Julia Coronado

MacKenzie Scott: *donates $50M every 10 hours°

Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir: "I want to see people hang"

It’s #Caturday y’all and Stevie thinks we can all use a little chill

It means she is WILDLY popular

The pandemic burst in goods spending is firmly in the rearview mirror and, aided by tariffs and very high car prices, the goods share of the consumer wallet is back on a downtrend

They take them at their word then?

Market-based core inflation has settled a good 1/2pp above target, now the Fed is faced with the same tough decision it had when inflation was stable below target--how hard do you press to get to 2% vs. letting the labor market breathe? No risk free choices as JPow says
@laurarosner.bsky.social

Remember: Trump or Russian propagandists might say otherwise, but Putin is not winning, and the Ukrainians are not losing.

🙏

Last call for our Shadow Survey! We close it up tonight. Provide your views & you will get a complete set of results to ponder ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Looking at
@peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @claudia-sahm.bsky.social...

survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

Initial claims are subject to a big dose of noise around Thanksgiving, but stepping back there are real/growing tensions in layoff indicators. Are ineligible groups (contract workers, some immigrants, sole proprietors & gig workers) playing a bigger role? Are severance packages longer than usual?

Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here:

survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

Giving children tiny little bank accounts instead of food, education & health care so they can feel like they are "part of the American Dream"....🤔

ADP shows private hiring has essentially ground to a halt overall in recent months led by job losses among small firms

DOGE Isn’t Dead. Here’s What Its Operatives Are Doing Now Contrary to popular reports, DOGE has “burrowed into the agencies like ticks,” government sources tell WIRED.

NEW: Reports of DOGE’s death aren’t highly exaggerated, they’re wrong. Follow @makenakelly.bsky.social and @telliotter.bsky.social on a voyage into the federal agencies where all your favorite young engineers are burrowed in ”like ticks.”

Respondents to the ISM Mfg survey draw a straight line from tariffs to reduced hiring...

Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here:

survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

College Student Is Deported During Trip Home for Thanksgiving

She was first in her family to go to college.

She’d been in the U.S. since she was seven.

They grabbed at the airport on her way to surprise her family for thanksgiving.

They put her in shackles. Her ankles, her arms, and her waist.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...

My carrot soup is tastier than it has a right to be and is delicious slathered over leftover stuffing too!

idk globalization means food/culture have gotten more interesting everywhere--think of food in the UK! Or how KPop drives youth culture around the world. Interconnectedness makes life more interesting & happy (for most, it drives others to violence). US output per hour story is more biz driven imho

Understood, my point is more wonky. The availability of sushi over say just more BBQ and Waymo over a taxi and soccer over the Braves is not captured in the data or driving the trend cited. Those are quality improvements for you but mostly not measured in the NIPAs

I get that Atlanta has gotten much cooler over this time lol, fully agreed! But that is not the same as saying output per hour has risen

FWIW when I think of productivity over this time period I think of the digitization of communication (email, docusign, remote work + meetings + interviewing + banking, cloud computing) that allows business to function much more quickly & at lower cost across multiple locations

Funny example--was it wildly less expensive or faster to 1. obtain food 2. get from point a to point b and 3. entertain yourself? Output seems the same, was hours of input much less (+1 door dash driver vs picking up -1 Uber driver)?

Yes, scrapings of earnings reports post pandemic show companies managing headcount down more patiently through natural attrition & higher performance standards (for cause) than mass layoffs

Consumer confidence down in Nov overall but is that a Mamdani effect in the <35 crowd?

Monthly volatility in nominal retail sales + auto sales has stepped up this year (left) reflecting tariffs/tax credits/seasonal adj challenges, but nominal spending growth is steady y/y (right) implying a step down in real given pick up in prices & auto demand is cooling--moderate trend + volatility

A taxonomy of supply shocks and their effects on inflation | Brookings

...as part of this event @wendyedelberg.bsky.social reviewed an extensive literature & created a practical & useful taxonomy for thinking about types of supply shock and transmission channels on inflation. Highly recommend!
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...

DOGE was created for data theft and infrastructure dismantling and it wildly succeeded on both counts within the first few weeks of its existence. It will take a generation to rebuild what it destroyed and the breach of data is unprecedented.

The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings

Please join us shortly for:

The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...

“.. Durable goods prices in particular are behaving very differently in 2025 year-to-date than in 2023 or 2024.”

#Liberated 🇺🇸

- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social