James Murray

Chancellor Reeves statement this PM: "Our energy system is now more secure than it was at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

"In 2025, the UK imported 17% less gas than we did in 2021." (cont)

Tbf there are also arguments why it won’t make much difference to the tax base either. Maybe there’s a big find out there that would change that calculation, but that’s a much longer shot than the original article implies.
bsky.app/profile/tess...

Helpfully Tim Leunig accepts as a premise that more North Sea drilling won’t make oil nor gas more affordable in the UK.

But his arguments about tax and the strategic benefit of allowing more North Sea licensing are flawed in key ways (as well as in ways that James has pointed out). Long 🧵 below:

Europe’s impotence extends to energy The political momentum behind decarbonising the continent’s energy system has dissipated

War in Iran exposed that Europe failed to stand up to a business lobby that slowed decarbonisation

It committed a "strategic error of slowing a transformation necessary for security & independence....truth is that rearguard action on fossil dependence is bad for business"
www.ft.com/content/a6be...

Must admit, I preferred it when the calls for a clean energy 'war effort' were metaphorical.

From tonight's @businessgreen.bsky.social Overnight Briefing:

20mbpd went thru the Strait of Hormuz pre-crisis.

EV's may "only" displace 1.5mbpd now. But they're just getting starting. Wait until electric trucking takes off;)...

9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began

WE STILL DON'T HAVE A CLEAR ANSWER ON THE MOST BASIC QUESTION ABOUT THE IRAN WAR

WHY did the U.S. go to war?

A Popular Information review of public statements over the last 9 days found 17 DIFFERENT EXPLAINATIONS. Many of which contradict each other.

🧵

Are electric vehicles denting oil demand? Yes.

By how much? 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, according to EV Curve Futurist.

Caveat: These estimates are hard, but the numbers are certainly adding up.

so there's a rough [set of] rule of thumb in Economics on the relation between oil and inflation/growth.

for every $10 increase in the price of WTI:
-the fed [optimists] generally assumes +0.1%pt CPI, -0.1%pt real GDP growth
-most of the oil industry [pessimists] are +0.4%pt CPI, -0.33%pt [GDP]

the median case - which most macro economists will give you, including me - is about +0.25%pt PCE, -0.25%pt GDP growth. (hey, I do macro, we like round numbers)

so, a $60/bbl increase is +1.5%pt to inflation, -1.5%pt to real GDP growth. at last print, PCE is currently 4.7% YoY, real GDP is 2.2% YoY

I see your TACO and raise you STAR:

Some
Things
Aren’t
Reversible

I don't know anything about oil/the oil markets/the oil trade (be warned: I am not asking you to explain these things to me) so would say my life online right now is "child of probably divorcing parents senses that maybe the vibes are becoming increasingly off at home?"

Drive less to save fuel, motorists told

This is genuinely leading the Telegraph homepage

a man with a beard says serious people in front of a purple background ALT: a man with a beard says serious people in front of a purple background

Again, with feeling.

That is the same government that in 14 years delivered half of one nuclear reactor that was massively delayed and hugely over budget, and then in the two years after Russia's invasion failed to sign off on new SMRs or Sizewell C.

Getting strong flashbacks to the Boris Johnson government's response to the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which focused on new nuclear power plants and largely failed to mention energy saving.

This is either a crisis or it isn't. And if it is, you should probably be prioritising the things that can have a positive impact within months rather than decades.

Guys, you just need a couple of paragraphs to explain drilling and nukes take years, so we also need energy bill levy reform, EV charger VAT cuts, energy efficiency funding, energy conservation public information, planning reform, and turbocharged heat pump, solar, wind, grid, and EV deployment.

Still waiting for a single one of the North Sea 'drill, baby, drill' editorials to do 'all of the above' energy policy properly.

It would be one history‘s great plot twists if Trump has now managed to alert the entire world to why they should transition away from single-use fossils to renewables as quickly as any possible - even while having dismissed global warming.

And Hormuz isn‘t even Asia‘s biggest risk.

This is the largest oil supply shock in history in mb/d
The enemy gets a vote. Iran is now delivering pain to Trump via multiple paths
(1) Gulf Kings
(2) Financial meltdown
(3) AI tech oligarchs
(4) Fuel, fertilizer, food disruptions
Read our Polycrisis Dispatch:
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

'Blind spot': Poll shows anti-EV myths continuing to gain traction with the public Over half of non-EV drivers erroneously think EVs are more likely to catch fire than petrol models, while a third mistakenly believe EVs fail to deliver lifetime emissions savings

Worrying evidence misinformation about EVs is continuing to cut through, even as demand for EVs climbs. www.businessgreen.com/news/4526671...

Reports: Stellantis plans £50m electric van investment at Ellesmere Port factory Vauxhall-owner said to be planning to ramp up electric van production at its Ellesmere Port assembly line, despite on-going concerns over UK's ZEV Mandate

This is really good news. Expect the grumbling about the ZEV Mandate to continue, but the UK is gradually building out EV production capacity. www.businessgreen.com/news/4526662...

Daily Mail amends electric car story after Yougov poll showed public could have been misled Polling on whether the public had been misled by a Daily Mail story forced press regulator IPSO to rethink rejection of electric car complaint

Amusing and enraging story of IPSO somehow concluding clearly misleading comparisons were not misleading, only for polling from @eciu.net to show readers were indeed misled. pressgazette.co.uk/the-wire/new...

Text: If Europe stays on its current trajectory climate damages will drive debt-to-gdp ratios over 100% high than official projections in the worst hit eu countries. With a heat map showing the increase in debt-to-gdp ratios in different EU countries.

🚨NEW: The impact of climate change on our economic stability is being hugely underestimated.

Our latest analysis shows climate damage could drive the EU’s debt-to-GDP ratio 58 percentage points higher than official projections by 2050.

Good Energy opens clean tech installer training centre at Wiltshire college Workforce 2030: Energy supplier also plans to use facility to help train up its own growing workforce of home energy engineers

Much more of this needed, ASAP. www.businessgreen.com/news/4526643...

Rolls-Royce SMR and Equilibrion to explore nuclear-powered SAF production Two firms join forces to explore potential for producing low carbon aviation fuel in the UK using nuclear power generated by small modular reactors

Rolls-Royce explores SMR-SAF tie up. www.businessgreen.com/news/4526638...

If you're waiting for Trump to come to his senses - don't

- he's never facing another election

- he's got total immunity thanks to the Roberts court

- he will pre-pardon everyone who works for him

enjoy your Monday xx

Going to be a big summer for middle aged men with heat pumps and solar panels.

Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.