Doug Parker

I'm honoured to have represented @universityofleeds.bsky.social today at the 30th anniversary of the Queen Elizabeth Prizes at the Mansion House in London. Here I am with Alan Haywood, and our good friend Sue Gray from Reading.

What meteorologists should be interested to learn is that machine learning based forecasts share exactly the same Europe-Africa differences as traditional models. This supports the principle of fundamental chaotic limits on forecast accuracy, differing between regions, that no models can beat.

Our paper showing the differences between European and African weather forecast accuracy has appeared online. The results will not surprise meteorologists, but the international development community needs to hear this.

Weather forecasting in Africa needs to be done differently.

I had a SWIFT reunion with Dr Bethwel Mutai from University of Nairobi who's here for the Scenarios Forum. Bethwel is doing great work in Kenya and Somalia on severe weather prediction.

We're delighted to welcome over 300 delegates to the University of Leeds (and plenty more online) for Scenarios Forum 2025 ✨

Over the next 3 days, experts from across the world will meet to explore the development of global change scenarios, their application, and relevance to diverse challenges.

Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts Forecasts are essential for climate adaptation and preparedness, such as in early warning systems and impact models. A key limitation to their practic…

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
In this new paper we describe the trade off between forecast precision and accuracy. The smaller the location you are considering, the lower your forecast accuracy and to get acceptable accuracy we need to increase the spatial scale, the longer we try to predict

Dialogue between an artist and Flow John Hammersley and Douglas Parker

johnhammersley.substack.com/p/dialogue-b...
Art? Philosophy? Fluid Dynamics? Chaos? I very much enjoyed a dialogue with John Hammersley, which he has turned into something unique.

Dark skies loom over a street in Ghana. Cars travel up and down the street, with multiple people stood by the side of the road.

We’re teaming up with institutions in Ghana to combat climate challenges and nurture the next generation of scientists.

Ghana is vulnerable to lightning and storms, but researchers are working together to install ground-based data sensors across Ghana to help improve storm prediction. 🔭🌍

@ukceh.bsky.social

Recent Forest Loss in the Brazilian Amazon Causes Substantial Reductions in Dry Season Precipitation Recent forest loss (3.2%) in the Brazilian Amazon causes a mean 5.4% reduction in dry season precipitation 76.9% of reduced precipitation is due to decreased nonlocal water vapor, not local evapo...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
People associate tropical deforestation with carbon loss and ecological impacts. The deforestation also causes a reduction in rainfall, as we show in this paper.

LEEDS BOOK LAUNCH EVENT Join us for an evening of poetry and conversation with poet JR Carpenter and meteorologist Doug Parker to launch JR's new poetry collection Measures of Weather (Shearsman Books, 2025) Thursday 1 May, Workshop Theatre, Leeds, 18.30 Everyone is welcome. Admission is free. Book tickets via Eventbrite

Leeds launch event for Measures of Weather —Thursday 1 May 18.30 at Workshop Theatre. I’ll be in conversation with Professor of Meteorology @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social FREE! Save the date! Book tickets via Eventbrite. And please share! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/launch-of-...

YouTube video by AI UK How will AI transform weather forecasting in Africa

youtu.be/nzPzvdbswnI?...
You can now view our panel discussion on the future of African weather forecasting, from the Turing Centre's AIUK event last month.

poetry.leeds.ac.uk/events/launc...
I have been invited to contribute to the launch of J R Carpenter's collection of poetry exploring weather and its relations to language, culture and science. All welcome, 1st May at 1830.

As global temperatures rise, storms are getting more extreme. Our new study in Nature Geoscience led by @drexomole.bsky.social shows how the feedback with soil moisture makes them more extreme still, in various hotspots around the world.

WISER-EWSA friends, Nico from SAWS, Peggy from ZMD and @adriaanper.bsky.social from Tyrsky, Finland, as guests of the Mozambique met office, INAM, for World Meteorological Day and the 75th anniversary of the World Meteorological Organisation. This afternoon, back to nowcasting of storms.

AI-driven weather prediction breakthrough reported Researchers say Aardvark Weather uses thousands of times less computing power and is much faster than current systems

www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
They are calling this the second revolution in AI weather prediction. Very exciting. We have been working with this team at Turing & Cambridge and with our West African partners to develop plans to use these models to better support African agriculture.

Nice family group at the AI-UK meeting. Caroline Bain from @metoffice.bsky.social was my former PhD student and @michaelbaidu.bsky.social was hers. We are all on a panel to discuss the opportunities of AI forecasting for Africa.

ai-uk.turing.ac.uk/programme-20...
I'm travelling to London this morning with @michaelbaidu.bsky.social to join a panel discussion at AI-UK, the UK's showcase for data science and AI. "How will AI transform weather forecasting in Africa?"

It was lovely to catch up with Jemimah Gacheru from Kenya Meteorological Department today. Jemimah was visiting Leeds during her secondment at @ukceh.bsky.social .

luckysoap.com/apictureofwi...
I had the pleasure of meeting @jrcarpenter.bsky.social today, a practising poet and artist working at @universityofleeds.bsky.social. She is fascinated by history, culture and language in meteorology. I find this web page of hers to be quite haunting.

www.meteo.gov.gh/news/ghana-v...

Great to see @domspracklen.bsky.social explaining this fascinating @universityofleeds.bsky.social study showing that reintroducing wolves to the Scottish Highlands could help address the climate emergency 🐺

Read the full story 👇
bit.ly/4hFeNvM

Understanding the barriers and knowledge gaps to climate-smart agriculture and climate information services: A multi-stakeholder analysis of smallholder farmers’ uptake in Ghana The uptake of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and climate information services (CIS) among Ghanaian smallholder farmers remains low despite their prom…

New: Understanding the barriers and knowledge gaps to climate-smart agriculture & climate information services: A multi-stakeholder analysis of smallholder farmers’ uptake in Ghana - www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

ml-env-for.leeds.ac.uk/indabax-mada...

This hackathon organised in Madagascar by one of our students, Mendrika Rakotomanga, showed how AI is democratising weather prediction. 18 student participants were able to create an accurate AI based nowcasting system.

Improving early warnings of thunderstorms Meteorological experts and students are working together to improve early warnings of severe thunderstorms in Southern Africa.

www.leeds.ac.uk/main-index/n...

Championing Mathematical Physics in Edinburgh Professor Steve Tobias appointed Tait Chair of Mathematical Physics.

It is a great honour to take up the Tait Chair of Mathematical Physics at @edinburgh-uni.bsky.social. I will arrive in June 2025.

www.ph.ed.ac.uk/news/2025/ch...

Adriaan Perrels of Tyrsky Consulting has created an economic analysis of the value of short range weather forecasting and nowcasting in Zambia. His results are demonstrating the viability of investment in these services and will form the basis for business models.

Adobe stock image of a crashing wave with blue sky behind.

Dr Daniel Bradley, Head of Climate and Environment at the UK Mission to the European Union, is hosting a seminar discussing the EU-UK collaboration on climate.

🗓️ Thurs 13 Feb
⏰ 16:00 – 17:00
📍 In-person, SEE seminar rooms (Chatham House rules)

Register below 👇
climate.leeds.ac.uk/events/eu-uk...

Katharine Vincent is introducing a user engagement workshop with disability groups in District 13 of Kanyama, Lusaka. People with disabilities are particularly vulnerable to the effects of flooding. We are sending storm alerts to these communities and tailoring the content to their needs.