Dr. Mike P. Moffatt

Charting Canada | Hunter Knifton | Substack There’s a pervasive lack of quantitative rigour in Canadian political commentary. This substack looks to change that. Written by Hunter Knifton, data scientist and senior consultant at Crestview. Opinions are my own. Click to read Charting Canada, by Hunter Knifton, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

Substack recommendation for anyone who has the dual interests of Canadian politics and data analysis - @hunterknifton's Charting Canada:

chartingcanada.subst...

My quest to complete every O-Pee-Chee baseball set ever produced continues. Out of 14,000 cards or so am now missing fewer than 500. But those 500 are hard to find. Just got 6 cards closer to the goal this week.

Feeding the Data Monster: Why Builders Are Beating Cities at Transparency An update in our development charge data series

We need better data to inform public policy decisions for planning & taxes, fees + charges levied on new housing. Proud to support @mikepmoffatt.bsky.social & @alexbeheshti.bsky.social in efforts to obtain data that govt's should have to be transparent
www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/feeding-th...

New MMI episode. REITs are often cited as being a primary cause of Canada's rental housing crisis. Today we look at how much truth there are to those anti-REIT claims and provide a provide a primer on how REITs work.

www.youtube.com/watc...

The federal government set a target to double housing starts to nearly 500,000 units. Meanwhile, the CMHC forecasts that by 2027, starts will only reach 220,000 - 50,000 *fewer* than in 2021.

Despite this, there is no urgency whatsoever from the feds to address this issue.

Something that I just saw in the revised CMHC housing starts forecast (which came out last week). They've reduced the forecasted housing starts for the GTA by 20% since the last forecast, which was 5 months ago.

The CMHC just revised their housing start forecasts, and they show starts falling through 2027 (and prices rising substantially after 2025).

Are any governments, anywhere, paying attention to this real-time collapse in housing construction?

New MMI piece! The federal government aims to halve development charges for multi-unit housing. Here are seven key considerations that need to be taken into account when implementing that promise.

www.missingmiddleini...

Is Alberta's infant and daycare that much better than Ontarios?

Table of the day: Proportion of 0-4 year-olds by Metro/Urban Area, Canada and Europe. Unfortunately, data set was lacking for some European countries (UK, Austria), etc.

Feeding the Data Monster: Why Builders Are Beating Cities at Transparency An update in our development charge data series

Latest at MMI. We made little progress getting development charge data from municipalities, so we asked industry. And they stepped up!

It's telling that it's easier to get government data from the private sector than it is from government.

Read here: www.missingmiddleini...

It's a very strangely structured initiative.

Bonus Sunday MMI piece, on what we know, and what we don't, about the federal government's promised cut to municipal development charges.

Read here: www.missingmiddleini...

Looking at just the adult population largely (but doesn't completely) controls for that, as the number of adults per household is far more stable.

Anyone who tells you "we're building enough homes just like we always have" either hasn't looked at the data, and/or thinks a 450 sq. ft. studio condo is equivalent to a 3-bedroom townhouse.

And semi-detached, etc aren't eligible for the federal DC reduction.

It doesn't have to be single-detached, no. But it does have to be legal to build.

Subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/airquotesmedia/channels?sub_confirmation=1 ***** #TheHerleBurly was created by #AirQuotesMedia with support from our presenting sponsor TELUS, as well as CN Rail. ***** Greetings, you curiouser and curiouser Herle Burly-ites! Last week on the p Housing Policy with Butler + Meredith + Moffatt | The Herle Burly

Was on today's Herle Burly episode with Ron Butler and Tyler Meredith (and David Herle, obvs.) talking housing. Tyler is one of my absolutely favourite people, but as you'll see at the end of the episode, when we disagree, we REALLY disagree.

www.youtube.com/watc...

There is a way to increase housing supply. Does Gregor Robertson have the will? The federal housing minister has a task before him that must seem impossible.

Latest by me in the Toronto Star, on how the federal government can simultaneously increase housing starts and enhance affordability.

In short, it comes down to lowering the cost of construction.

www.thestar.com/opin...

New MMI piece! Governments can reduce the price of homes by tens of thousands of dollars through a direct-to-buyer development charge system, without reducing DCs by a dime. Most of the savings come from reduced revenue to big banks and developers.

Read here: www.missingmiddleini...

Young Workers Left Behind: The Hidden Cost of Government Layoffs The ripple effects of shrinking the federal public service could mean huge blindspots in future policy making.

And for all the gorgeous dorks who prefer to read the transcript rather than watch/listen, here's a link to the blog: www.missingmiddleini...

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down the massive wave of federal public service job cuts and how they’re slamming young Canadians the hardest. From thousands of lost student and contract jobs to long-term impacts on housing, wages, and health, they reve Young Workers Left Behind: The Hidden Cost of Government Layoffs

Here's the full episode of the MM pod on the hidden cost of government layoffs.

If you enjoy the pod and would like to support our work, please subscribe to the YouTube channel :) youtu.be/aJullz0GmGA...

In this week's episode of The Missing Middle, @SabrinaMaddeaux and @MikePMoffatt break down the massive wave of federal public service job cuts and how they’re slamming young Canadians the hardest.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down the massive wave of federal public service job cuts and how they’re slamming young Canadians the hardest. From thousands of lost student and contract jobs to long-term impacts on housing, wages, and health, they reve Young Workers Left Behind: The Hidden Cost of Government Layoffs

New MMI episode! We break down upcoming federal public service job cuts and how they’ll hit young Canadians the hardest. A shrinking government workforce could shut an entire generation out of shaping Canada’s future.

Watch here: www.youtube.com/watc...

Spoiler for an upcoming piece, on the increase cost of newly built townhomes in the City of Toronto. Have to triple-check the math on this, but it gives a good idea of how reliant governments have become on never-ending home price growth.

Toronto's real estate market is so bad that it's costing the City millions in lost funds Toronto's recent housing market downfall has been financially disastrous not just for developers, investors and other property owners, but also for t…

Governments are about to take a massive tax revenue hit from reduced GTA homebuilding. Governments restructured their tax systems to make significant bets on home prices continuing to rise indefinitely.

Some tough decisions are coming.

www.blogto.com/real-...

Why Lower Construction Costs and Taxes Are the Only Path to More Homes and Lower Prices The GTA as an alarming case study

New MMI piece: Governments are trying to make housing more affordable while simultaneously increasing housing starts. But recent GTA experience shows that's impossible without substantially lower costs. First place to start: Lowering taxes on new homes.

www.missingmiddleini...

Well past that. The stuff sold during the pandemic is getting built.

I think this meets the technical definition of "not good". The sale of new homes in the GTA has virtually stopped.

It doesn't really. Entry level condos tend to have entry level finishes.