John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

“Remove her. She no longer amuses me.”

Easily one of the coolest inventions I've seen this year, for so many reasons. From The Week - April 25, 2025

‘The 10-day average of retail participation in non-profitable technology companies reached 23% — the highest level since a Goldman Sachs trading desk began tracking it — and rose to 25% this week.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Last week, the Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator, which uses options data to quantify investors’ giddiness, jumped to its highest level since late December.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“The latest bout of extreme crowding — currently in the 100th percentile — is in high-beta stocks. And this spans both riskier low value alongside speculative growth plays.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/720 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

🫤

The Impression of Invincibility - Hussman Funds With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable 'equity risk premium' gauge (estimated S&P 500 total retur...

July comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

‘With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in US history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

🤣🤣

S&P information technology index: price revenue ratio
hey, you do you.

I'd front-load too - does keep the narrative going for a bit. Hanging back slightly with hedge strikes (per Sep implementation) but my goodness are the overextension flags popping up. As usual, no forecasts are required, but yikes.

it's crazy how medicaid, food stamps, and poor people spike the federal debt every time we bail out failing banks, hand massive subsidies and tax cuts to corporations, or see a speculative bubble collapse - just crazy

‘The current instance of the S&P 500 price/forward earnings ratio is one the most overextended in U.S. financial history, consistent with likely 10-year total returns of about zero.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

Thanks Jean, that’s very kind 🐳

Always a good day when I get to read a Hussman market comment

Accounting Identity. Thank you @hussmanjp.bsky.social

The Bubble - Contains the Collapse - Contains the Resurgence - Hussman Funds If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can see the market collapse in it. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can see the bull market in it. Each is a continuation of the other.

"If someone reads my stuff and says 'Hussman is predicting X,' particularly as if we rely on X to happen, they didn’t read my stuff."

I have no pointed expectations. Maybe it holds up. Maybe it collapses. Risk is very high in my view, but fluctuation is enough.
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

The Bubble - Contains the Collapse - Contains the Resurgence - Hussman Funds If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can see the market collapse in it. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can see the bull market in it. Each is a continuation of the other.

"If someone reads my stuff and says 'Hussman is predicting X,' particularly as if we rely on X to happen, they didn’t read my stuff."

I have no pointed expectations. Maybe it holds up. Maybe it collapses. Risk is very high in my view, but fluctuation is enough.
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

37-40: Then the righteous will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty … or a stranger … or needing clothes … or sick or in prison … The King will reply, ‘Truly I say to you, whatever you did unto the least of these, that you did unto me.’

“For I was hungry and you gave me to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.”

Matthew 25:35-36

Badia Fiorentina, Florence

Nothing changed. It’s a risk syndrome not a forecast. The risks remain salient but not every single instance is “predictive.” If one ever reads it like that, they’re not reading it as intended.

The Bubble - Contains the Collapse - Contains the Resurgence - Hussman Funds If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can see the market collapse in it. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can see the bull market in it. Each is a continuation of the other.

New comment is up! Worth the wait I hope 🙂
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

May nonfarm payroll figure 44k higher than the figure reported in April. +139k - 95k in downward revisions for the prior 2 mos.

May Index of aggregate hours worked 124.4, down -0.3 from the 124.7 figure reported in April. +0.1 - 0.4 in downward revisions for prior 2 mos.🫤

This might be called "proxy confusion" - misreading the behavior of x rather than understanding it reflects y

"We've got a huge spike in 911 calls - the phones must be on the fritz."

Nearly every arbitrary, targeting, vindictive, irrational, capricious, retaliatory action of this executive branch is a violation of equal protection, due process, the take care clause, the nondelegation doctrine, and the prohibition of bills of attainder and ultra vires actions.

nope - nominal GDP rarely declines yoy during recessions, and comes nowhere near to explaining the spike in debt/gdp

blue line: inverted % change in GDP
red line: % change in debt/GDP

the driver of debt/GDP isn't ordinary structural deficits, it's discrete spending spikes and discrete tax cuts

It's the massive "stimulus," "bailouts," subsidies, and tax cut free-for-alls, particularly during crises and recessions, that spike debt/GDP. It's not investment, infrastructure, science, education, or aid to the most vulnerable among us. I do support tax credits for capital investment and R&D.

It's the massive "stimulus," "bailouts," subsidies, and tax cut free-for-alls, particularly during crises and recessions, that spike debt/GDP. It's not investment, infrastructure, science, education, or aid to the most vulnerable among us. I do support tax credits for capital investment and R&D.

How a fact-free demagogue lures others to their worst selves

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports that only 1% of border apprehensions have prior convictions, 19 of 20 non-violent.

And a thread on "waste, fraud, and abuse"

➡️ bsky.app/profile/huss...

the argument isn't that government drives growth, it's that broad tax cuts aren't productive in generating it. If you want more growth, you've got to encourage productive investment (including R&D and education) directly, aware of positive spillovers - not by juicing "wealth"