Naomi Smith

No 10, Treasury, the Home Secretary's own team and the perm secretary should not let senior ministers make up stats.

Its a breach of the code to do it deliberately. Some of those involved may not realise this wasn't just sleight of hand on a 30 year lifetime cost, but a false claim about the policy

Charts 17 + 21 show that the Home Sec would only save this imaginary £10bn (when the care workers and dependents turn 65 in 2050s & beyond) if she makes them all leave now, or [BEST fiscal case] let's them stay for 25 years but makes them leave at 65
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/693810...

That’s my weekend reading sorted @snellarthur.bsky.social 👏

Get yours at uk.bookshop.org/shop/quietriot

Ros articulated really well what a lot of us were concerned about. It was always the thin edge of the wedge.

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left?

Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems.

Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

For every ONE who is horrible enough to say it out loud, I try to mentally calculate how many are thinking it in silence.

Chart showing lifetime average GDP growth for Brits by year of birth. 20-year-old Brits have experienced an average of 1.4% growth, compared with 2.4% for 75-year-olds

Part of the issue is a lack of growth. A recent study showed that cohorts who experience more GDP growth in their lifetimes are more likely to trust the government and have positive perceptions of their living standards. academic.oup.com/qje/advance-... In Britain, such voters are dying out

At the same time, home ownership is increasingly out of reach. Youth unemployment is at the highest point for a decade (excl a moment at peak lockdown). Young people fear AI replacing white collar jobs. Polanski took over at the moment of greatest anxiety for his party's prospective voters

Chart showing real median salaries by graduate status. Postgrads have declined 17%, grads 12% and non-grads by 3%

Since 2007, real median postgrad salaries have declined by 17% and 12% for undergrads (*before* accounting for student loans!). The narrative of the 2010s was dominated by the status-loss of industrial workers, the 2020s might be the decade of disappointed grads

I'm so sorry that must have been appalling for her.

Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

I’ve spent years, decades, obsessing over the Bush Administration’s Iraq WMD lies, writing about them, debunking them.

I can think of no lie about Iraq WMDs told by Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et al that comes even close to the enormity and absurdity of this lie from Donald Trump.

It was never about trade relations. It was about wealthy, far right disruptors attempting to destabilise and undermine our democracies.

Group of people on House of Commons terrace smiling holding reports

Discussion around seated breakfast table

Timi and Will holding copies of the report

This morning the Fairness Foundation and the Black Equity Organisation launched our new joint report in Parliament on the UK’s racial wealth gap.

Combining evidence and case studies, it reveals the scale of racial wealth inequality today.

Read more 👇
fairnessfoundation.com/a-tale-of-tw...

Couldn't agree more with @rostaylor.bsky.social here. My fear in 2016 was that a leave vote would unleash far more sinister opinions and the beginning of ethno-nationalism

www.thenewworld.co.uk/ros-taylor-o...

"Her focus on so-called ‘pull-factors’ – an approach tried and tested without success by Conservative Home Secretaries before her – has been shown not to work." Our @sundersays.bsky.social on Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's speech today.

The Home Secretary says three new "safe and legal" routes for asylum and refugees

(1) new student refugee route, opens Autumn 2026, from Autumn 2027 for those

And (2) a refugee worker route

Also (3) community sponsorship

I don't think there are timelines for 2 and 3

Marking 70 years of UK refugee protection - British Future 70 years since Britain signed the UN Refugee Convention, refugees from seven decades came together to mark this anniversary.

Shabana Mahmood says Labour values & 1951 that refugee convention is protection should be temporary

The practice of refugee protection in each of last 7 and a half decades has been that some have gone back & many have become British

Here are their stories

www.britishfuture.org/70-years-of-...

At least 100 Labour MPs oppose tripling settlement timelines for many 2022-24 arrivals. The govt response to the settlement consultation is still to come. Mahmood says she will next month change the language threshold in immigration rules.

Shows hasn't got this decision agreed yet in government

Home Secretary has an HMG backdrop for her speech then an ippr in conversation backdrop.

Harry Quilter-Pinner says immigration policy does need to be about control, contribution and compassion, but there are questions about whether the current policy strikes that balance & other policy impacts

Exactly this. ⬇️

@jeevunsandher.bsky.social: "Members opposite promised us that by torching our relationship with Europe, it would make us richer and it would make us stronger.

"They were wrong on both counts."

Who will rid us of this flatulent beast?

Here’s a graph of my pension. It’s a relatively risk adverse, & divested from fossil fuels etc. You can’t predict fluctuations in the market, but it’s a good illustration how much damage is being done to people’s savings for the future by one man repeatedly doing stupid things.

It never rains... Podcast Episode · Quiet Riot · 5 March · 1h 13m

⚡ NEW: It Never Rains...

Reeves (and the rest of the world) tries to plot an economic course, while Trump tries to blow her (and the rest of the world) off it.

When chaos reigns is there any point to having a plan?

🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/5BgO...

🍏 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/q...

Yes, Keir Starmer must do better and go faster in bringing Britain closer to Europe. Here’s how to reset his reset | Naomi Smith MPs warn the plan so far lacks direction and drive, but there are four clear ways to really move on from our disastrous Brexit, says Naomi Smith of Best for Britain

“Four ways to a better, happier, more successful You” - no, not a pre-beach diet, but some really good advice for the Labour gov’t.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Yes, Keir Starmer must do better and go faster in bringing Britain closer to Europe. Here’s how to reset his reset | Naomi Smith MPs warn the plan so far lacks direction and drive, but there are four clear ways to really move on from our disastrous

👏 Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith (@pimlicat.bsky.social) lays out exactly how Starmer can go further and faster in the UK and EU relationship.

🇬🇧🇪🇺 A closer UK and EU is a stronger and more united Europe.

Read below 👇

May 2026 elections: Weekend voting to be piloted in the UK Findings from the experiment will be published later this year and inform future electoral reform.

Voting on a Thursday, when many people are at work, has some pretty obvious downsides – so it's great to see the government trialling early voting in Tunbridge Wells, Cambridge, and North Hertfordshire in the coming elections. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

If it's not bone spurs...

The baseless innuendo of “family voting” The extraordinary decision by Democracy Volunteers to shroudwave about “family voting” for the Gorton and Denton by-election has damaged both trust in the political system and harmed ra…

Next time anyone you speak to says, 'yeah but family voting', make sure you've read this and have it up your sleeve.

@jamesgraham.theliberati.net 👏

www.theliberati.net/quaequamblog...

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Loving the work of the South Park gang here www.draftbarrontrump.com