Austin Mock

The Las Vegas Raiders now own the best odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to @amock419.bsky.social's Projection Model.

Sounds like a lot of Chicago fans in Lambeau?

2026 NFL Draft: Each team's projected position - The Athletic NFL draft odds and projections for 2025. Track each team's chances of landing the top pick and draft position probabilities.

Significant changes to the NFL Draft order after the Titans beat the Browns today.

Odds can be found here:
@theathletic.com

www.nytimes.com/athletic/nfl...

Well, the Bears defense continues to force turnovers. A sack the play before.

Jordan Love was T-3rd in SPLINT% -- sack plus interceptions per dropback.

The Ravens can’t generate any pass rush.

Final thoughts:

Having Notre Dame ahead of Miami on Tuesday’s rankings and needing a BYU loss to jump Miami shows a major flaw (of many) in the process.

Alabama not being punished for getting blown out by Georgia is wild. I think there is an argument Miami should be ahead.

College Football Playoff 2025 projections: Odds to advance in the bracket for all 12 teams Our College Football Playoff predictions model is back. Check here for regular updates on CFP and national championship odds for 2025.

The College Football Playoff Bracket is set.

Who's the favorite? Who can make a run?

Find all the projections here:
@theathletic.com

www.nytimes.com/athletic/656...

Notre Dame should have got blown out in their conference championship game and maybe they wouldn't have been punished.

The head-to-head mattering because they punished BYU getting blown out in their conference title game but not punishing Alabama in their conference title game is what's going to kill the committee.

Why didn't the committee flip Notre Dame and Miami on Tuesday?

Remember that the metrics on ESPN mean nothing to the committee's process.

I don’t think they’re underweighting it, no. Notre Dame has been dominant this season and moreso than Miami. The committee believes that puts Notre Dame ahead of Miami where H2H counts.

I think the reason that there is debate between Miami and Alabama is because of that loss to FSU.

If Miami gets the nod over Alabama, don’t be shocked if they’re still ranked behind Notre Dame.
I believe the committee thinks there is a gap between the two.

Both teams are in the field and probably don’t see their seed change much if they play lesser opponents.

Sub Florida State for UAB and they’re in the playoff.

Miami is in the ACC. I said Big Ten and SEC schools shouldn't schedule anyone good.

If we used my blended rankings and I got to pick the 12-most deserving teams, here is what the College Football Playoff would look like:

1 - IU
2 - OSU
3 - UGA
4 - OU

5 - Texas Tech
12 - Vanderbilt

6 - Texas A&M
11 - BYU

7 - Ole Miss
10 - Oklahoma

8 - Notre Dame
9 - Miami

They could have played UAB instead of Florida State and they would be firmly in the playoff.

The real lesson here for Big Ten and SEC teams:

Do not play anyone with a pulse in your out-of-conference schedule.

The debate isn't between Notre Dame and Miami, it's between Miami and Alabama.

Alabama getting crushed yesterday paired with a bad loss makes this an interesting conversation.

I personally think the committee holds on to Alabama but there certainly is justification for Miami.

Despite me having Miami OUT in my bracket, if I was the committee, I'd have them in as the 9-seed and the final at-large.

1 - Indiana
2 - Ohio State
3 - Georgia
4 - Oregon
5 - Texas Tech
6 - Texas A&M
7 - Ole Miss
8 - Notre Dame
9 - Oklahoma
10 - Miami
11 - James Madison
12 - Tulane

If I were to use a blend of my strength of record and resume, here is what my Top-15 would be for the CFP Rankings:

What a race.

College Football Playoff 2025 projections: Who has locked up a bid? Who’s on the bubble? Our College Football Playoff predictions model is back. Check here for regular updates on CFP and national championship odds for 2025.

Is Duke in? Or James Madison?

Still debating Notre Dame, Alabama, and Miami for the final two spots.

CFP Projections here:
@theathletic.com

www.nytimes.com/athletic/656...

College Football Playoff 2025 projections: Who has locked up a bid? Who’s on the bubble? Our College Football Playoff predictions model is back. Check here for regular updates on CFP and national championship odds for 2025.

Is Duke in? Or James Madison?

Still debating Notre Dame, Alabama, and Miami for the final two spots.

CFP Projections here:
@theathletic.com

www.nytimes.com/athletic/656...

I think they would have enjoyed sitting on a two-score lead, yes.

College Football Playoff 2025 projections: Who has locked up a bid? Who’s on the bubble? Our College Football Playoff predictions model is back. Check here for regular updates on CFP and national championship odds for 2025.

Indiana is the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

How far does Ohio State fall?

Read here:
@theathletic.com

www.nytimes.com/athletic/656...

What a fantastic night of college football.

I played baseball at IUP when Curt Cignetti was coaching there -- and winning, google it.

If you would have told me that he would be leading Indiana, of all schools, to the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff, I wouldn't have believed you.

The key to beating Ryan Day’s Ohio State is making them methodically drive down the field and be efficient with scoring chances.

Indiana did every bit of that tonight.