11. Fitting statistical models 12. Diagnosing and fixing problems with fitting 13. Approximate algorithms and approximate models 14. Simulation-based calibration checking 15. Statistical modeling as software development

**4. Case studies** 16. Coding a series of models: Simulated data of movie ratings 17. Prior specification for regression models: Reanalysis of a sleep study 18. Predictive model checking and comparison: Clinical trial 19. Building up to a hierarchical model: Coronavirus testing 20. Using a fitted model for decision analysis: Mixture model for time series competition 21. Posterior predictive checking: Stochastic learning in dogs 22. Incremental development and testing: Black cat adoptions 23. Debugging a model: World Cup football 24. Leave-one-out cross validation model checking and comparison: Roaches 25. Model building and expansion: Golf putting 26. Model building with latent variables: Markov models for animal movement 27. Model building: Time-series decomposition for birthdays 28. Models for regression coefficients and variable selection: Student grades 29. Sampling problems with latent variables: No vehicles in the park 30. Challenge of multimodality: Differential equation for planetary motion 31. Simulation-based calibration checking in model development workflow **Appendices** A. Statistical and computational workflow for Bayesians and non-Bayesians B. How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis

Bayesian Workflow by
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, @rmcelreath.bsky.social with @danpsimpson.bsky.social, @charlesm993.bsky.social, @yulingy.bsky.social, Lauren Kennedy, Jonah Gabry, @paulbuerkner.com, @modrakm.bsky.social, @vianeylb.bsky.social

(in production, estimated copy-editing time 6 weeks)

The ENDOW project is seeking a Research Officer in Research Data Management to be based at the London School of Economics. - Oversee and extend our database covering geospatial, demographic, economic & social network data from 50+ communities in 30+ countries! - Contribute to research on the dynamics of social and economic inequality! - Join a stellar interdisciplinary team! - funded by the ESRC and the NSF [world map showing location of ENDOW communities; photos of some of the team members and some of the ENDOW communities showing their diversity

Research Officer in Research Data Management Salary from £43,277 to £48,220 pa inclusive of London allowance Fixed-term appointment for 18 months This research officer position is to work with Eleanor Power as part of the ongoing "ENDOW" project (Economic Networks and the Dynamics of Wealth Inequality), funded by the UKRI and US National Science Foundation. The research officer will be based in the Department of Methodology, a leading centre for research and education in social science research methods. While we expect this to be a full-time appointment, we are open to considering the possibility of a part-time appointment. The post entails overseeing and extending the database of the "ENDOW" project, which includes data from over fifty communities around the world, comprising economic, demographic, and social network data characterising each community, its resident households, and the individuals within them. The research officer will be responsible for the expansion of this database to include longitudinal data from each community site, implementing a robust data infrastructure to manage and curate this information. The research officer will work closely with Dr Power and data contributors to ensure data quality, standardisation, and appropriate governance. They will contribute to core analyses of the ENDOW project and develop tools and resources that will be of wide utility for the collection, curation, and analysis of cross-cultural data. This role is central to building the data infrastructure that will enable meaningful, productive comparisons across these diverse field sites and will ultimately serve as a resource for the broader scientific community. The successful candidate will: Have a completed PhD, be close to completing a PhD, or have other research experience that demonstrates the capability to produce independent original research Have experience with database design, data management and data governance Have experience with programming in R or Python

🚨Job alert! The ENDOW project is hiring a Research Officer in Research Database Management, to be based at @lsemethodology.bsky.social.

Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality.

Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Our new paper in Hunter-Gatherer Research!

We explored women’s decision-making power within households in two subsistence communities with different gender norms (BaYaka foragers & Bandongo fisher-farmers) in the Congolese rainforest ✨
www.liverpooluniversitypress.co.uk/doi/abs/10.3...

Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences

🚨Two weeks left to apply for our postdoc positions @tse-fr.eu @iast.fr 🚨

Join me, @giuliandr.bsky.social , & @zhgarfield.com, to study punitive systems across societies.

Full-time positions, 2 years, no teaching

Deadline: Jan 23

Please share and spread the word!

www.tse-fr.eu/groups/depar...

Early view of our Special Issue on the Anthropology of Adolescence at the Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute is now available!

Take a look at our introduction here, which also provides summaries of all the papers in the special issue:

doi.org/10.1111/1467...

Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences

🚨Two postdoc positions @tse-fr.eu @iast.fr 🚨

We are recruiting two postdocs as part of the ANR-funded project ENFORCE.

Join me, @giuliandr.bsky.social, & @zhgarfield.com, to study punitive systems across societies.

Full time, 2 years, no teaching.

Deadline: Jan 23

www.tse-fr.eu/groups/depar...

This week I got to travel back to Göttingen to participate in @benkawam.bsky.social’s excellent Ph.D. defence! It’s been an amazing few years supervising and learning from Ben, and I’m very excited to see what’s next to come in his research on causal inference and animal social network analysis ⭐️ 🐒

Gender-biased clustering of attitudes towards physical intimate partner violence: A social network analysis in south-central Ethiopia Abstract. Changing social norms, shared beliefs about what is acceptable, is a key focus of global health campaigns aimed at ending intimate partner violen

Another great paper using social network data from >5000 Ethiopians by @drsarahmyers.bsky.social, @danielredhead.bsky.social et al.

They show how attitudes towards IPV against women cluster socially on gender-homphilous ties. But opposite-gender ties actually predict *reverse* IPVAW attitudes
‬

Come join this exciting workshop on social network analysis and social transmission, all within a Bayesian framework!! 💻

And many thanks to @danielredhead.bsky.social and @mchimento.bsky.social for conducting it, I'm looking forward 🤩

More information below 👇

Did cooperation evolve because of conflict? Or is conflict an (avoidable) ‘by-product’ of evolved capacities to cooperate. I think the latter—>

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Retraction Watch has covered the problem of the “national IQ” database. Should be noted I’m far from alone in working to remove these publications. The spreadsheet of pubs which use NIQ - linked to in the article - was started by @kohngregory.bsky.social; a project also worked on by Cathryn Townsend

Physiological health outcomes of dominance hierarchies in team-based contexts Find out more about this fully funded PhD studentship opportunity.

Fully funded PhD studentship on human dominance hierarchies and non-verbal behaviour, with lead Eithne Kavanagh. Join us at NTU! @eithnekavanagh.bsky.social

www.ntu.ac.uk/study-and-co...

Postdoc position in individual-level incentives, social
learning, and payoff-biased imitation shape group-level accuracy in complex prediction and decision-making tasks in Konstanz

files.newsletter2go.com/l3slzozn/s_i...

Inferring the causes of animal social network structure from time-series data Behavioural ecologists aim to understand the causes of animal social structure. Connecting theoretical models of social structure with empirical observations remains, however, a for-midable challenge....

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

Trends of Friends – Time dynamics of Surface- and Deep- level traits in friendship formation and maintenance People become friends with one another primarily due to things they have in common, like shared demographic characteristics or shared interests. But o…

New Paper!

A chapter of my dissertation looking at the time dynamics of friendship has been published! We find decreasing emphasis of demographic characteristics over time, in favour of friendships based on interests. Interesting implications on clustering!

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🚨🐵 New MS: rdcu.be/eQDX7 ... behavioural syndromes are associated with how much individual Barbary macaques adjusted affiliative behaviour across multiple socioecological gradients... including human-related activity! (1/3)

84.Tom A.B. Snijders

🎙️ New episode of Knitting Networks!
Tom A. B. Snijders, emeritus at Oxford & Groningen, and a key figure in statistical models for networks. A journey from math to sociology, theory to method.
🎧 Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/2mrB...
@aespinosarada.bsky.social @franciscaortizruiz.bsky.social

📣 New BBS preprint out now! 📣

"Models casting egalitarian societies as crucibles of equality perpetuate the factually uninformed notion that foragers are somehow more noble. Critiques portray egalitarianism as romantic fantasy. Neither characterization is wholly justified."

doi.org/10.1017/S014...

“A snake with no teeth”: Urbanization shifts perceptions of men who support women’s empowerment in Northwestern Tanzania Achieving gender equality requires the support of all genders, but efforts to engage men in women’s empowerment initiatives have been fraught with res…

🚨 🐍 Our new paper on the consequences men face when countering patriarchal norms in rural Tanzania 🐍.🚨

We carried out focus groups and detailed interviews with a whopping 172 women and men about their perceptions of men who support women's empowerment... 📝 1/5

Social behaviour happens over time - so we can gain insights if we analyse it as it happened:

Behavioral data can be very detailed but are usually aggregated and normalized in ways that smother the dynamics. Ben wrote a continuous-time Markov model to improve on this, and also wrote simulations for exploring and validating pipelines. All the code is here: github.com/BenKawam/ASN...

Each dyad (a, b) moves through four discrete states over time, represented by coloured circles. The dyad remains in a given state for a certain duration, or "holding time", before transitioning to a new state according to state-specific transition probabilities, indicated by arrows showing all possible (non-zero) transitions. Paintings by Sofia M. Pereira & Judith von Nordheim.

New paper!

We propose a framework to empirically study animal social relationships by modelling social network (SN) data as time-series—that is, without the need to aggregate them over time.

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

New preprint w/ @fbartos.bsky.social , Ben Jones, and @tvpollet.bsky.social .
Our reanalyses found *little* evidence that sexual orientation is associated with 2D:4D ratios after accounting for publication bias. 🧵1/7

osf.io/preprints/ps...

Morality and the Gods Cambridge Core - Applied Psychology - Morality and the Gods

Free online for the next two weeks: @bgpurzycki.bsky.social‘s *Morality and the Gods*. www.cambridge.org/core/element...

High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market | PNAS There is a widespread belief, in both the scholarly literature and the popular press, that polygyny prevents large numbers of men from marrying by ...

🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

A causal framework for the drivers of animal social network structure Author summary Behavioural ecologists ask mechanistic questions about behaviour—causal questions. When studying animal societies, these questions often concern the drivers of social network structure....

Are you studying animal sociality?

My (now published) first PhD chapter proposes a Bayesian + causal framework to infer the factors shaping the social relationships that animals form with one another.

journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...

Social networking agency and prosociality are inextricably linked in economic games - Nature Human Behaviour Jia et al. experimentally show that when individuals can tailor their actions to each neighbour—a freedom termed social networking agency—they display higher levels of cooperation, trust and fairness in economic games.

New paper in NHB 📄🚨
We ran extensive experiments to show that making the rules of some canonical economic games looser, makes people more cooperative
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Postdoctoral Research Associate at University of Exeter Apply for the Postdoctoral Research Associate role on jobs.ac.uk, the top job board for academic positions in higher education. View details and apply now.

3yr PDRA at @exeter.ac.uk with @york.ac.uk and Centre for Whale Research, studying how killer whale social relationships change with prey availability, partner loss and social info. A fantastic team & unique longterm dataset. Deadline 19 Oct!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DOT336/postdoctoral-research-associate

The new Bayesian Social Sciences section of @isba-bayesian.bsky.social has just been created: bss-isba.github.io. The committee is myself as chair, @robinryder.bsky.social, chair elect from 2027, @nialfriel.bsky.social, program chair, @monjalexander.bsky.social, Treasurer, EJWagenmakers, Secretary.

Transmission networks of long-term and short-term knowledge in a foraging society Abstract. Cultural transmission across generations is key to cumulative cultural evolution. While several mechanisms—such as vertical, horizontal, and obli

Lovely detailed description by @haneuljang.bsky.social & @danielredhead.bsky.social of how knowledge & skills are differentially spread through the network of a forager village in DRC. And how this is patterned by own & contact age, kinship and relationship status